By P.K.Balachandran
Colombo, March 27: Of late, both President Joe Biden and his Republican challenger Donald Trump appear to be toeing a softer line on Gaza. The change is attributed to public opinion in the US which is increasingly supporting a permanent ceasefire.
Public opinion matters at this juncture given the fact that this is an election year in which Biden and Trump are vying for the same office.
In Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is receiving heavy flak for his unrealistically macho stance against the Palestinians and the US. But the difference between the American politicians and Netanyahu is that while the former appear to be bending to public opinion, Netanyahu is not.
Therefore, unless Netanyahu steps down or is made to step down by the Israeli people, the war in Gaza will continue. And the US will be a mute spectator, wringing its hands in despair.
Biden and Trump
Biden has been working for a ceasefire using the UN and the shuttle diplomacy of Secretary of State Antony Blinken. On his part, Trump has warned Israel that it is “losing support in the world” because it is unable to “finish up the war.” He criticised Israel for publicising the destruction that it wrought in Gaza as that has spoilt its case.
Neither Biden nor Trump is a votary of the cause of the Palestinians and both of them are firm supporters of Israel. If Trump shifted the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem to support Israel’s claim to that city, Biden has openly said that he is a Zionist.
If Biden and Trump are wishy washy now and trying to cover up the mess, it is because they are facing an election and opinion polls suggest that the people, across the Democratic-Republican divide, are against the senseless and genocidal war the US is in the thick of as a supporter of Israel.
Biden and Trump fear that a continued gung-ho attitude might cost them dearly at the polls.
The Survey
A survey done by “Data for progress” in February found widespread support for US calling for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and conditioning military aid to Israel.
Around two-thirds of voters (67%) — including majorities of Democrats (77%), Independents (69%), and Republicans (56%) — supported the US calling for a permanent ceasefire and a de-escalation of violence in Gaza.
This represents a 6-point increase in support for the US calling for a permanent ceasefire since Data for Progress last polled this question in November 2023.
Voters were then asked the same question along with their view on the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza. Voter support for the US calling for a permanent ceasefire had increased to 74%, a 7-point increase.
Voters were asked whether a ceasefire should occur only once Hamas had been defeated. The voters still supported the US calling for a permanent ceasefire by a plus 15-point margin, with half of voters (50%), including a majority of Democrats (63%) and Independents (53%), agreeing that “the U.S. should call for a permanent ceasefire and de-escalation of violence in Gaza right now.”
However, 35% of voters, including a majority of Republicans (52%), said “the U.S. should not call for a permanent ceasefire and de-escalation of violence in Gaza until Hamas is defeated.”
Requiring Israel to agree to certain conditions related to human rights and the resolution of the war in Gaza to receive military aid from the US was broadly popular, the survey found.
Voters supported placing the following conditions on aid to Israel: guaranteeing the right of displaced Palestinians to be able to return to their homes in Gaza following the conclusion of the war; committing to peace talks with the Palestinians for a Two-State solution; committing to a de-escalation of violence in Gaza and stopping any indiscriminate bombing to protect Palestinian civilians; pledging to stop building settlements in the Palestinian territories, which violates international law; and pledging to not occupy Gaza following the conclusion of the war.
When asked about Biden’s recent executive order that the US will impose financial sanctions and visa bans on Israeli settlers who had engaged in violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, 61% of voters, including a majority of Democrats (80%) and Independents (61%), said they supported the executive order.
When voters were asked whether they support or oppose Israel fully controlling all Palestinian territories following the conclusion of this conflict, they opposed with 51% in opposition.
Conversely, by a plus 50-point margin, voters supported a proposed “Two-State solution” to the Israel-Palestine conflict, by which both Israel and Palestine would be globally recognized as independent, sovereign nations that are subject to and protected by international law. This included 75% of Democrats, 66% of Independents, and 61% of Republicans.
Rashida Tlaib’s Proposal
When voters are asked about Congresswomen Rashida Tlaib’s new bill, entitled “Stop Politicians Profiting From War Act” — which would ban members of Congress, their spouses, and dependents from trading stocks or having any financial interests in companies that have contracts with the Department of Defence — more than 80% of voters across party lines said they support the legislation.
In sum, support for the US calling for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza increased over the last three months, and voters preferred a “Two-State solution” over Israel controlling all Palestinian territories following the war.
Netanyahu Unpopular
In the Hebrew-language newspaper “Ma’ariv”, Ben Caspit described the approach of the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the war as “delusional”, “madness” and “terrifying”, adding: “This man is putting us all at risk: our future, our children’s future, the strategic alliance that is the keystone of Israeli national security.”
Equally damning was the lead editorial in the left-leaning Israeli newspaper “Haaretz”, which described Netanyahu as “Israel’s agent of destruction” who “has become a burden for Israel”.
“He is exposing it to strategic risks that could exact a very heavy price. For the sake of his own political survival, he is wilfully harming Israel’s citizens. He must resign and give Israel a chance to rescue itself from the damage he has caused.” Haarez said.
The centre-right “Yedioth Ahronoth” columnist Nahum Barnea said “Netanyahu has been dealing with America the way a spoiled teenager deals with his parents: with perpetual rebellion, perpetual insults and perpetual scandals.”
Outside the media, the renewed calls for Netanyahu to resign were echoed by others including Gershon Baskin, who was involved in the negotiations to secure the release of the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit over a decade ago.
“Netanyahu is off the rails,” wrote Baskin on X. “He is an existential danger to Israel. He must be gone from our lives.”
Israeli commentators say that Netanyahu has sought to pick a fight with Biden to appear “strong”.
Trump might take harder line Later
However, if Trump comes to power, he may be persuaded to be more pro-Israel than Biden. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and a former senior White House adviser who led the Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, described the war in Gaza “a little bit of an unfortunate situation,” but added that “from Israel’s perspective I would do my best to move the people out (of Gaza) and then clean it up.”
New York Times quotes David M. Friedman, who was ambassador to Israel during Trump’s administration, critiquing Vice President Kamala Harris for saying that the 1.5 million Palestinians crowded into the southern Gaza city of Rafah had nowhere to go if Israel attacked.
Friedman said that Gaza’s Palestinians “could always emigrate.”
“She (Harris) ‘studied the maps’ and concluded that the people in Rafah have no place to go,” Friedman wrote. “It must have been an awfully small map — obviously left out Egypt and other Arab countries.”
END
