By P.K.Balachandran
Colombo, September 30: The post-Sheikh Hasina interim government in Bangladesh headed by Nobel Laureate Dr.Muhammad Yunus (84) has clearly won hearts in the West led by the United States. Yunus’ recent visit to the US to attend the UN General Assembly session is testimony to this.
But Bangladesh’s rapprochement with neighbouring India does not seem to be imminent despite a change of stance on both sides that gives hope of an understanding emerging from the welter of contentious issues eventually.
Yunus and US President Joe Biden not only met but displayed good chemistry, with Biden hugging Yunus like a dear friend. On the contrary, Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not meet at all! Again in contrast, Yunus met India’s bete noire, Pakistani PM Shebaz Sharif.
However, there was a meeting between the Bangladesh Foreign Advisor Touhid Hossain and Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. But neither side reported what exactly transpired. The official photograph released by the Indian External Affairs ministry showed Hossain smiling and Jaishankar looking grim and disapproving. There is, clearly, a question mark over the real state of bilateral relations post-Hasina.
India was understandably upset with the change of guard in Dhaka as it had a special relationship with Sheikh Hasina and her family over decades. Indo-Bangla bilateral relations had reached the pinnacle under Hasina’s 15-year rule. But the close association between the two was seen in a very unfavourable light in post-Hasina Bangladesh.
On its part, India was worried about anti-Indian outfits like the Jamaat-i-Islami, and other radical and pro-Pakistan outfits gaining control, either directly or indirectly through the Bangladesh National Party (BNP). The BNP has a history of antagonism towards India. Memories of BNP governments sheltering Indian separatists are fresh in Indian minds.
The role the Bangladesh army was also of concern as India had had a troubled relationship with it between 1975 and 1990 when army Generals disrupted Bangladesh or ruled it in turns to force the government to adopt anti-India policies.
The ultra-nationalist mass media in India, seeking high viewership, stoked the fires of suspicion and antagonism towards the new Bangladesh. On the other hand, the media in Bangladesh stressed Indo-Bangla differences over a variety of sensitive issues and kept up the chant that Hasina must be extradited from India, thus putting New Delhi in a tight political and diplomatic spot.
However, both the Yunus government and the Indian foreign policy Establishment treated the imbroglio over Hasina and other matters with exemplary restraint and caution. Even as it was silent on the issue of Hasina’s extradition, New Delhi did not rock the boat by setting her up against Yunus, as conspiracy mongers wanted.
In fact, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar expressed confidence that India’s relationship with Bangladesh will continue to be “positive and constructive”. Speaking at an event titled “India, Asia and the World” hosted by the Asia Society and the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York last Tuesday, Jaishankar decried the propaganda that India is trying to control every political aspect of its neighbours.
“That’s not how it works. It doesn’t work, not just for us, it doesn’t work for anybody else,” Jaishankar said. “At the end of the day,” he added: “each of our neighbours will have their own particular dynamics. It’s not our intention to suggest that their dynamics must necessarily adhere to what we might consider as being better for us. I think this is the real world.”
And further: “Everybody makes their choices and then countries adjust to each other and find ways of working it out. Every country will have its own dynamics. In foreign policy, you try to read, anticipate and then respond to it.”
Stressing the particularly close ties with Bangladesh, Jaishankar said: “What we have done over the last decade is projects of various kinds which have been good for both of us. Economic activity overall has picked up, and logistics of that region has improved.”
“ Something happens in the region every few years and people suggest that there is some kind of irretrievable situation out there, but you then see the correctives beginning to manifest themselves. I am confident that our relationship would continue to be positive and constructive.”
Rounding it off, Jaishankar said: “I’m very confident at the end of it all, in our neighbourhood, the realities of interdependence or mutual benefit and our ability to get along will serve both our interests. Those realities will assert themselves. That’s been the history.”
India-BNP Rapprochement
Reports from Dhaka say that India and the BNP are making tentative moves towards a rapprochement. The recent visit of the Indian High Commissioner to the BNP’s office is considered significant. BNP leaders assured the Indian envoy that the party will not allow Bangladesh to be used by Indian separatists, which is India’s principal concern.
Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, a member of the BNP’s Standing Committee, told Dhaka Tribune that “there is no reason for relations between India and the BNP to deteriorate.”
To sum up, the picture of Indo-Bangla relations is not exactly cheerful, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
US-Bangla
On the contrary US-Bangla relations appear to be strong and on the upswing. The United States had reasons to be the happiest with the change of guard in Dhaka given its tussles with Hasina over democracy, human rights and the anti-China Indo-Pacific architecture.
It is also generally believed that the US indirectly supported the anti-Hasina movement and that Yunus was the US candidate for the Chief Advisor’s post.
Yunus met the US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the side lines of the UNGA in New York. Blinken underscored US support and assistance but linked it to free and fair elections, observance of human and labour rights, media freedom and furtherance of an inclusive, and democratic Bangladesh without corruption.
Yunus met USAID Administrator Samantha Power who pledged US$ 199 million for resettlement of Rohingya refugees. The World Bank President Ajay Banga affirmed US$ 3.5 billion in loans for the energy sector. The Bangladesh media noted that Yunus received much attention from the elite US media, think tanks, and policy makers.
Yunus’ Reforms
While there is bonhomie abroad in the West particularly, Yunus faces significant challenges at home.
In his August 25 speech, Yunus had outlined an ambitious vision for a “new Bangladesh centred on unity, transparency, and democratic renewal.” On September 11, he laid out specific reforms for real change. Through his NGO Grameen Bank, Yunus had demonstrated how NGOs could drive powerful social and economic change where governments often struggled.
But Prof. Shafiqul Islam, of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University points out that running a government is an altogether different challenge. It requires navigating political complexities, balancing competing interests, and making painful compromises, he says.
Islam said that Interim government’s reform agenda is promising. But it must ensure that reforms are not a substitute for democratic processes or alienating key political actors.
“Yunus’ ability to lead will depend on his skill in coalition-building and maintaining legitimacy in the eyes of both political elites and the public. Members of the Interim Government need to be cautious about becoming entangled in the very political games they seek to transcend. They must strike a delicate balance between being innovative reformers and astute politicians, ensuring that the vision of a new Bangladesh can survive the political process without being compromised by it,” he cautioned.
Six Commissions
Yunus has set up six commissions for a structured and transparent process for addressing corruption, inefficiency, and structural flaws. The commissions are tasked with delivering results within three months, after which consultations with political parties, students, and civil society will take place.
But Shafiqul Islam points out that the critical issue is the lack of representation for ordinary citizens in these commissions.
“Despite the student-public-led uprising that ousted the previous regime, decision-making remains concentrated among the educated elites and privileged classes, with limited input from the broader public, Shafiqul Islam he observes.
“To avoid past regime failures, Yunus must include all relevant stakeholders. Nyay (ideal justice) and Niti (procedural justice) have to go together,” he urges.
END.
