Will India’s frozen ties with China see a thaw?

India and China will today (August 14) hold the 19th round of Corps Commander Talks at Chushul as part of ongoing efforts to resolve the standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. The talks come less than two weeks before Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to attend the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg on August 22-24, and ahead of the G-20 Summit in New Delhi on September 9-10, which the Chinese leader is expected to attend. Neither side has ruled out a bilateral meeting.

Progress has been slow on the LAC talks – hence the 19 rounds – and after disengagement at five friction points, progress has appeared to stall over coming to an acceptable arrangement in Demchok and Depsang. “The Indian stance has been consistent, i.e. restoration of status quo ante as on April 2020 and the focus would be on disengagement from Depsang and Demchok. The above entails the restoration of patrolling rights till the traditional patrolling points,” a defence source told The Hindu’s Dinakar Peri. Progress has been slow on the LAC talks – hence the 19 rounds – and after disengagement at five friction points, progress has appeared to stall over coming to an acceptable arrangement in Demchok and Depsang. “The Indian stance has been consistent, i.e. restoration of status quo ante as on April 2020 and the focus would be on disengagement from Depsang and Demchok. The above entails restoration of patrolling rights till the traditional patrolling points,” a defence source told The Hindu’s, Dinakar Peri.

Since the Corps Commander level talks began in 2020, the two sides have so far undertaken disengagement from five friction points – from Galwan after the violent clash in June 2020, from the North and South Banks of Pangong Tso in February 2021, from Patrolling Point (PP) 17 in the Gogra-Hot Springs area in August and PP15 in early November. On Depsang Plains and Demchok, there are fundamental disagreements as China has viewed them as legacy issues predating the 2020 standoff.

Speaking to journalists last week, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar blamed previous Indian governments for “neglecting” the LAC and said he had seen first-hand the extent of Chinese infrastructure development from the 2000s on its side of the LAC when he was India’s Ambassador to China (2009-2013). “The problem is that previous governments did not focus on building infrastructure because their thinking was that if they left border areas undeveloped, then it would not facilitate [Chinese troops] to cross over more easily,” he said. “But this was the wrong thinking, because those who wanted to come, came in any way.”

Even beyond the difficulties in the current and slow-moving disengagement process – which will have to be followed by measures to de-escalate and de-induct the more than 100,000 troops that remain deployed in forward areas – the current structural dynamics in India-China relations suggest that prospects of a significant thaw remain low.

Nyoma, located at an altitude of 13,700 feet and close to the south Bank of Pangong Tso, is very close to the LAC in Ladakh.

While both sides will continue to find ways to keep the peace on the LAC, they are also beefing up their positions. As part of the continuing infrastructure development along the LAC, India last week began work on the expansion of the Advanced Landing Ground (ALG) at Nyoma in eastern Ladakh, which will see the runway expand to beyond 9,000 feet, making it capable of handling fighter jets. “The ground-breaking ceremony was held early this week and it is expected to take two or three years for completion due to limited working seasons,” a defence source said. Nyoma is located at an altitude of about 13,700 feet and is close to the south Bank of Pangong Tso. The IAF also has airfields in Leh and Thoise and ALGs at Daulat Beg-Oldie (DBO) and Fukche. However, the Leh and Thoise airfields are located further inside and officials with knowledge of the area said the weather at Nyoma is more stable, enabling seamless operations.

While India has continued to maintain that normalcy in its currently frozen ties with China will not be possible until there is a restoration of peace on the borders, differences between the neighbours are also by no means limited to the LAC. A rather new and unexpected one surfaced last week with reports suggesting that in the lead-up to the G-20 Summit, China had objected to the use of the Sanskrit phrase Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam in G-20 documents. The Ministry of External Affairs said last week only the “English version” – “One Earth, One Family, One Future” — is used in summary documents and outcome statements following reports that China had objected to the use of “non-UN languages” like Sanskrit. “The working language of the G-20 is English,” said Ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi in response to a number of reports that pointed out that the language in the recent Energy Transition Ministers’ Meeting (ETMM) in Goa in July had omitted the Sanskrit phrase after Chinese interventions. Diplomatic sparring may be par for the course, but possibly yet another reflection of the current mood in ties.

Meanwhile, China has gone more than 10 months without having an envoy in Delhi – another first in recent years in relations. Even as both sides are set for possible likely high-level interactions in coming weeks, China has made no indications of appointing an Ambassador to India even after a record 10-month gap described by observers as “unusual”. Chinese envoy Sun Weidong took up a post in Beijing as Vice Foreign Minister in October 2022. Since then, Chinese President Xi Jinping has made a slew of new ambassadorial appointments, but no appointment has been made for India. The unusual delay in appointing an Ambassador, however, hasn’t been explained. Some observers have seen the delay as messaging to India and referring to its contention of ties being “abnormal”. Beijing could also be weighing its options in finding the right appointment, given the added significance of essentially appointing a new Vice Foreign Minister rank official given the prominence of the India posting for Chinese diplomats.