In the first days of his Presidency, all eyes have been on President Ranil Wickremesinghe to ascertain what direction he will take. Bereft of power and a majority in Parliament which he needs to govern, will he meekly toe the Rajapaksa line or will he fashion a political path of his own?
At the time of writing, Wickremesinghe is yet to reveal his Cabinet. Therefore, it is difficult to provide a definite answer to that question. Nevertheless, there are signs that Wickremesinghe will try- as much as he is allowed- to resurrect his political prospects and perhaps vie for a second term.
We do not subscribe to the view that Ranil Wickremesinghe is either a great politician or a political strategist par excellence. The former is self-evident: he never fully served any of his six terms as Prime Minister. He presided over the demise of the United National Party (UNP) over the past twenty-eight years. He contested the presidential polls twice and lost- and repeatedly shied away from contesting thereafter.
What Wickremesinghe gets full marks for is resilience, perseverance and his ‘never-say-die’ attitude. That is why defeated at the 2020 August general elections and sent home, he did not resign from the UNP’s leadership but stayed on, much to the chagrin of the likes of Navin Dissanayake.
Wickremesinghe’s accidental ascension to the Presidency on July 20 was also not a masterstroke by a Machiavellian strategist. Having been unlucky at crucial times in his political career, he happened to be at the right place at the right time
he was Prime Minister when Gotabaya Rajapaksa had to flee from President’s House, fearing for his life. Wickremesinghe then became President in the only way possible- not by popular vote but by manipulating MPs in Parliament.
True, he accepted the Premiership when others baulked at it but that was without any preconditions- unlike Sajith Premadasa who had the courage to withstand the temptation and stay true to political principles. With nothing to lose, Wickremesinghe took what was on offer and that turned out to be a political jackpot. Now in power and place, what will Wickremesinghe’s next steps be?
Some coming events are casting their shadows. Wickremesinghe has lost no time in appointing his loyal servants in the UNP as presidential advisors. The names are all too familiar: Sagala Ratnayake, Akila Viraj Kariyawasam and Ruwan Wijewardene, to name a few. There is speculation that the disgraced Ravi Karunanayake, implicated in the Central Bank bond scam, will join the ‘team’ soon.
Last week, President Wickremesinghe undertook the customary visit to the Dalada Maligawa in Kandy. The audience he addressed in Kandy consisted of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna parliamentarians. Former minister Mahindananda Aluthgamage, formerly a vociferous critic of Wickremesinghe, made the speech welcoming him. Later in the week, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) parliamentarian Sanjeewa Edirimanne extolled Wickremesinghe’s virtues, hailing him as the only person having the political maturity to lead Sri Lanka at this critical time.
Wickremesinghe, now at the tail end of his political life appears to have twin objectives at this time: to lengthen his current status as Executive President for as long as possible and to bring back to life the UNP from its presently moribund state.
With regard to the former, Wickremesinghe is clearly looking at a second term beyond 2024. That would, of course, clash with what he said just a few weeks ago, advocating for the abolition of the Executive Presidency. Since he has already adopted a strong stance on the 19th Amendment, what he is likely to propose now is a compromise, with some powers of the Presidency, pruned, so he could still remain in office beyond 2024.
The first step towards resurrecting the UNP is to form a parliamentary support base of his own. With all the powers now at his disposal and the ability to dole out cabinet portfolios and other positions of power and privilege, that is not difficult for a seasoned operator such as Wickremesinghe. This ‘project’ has already begun in earnest.
The President and his ‘agents’ are already in talks with selected MPs from all political parties, to try and rope them in for the so-called ‘all-party government’. To be fair, Wickremesinghe wants to govern with as much multi-party representation as possible in his Cabinet. That is because it will make his government’s task of negotiating with the likes of the International Monetary Fund and the European Union much easier.
Wickremesinghe’s agenda doesn’t end there, though. He is hopeful of bringing in enough members from all parties that would, come to the next general election, stay with him and bolster the UNP. The President is at a distinct advantage here: being one of the longest serving MPs in Parliament, he has personal friendships with many of them.
Earmarked for this are mostly MPs from the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). This is low-hanging fruit, ripe for the picking. Almost all these MPs were former UNPers who served under Wickremesinghe’s leadership when they were in that party. Many are disgruntled that they cannot cash in on Wickremesinghe’s bonanza. At least half a dozen of them are likely to join the new Cabinet, reports say. Once there, it will be tempting to remain with the UNP rather than return to the SJB. Among them, Harin Fernando is likely to be the first ‘recruit’ to the UNP.
The other camp identified as potential targets is those among the ruling SLPP. As we have heard, some are singing Wickremesinghe’s praises already. It is worthwhile remembering that some of them have links and roots with the UNP anyway, the likes of Johnston Fernando, Gamini Lokuge and even S.B. Dissanayake being examples. Two years on, they will face the choice of remaining with the presently hugely unpopular SLPP or joining the UNP and teaming up with Wickremesinghe for another election.
Ranil Wickremesinghe is not good at winning at the hearts and minds of people. Nor is he clever at winning elections. However, he plays best when he manipulates MPs and ministers. This is what he is gearing up for in 2024. For Ranil Wickremesinghe, the ‘aragalaya’ has only just begun.
