What’s at stake at the LG polls?

 By kassapa

The local government elections, now scheduled by the Elections Commission for May 6, has been a long time coming. The polls were originally scheduled for March 9, 2023. Then President Ranil Wickremesinghe postponed the election citing a lack of funds as the country was in the throes of an economic crisis.

Wickremesinghe tried every trick in the book- and a few not in it- to stall the election during his time in office as stand-in President for Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Once, he famously remarked, “there is no election, even if there was an election, there is no money,” in Parliament. He succeeded in not conducting the poll during his brief term but ended up earning the censure of the Supreme Court which ruled he had violated the fundamental rights of voters in his capacity as Minister of Finance.

Now, the election is finally being held, two years and two months later. The political landscape has changed radically since then: the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) is in office with Anura Kumara Dissanayake as President and enjoying a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Almost all mainstream parties have been wiped out of the electoral map, save for the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) which is once again the main opposition party in Parliament.

The May 6 poll, whatever its outcome, will not alter the balance of power in the country. A low voter turnout, possibly as low as being between 50 to 60 per cent is being predicted. Despite these handicaps, this election is important not only for the ruling JJB and the main opposition party the SJB but also for several other political parties.

From a JJB perspective, it is expected to win the most number of local councils. If they do, that wouldn’t surprise anyone because they swept the board at the general election even in the North, East and plantation regions at the general election just over four months ago. In fact, it will be a rude shock to the JJB if they do not secure the most number of councils at stake.

However, the JJB cannot afford to be complacent. While Dissanayake still remains a popular and trusted figure who has not had his credibility tarnished, the same cannot be said about several of his leading ministers and some JJB parliamentarians. Many of them have a penchant to make the most ridiculous statements and have become the butt end of jokes, particularly in social media.

It is also a talking point among many voters that they haven’t witnessed the ‘system change’ that the JJB promised from election platforms during their campaign. What little change there has been, has been very slow. The redeeming features for the JJB have been Dissanayake’s integrity, their adherence to a non-corrupt culture at least for now and the relative weakness of the combined opposition which lacks a charismatic leader to shepherd them.   

The May 6 election is arguably most crucial for the SJB. Badly defeated at both the presidential and general elections where it emerged a very distant second and rocked by the recent resignation of its chairman, the much-respected Imthiaz Bakeer Markar, a crushing defeat at the election could be the beginning of the end for the SJB. It will also put party leader Sajith Premadasa in a perilous position as many are already questioning his skills as a politician and his suitability to lead the major opposition party.  

Previously there has been a pattern of the right-of-centre United National Party (UNP) securing control of councils in urban areas even when the rest of the country voted otherwise. The UNP’s vote base is almost non-existent now and is believed to have accrued en masse to the SJB. The SJB can save face and live to fight another election- and maybe Premadasa can even continue as leader- if it can secure these urban councils which are mostly municipal councils but that is no easy task if the November 24 voting sentiments still resonate.

Of particular interest will be the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC). The CMC has only had one mayor who has not been endorsed by the UNP. That was way back in 1954 when Dr. N.M. Perera of the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) was elected. A.H. M. Fowzie was elected from the UNP but later crossed over to the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). Even when the UNP nomination list was rejected in 2006, an independent group backed by the UNP won.

With a UNP victory highly improbable, the SJB cannot be faulted for believing it can win the CMC now. However, it has chosen Dr. Ruvaiz Haniffa, a respected medical professional but a relative unknown in political circles as its mayoral candidate instead of either Eran Wickramaratne or Hirunika Premachandra, possibly with the hope of attracting the Muslim bloc vote. Haniffa will be up against Vrai Cally Balthazaar from the JJB and former mayoress Rosy Senanayake of the UNP. In the final count, it may the division of the middle-class vote between the UNP and the SJB that could hurt Haniffa’s prospects.

The UNP is highly likely to end up as an ‘also ran’ at this election. They are aware of this, which is why they attempted to tie-up with the SJB but personal agendas prevented that. In that sense, the May 6 election could well be the final nail in the coffin for the UNP which still pretends to be a major political party.

As for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), it will see any gains as a bonus. It will secure representation in some councils and if it does in fact win a council, that will be both a massive surprise as well as a big bonus. Since it polled just three per cent of the vote at the general election, anything more than that could be interpreted as an “improvement”.

The SLFP is almost dead and buried but is trying to stage a miraculous resurrection at this election, contesting as the ‘Podujana Eksath Peramuna’ with the ‘chair’ symbol. It is unclear who the leader of this entity is. Maithripala Sirisena has deliberately kept away from the limelight but Chandrika Kumaratunga is reported to have given her blessings.

Therefore, despite its lack of impact on the bigger political picture, the May 6 local government polls will be a litmus test for all major political parties, the ruling JJB included. That is also why voters should get out and have their say in this much anticipated election.