Will Ranil Wickremesinghe make the SLPP regret having elected him the President and thrown a lifeline to his party, the UNP? This is the question one asks oneself when one hears some UNP seniors boasting at media briefings that a large number of SLPP MPs are planning to join the UNP. Among those who make this claim is UNP General Secretary Palitha Range Bandara.
The SLPP has already suffered three splits, and the breakaway groups are led by Wimal Weerawansa, Dullas Alahapperuma and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa. They are expected to join forces to contest future elections, together with leftist parties and the SLFP. Another rift will debilitate the SLPP beyond repair.
It is believed that huge majorities are not possible under the Proportional Representation (PR) system, which is said to bring about weak governments. But the SLPP won 145 seats at the 2020 general election held under the PR system, and succeeded in winning over some SJB MPs to secure a two-thirds majority. It passed the 20th Amendment to the Constitution to strengthen President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s position. But less than two years on, it began to experience trouble with dissenters clashing with Basil Rajapaksa, who was seen as a domineering figure given to shortchanging the constituents of the ruling coalition. Thus, all internal problems of the SLPP boil down to disputes between Basil and his critics in the SLPP parliamentary group.
Curse of huge majorities
Perhaps, the SLPP would not have faced crippling internal disputes if it had not been able to secure a two-thirds majority, which made it cocky; a smaller majority would have made the SLPP leaders realize the need to maintain friendly ties with their allies and tread cautiously in making vital decisions.
The leaders of coalition governments with huge majorities become overconfident and try to railroad the constituents into doing their bidding. This is what happened to the SLFP-led United Front government (1970-77) with a two-thirds majority. Its leftist allies fell out, and the SLFP was reduced to eight seats at the 1977 general election.
The UNP, which won a five-sixths majority in 1977, did not suffer a similar fate because its leader J. R. Jayewardene obtained undated resignation letters from his MPs, who were therefore wary of rebelling against him for fear of losing their seats. The Mahinda Rajapaksa government, which managed to muster a two-thirds majority in 2010 became faction-ridden, a few years later, and in 2014, SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena himself defected, triggering mass crossovers. The powerful government crashed in January 2015.
In contrast, Mahinda Rajapaksa barely had a majority in the parliament when he became the President in 2005, but he strengthened his government with crossovers from the UNP and made a serious effort to retain the support of his parliamentary group; he was able to win the war against the LTTE, launch several development projects, secure a second term and steer the SLFP-led UPFA to victory at the 2010 general election. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Mahinda and Basil would have felt the need to do likewise after the SLPP’s victories in 2019 and 2020 if they had been without a steamroller majority in the parliament.
SLFP squanders opportunities
Trouble in the SLPP, or the Lotus Bud party, made the SLFP happy, initially. The UNP, popularly known as ‘Aliya’ (elephant) because of its symbol, was lying supine having suffered a crushing defeat in 2020. So, SLFP leader and former President Maithripala Sirisena apparently thought the SLPP’s loss would be his party’s gain. He became critical of the SLPP.
The SLFP would have attracted disgruntled SLPP MPs but for the unexpected turn of events on the political front after the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the subsequent election by the parliament of Wickremesinghe as his successor. SLFP leader Maithripala wooed the SLPP rebels, and had several rounds of talks with them much to the consternation of the SLPP leadership. It was thought that the SLFP was the best option for the SLPPers who had fallen out with their leaders. But then something unprecedented happened. President Rajapaksa resigned, and UNP leader Wickremesinghe, who had entered the parliament through the National List, became the President. His election gave the UNP a new lease of life. Now, out of the 14 members in the SLFP parliamentary group, about 11 have switched their allegiance to President Wickremesinghe, and accepted ministerial posts.
The SLFP could not capitalize on the SLPP MPs’ discontentbecause Sirisena failed to unify it. He took a leaf out of Wickremesinghe’s book in trying to consolidate his hold on the SLFP much to the consternation of the party seniors. He changed the party’s Constitution in a deplorable manner, and this has come to be viewed as a move aimed as furthering the interests of his son, Daham, who has been appointed an SLFP youth leader. Dissident SLFP MPs are publicly accusing Sirisena of trying to establish a political dynasty.
The SLFP is in the current dilemma because Sirisena failed to act like a mature leader and surrounded himself with a bunch of cronies, some of whom are newcomers. He has antagonized the party’s old guard, and is under attack by former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, who is on a campaign to oust him as the SLFP leader.
UNP’s chances of success
A political party does not become popular or strong enough to win elections simply because it produces an Executive President. There have been instances where parties led by Executive Presidents suffered electoral setbacks or even lost elections. The SLFP under President Kumaratunga lost the 2001 general election. In 2018, it was defeated at the local government polls under the stewardship of President Sirisena. In 1994, President D. B. Wijetunga led the UNP, which was defeated by the SLFP-led People’s Alliance at a general election after 17 years. It is believed that the UNP won elections in the late 1980s thanks to JVP violence and counterviolence, which enabled it to misuse state resources and resort to violence to rig elections with impunity. Thus, the fact that a political party is led by an Executive President is no guarantee that it will win elections.
The question is whether the numbers that a party musters in the parliament translate into popular support or votes at elections. The UNP is without a popular mandate and owes the election of its leader as the President to the SLPP, whose popularity is manifestly on the wane. So, the challenge before the UNP is to win over the public and improve its electoral performance. The SLPP MPs who have sided with it are not popular; they could prove to be political liabilities rather than assets at future elections, given their abysmal performance andvarious allegations against them. Young Sri Lankans calling for a system change are not likely to vote for such politicians ever again.
The UNP-led UNF government managed to retain a parliamentary majority after the SLFP’s pull out in October2018; it even defeated the SLPP’s efforts to dislodge it. It remained stable in the parliament, but failed to have at least a single candidate elected although it had obtained 106 MPs in the previous parliament. So, whether it will be able to turn itself around by winning over some SLPP MPs remains to be seen.
Politicians know which way the wind blows, and it is doubtful whether the SLPP MPs will throw in their lot with the UNP at a time when the SJB and the JVP are thought to bescoring heavily on the political front.
SLPP’s struggle
The biggest problem the SLPP is grappling with is not in preparing itself for elections. The Lotus party has ruined things for itself, and the chances of its victory at an election in the foreseeable future are bleak. In a desperate bid to shore up its image and vote base, it has embarked on a campaign to drum up support under the leadership of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
All SLPP politicians loyal to the Rajapaksa family are trying to ride on Mahinda’s coattails, again. They seem to think Mahinda is still capable of revitalizing the SLPP single-handed. But times have changed. In 2015, people gathered near Mahinda’s residence, urging him to remain in active politics despite his defeat at the presidential election, but seven years on, they surrounded his residence, asking him to step down as the Prime Minister. Nothing could be more demeaning for the SLPP than to be troubled by the prospect of losing some of its MPs to a political party which was left with only a single National List slot at the last general election.
The SLPP will be lucky if it can avoid a great fall like Humpty Dumpty when the next election comes about. Odds seem to be against it.
