The resignation of Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) parliamentarian Thalatha Atukorale from Parliament is not the mere resignation of one MP, it deals a stinging blow to the presidential aspirations of SJB leader and candidate Sajith Premadasa.
Atukorale walks away from Parliament at a time when most observers and analysts believe the SJB and Premadasa are best placed to challenge the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) and its leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the presidential polls. As it stands now, President Ranil Wickremesinghe is expected to finish third with Namal Rajapaksa a distant fourth. However, the gap between Premadasa and Wickremesinghe appears to be narrowing. Atukorale’s resignation is evidence of this.
Days earlier, former Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne also said he would be supporting Wickremesinghe. Senaratne, a left-leaning politician at the beginning of his political career is known for his political pole-vaults. Though valued for his political sense, his departure came as no surprise and wasn’t a slap in the face for Premadasa in as much Atukorale’s resignation was.
Thalatha Atukorale’s brother Gamini Atukorale was Wickremesinghe’s Man Friday, being his deputy minister when Wickremesinghe was Minister of Youth Affairs and Employment under J.R. Jayewardene and being General Secretary of the United National Party (UNP) when Wickremesinghe was appointed its leader.
Despite these strong ties to Wickremesinghe, Thalatha Atukorale sided with Premadasa when Premadasa was in a leadership struggle with the Wickremesinghe over a decade ago, arguing that just as much as J.R. Jayewardene anointed Ranasinghe Premadasa as his successor, Wickremesinghe should endorse Sajith Premadasa.
When that did not happen and Sajith Premadasa finally walked out of the UNP just a few months before the 2020 general election, Thalatha Atukorale followed him. At the time, she was publicly critical of Wickremesinghe’s aloof, distant style and his reliance on a coterie of Colombo-centric advisors.
These are the reasons why Atukorale’s resignation will have a massive impact on the SJB. By no means is she a great fan of Wickremesinghe. Yet, having experienced and endured Premadasa’s leadership for four years, she has had enough and sees the writing on the wall, both for Premadasa and also for the SJB. So, she has decided to defect rather than stay and be defeated.
Atukorale’s resignation speech is worth listening to and, if he has any hopes of sustaining the SJB as a viable political entity, Premadasa should do so. In it, she blames Premadasa for becoming bedfellows with former Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) types of the calibre of G.L. Peiris, Dullas Alahapperuma and Nalaka Godahewa. They are in the sin bin because of their association with the much-maligned Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Any association with them can only cost the SJB valuable votes, she says.
Atukorale then heaps insult upon injury by calling Premadasa “immature”. He is a man in a hurry and should learn from the likes of J.R. Jayewardene who, after being in the first Cabinet of the country, waited for thirty years to gain power, she says.
Atukorale’s most telling remark is that, had the UNP been one party and not divided into two factions, victory would have been handed to them on a platter. Not being united now is to commit political suicide, she says. This is probably the most astute of Atukorale’s observations.
Atukorale should not be seen as a martyr in this political war just because she resigned and did not cross-over to Wickremesinghe’s camp for the presidential election. She may well do so in the coming weeks. By resigning, she is losing only a month as a MP because Parliament will be dissolved anyway after the presidential poll. She is also highly likely to contest under the UNP banner in the general election that will follow.
Nevertheless, that should not distract us from the argument that Atukorale is making: that the SJB is doomed. There are many contributing factors. Like Wickremesinghe, Premadasa has also surrounded himself with a few select persons, a ‘kitchen Cabinet’ whose advice he relies on, his public remarks smack of arrogance and one-upmanship, the party is tainted by the SLPP defectors, there is a sense among some MPs that they are getting ‘second class treatment’ and different people are pulling the party in different directions.
For all these reasons and because Premadasa lacks the charisma to rally the energies of diverse personalities into one cohesive political force, the wave of support for the SJB that existed at one time is slowly but surely dissipating, helped in no small measure by Wickremesinghe’s Machiavellian tactics.
Wickremesinghe will continue his strategy of isolating SJB MPs and inviting them over to his camp, one at a time. More defections are being engineered; whether they will see the light of day remains to be seen.
Wickremesinghe is not a very clever politician. Yet, he is not so naïve as to not realise that his tactics can only help Dissanayake and the JJB, just as Atukorale pointed out. The JJB is where it is in the popularity stakes today because the middle-class vote base that the UNP historically appealed to is now hopelessly divided between the SJB and the UNP. Regardless of this, Wickremesinghe is continuing his tactic of poaching MPs from the SJB camp.
It could be that Wickremesinghe has not forgiven Premadasa for splitting the UNP and is hellbent on wrecking the latter’s chances at the election, even if it means handing victory to the JJB. To give Wickremesinghe the benefit of the doubt, he could also be entertaining grandiose visions of winning himself.
What then is the likely scenario if Premadasa and the SJB do not win at the presidential poll? Wickremesinghe would then intensify the campaign to restore the UNP to its former glory and invite those from the SJB to return to their political ancestral home. If Wickremesinghe finishes second- or even if he comes a close third- there will be many SJB MPs who will take up that offer without batting an eyelid.
This then, is not just a presidential election for Sajith Premadasa. It is also a poll which decides his political survival. If he doesn’t win, Thalatha Atukorale will be proved correct.
