By Vishvanath
The recently concluded presidential poll brought a protracted drought of elections to an end. The next parliamentary election is expected soon. The outcome of the presidential contest has left the public scratching their heads and asking why there was no massive swing for the winner.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who won the presidency, and his SJB counterpart, Sajith Premadasa, must be asking themselves why their performances fell below their expectations. The UNP has announced that its leader, former President Ranil Wickremesinghe will not contest future elections. Its Deputy Leader Ruwan Wijewardena made that announcement at a media briefing today (24) Wickremesinghe will not return to Parliament as a National List MP either, the UNP has said.
All political parties are now getting ready for a general election while conducting post mortems on the presidential election results and the performances of their candidates. Parliament is expected to be dissolved shortly. NPP MP Harini Amarasuriya was appointed Prime Minister today (24). President Dissanayake waited until the appointment of a new Cabinet consisting of four NPP members including himself before dissolving the parliament so that there will be no non-NPP MPs as ministers.
The JVP/NPP believed in its much-publicized claim that Dissanayake would score a landslide victory, obtaining at least seven million votes. But he received only about 5.6 million votes (42.31%), and for the first time in Sri Lanka, a count of preferential votes had to be taken. Premadasa, who expected to win hands down, had to settle for a little over 4.3 million votes (32.75%). President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who contested, with the entire state machinery at his disposal, could obtain only 2,299,767 votes (17.27%). He is the second incumbent President to have lost a presidential election, the first being Mahinda Rajapaksa, who lost to Maithripala Sirisena in the 2015 presidential election.
The JVP/NPP claimed to be riding a massive wave of popular support. If so, its candidate Dissanayake would have been able to secure the presidency by winning 50% plus one in the first round itself. The JVP/NPP managed to increase its votes from 3% to 42%, but fell far short of its target, which was seven million votes. Dissanayake would have been in trouble if there had not been a split in the anti-JVP/NPP vote; Premadasa and Wickremesinghe, between them, polled 6,662,802 votes or a little more than 50% of the total number of valid votes (13,319,616). This, however, does not mean that if Wickremesinghe had opted out of the presidential race all the votes he polled would have gone to Sajith, or if Sajith had not contested, all the votes cast for him would have ended in Wickremesinghe’s basket. But Dissanayake would have been in serious trouble if there had been no split in his rival camp.
The biggest loser is the SLPP, which obtained 6.9 million votes at the 2019 presidential election and about 6.8 million votes at the last parliamentary polls; it had to settle for 342,781 votes in last Saturday’s presidential contest.
The Rajapaksa family was planning to let business tycoon, Dhammika Perera, as their presidential candidate, contest the presidential election, but he was wise enough to pull out at the eleventh hour, and they were left with no alternative but to field Namal. It will be a long time before the Rajapaksas recover lost ground on the political front. However, the presidential election provided Namal with an opportunity to gain national prominence, and he exuded some maturity, unlike in the past, if the manner in which he conducted his election campaign was any indication.
There was a split in the TNA votes as well. Ariyanethiran Pakkiyaselvam’s entry into the presidential race cost Premadasa dear electorally. Pakkiyaselvam, described as the common Tamil presidential candidate received as many as 226,343 votes in the North and the East. Premadasa won in the North and the East, but the majority he received there was not big enough to offset Dissanayake’s lead in other parts of the country. This is not something the SJB bargained for. It may have thought that its victory was certain when the ITAK, the biggest constituent of the TNA pledged its support for Premadasa, a few weeks ago. In 2015, Maithripala Sirisena was able to win the presidency because of the huge majorities he received in the electorates in the North and the East thanks to the TNA.
The SLPP dissidents who switched their allegiance to Wickremesinghe must be having sleepless nights, worrying about their political future. The UNP has said it would contest the next parliamentary election under the Elephant symbol. This is a worrisome proposition for the SLPP defectors, whose voters are not well disposed to the UNP, as evident from the fact that they could not deliver promised block votes to Wickremesinghe last Saturday. It is very unlikely that the UNP will be able to recover lost ground by contesting under the Elephant symbol, which has lost its appeal to the public.
Wickremesinghe might be able to retain the party leadership if the UNP can obtain several seats in the next Parliament; it has only a single National List member at present.
The JVP/NPP will also have its work cut out to form a majority government after the next general election. Its supporters did not erupt in euphoria when the final result of last Saturday’s presidential election was announced on Sunday. It may not be able to enthuse the floating voters ahead of a general election the way it did before the presidential poll. It will be really lucky if it can better its performance in the upcoming parliamentary race. Its candidates to be fielded at the next general election will not be as attractive as Dissanayake to the public.
The SJB will have to overhaul its strategy if it is to perform better at the next general election. It failed to match the NPP’s presidential election campaign, which was sustained over a period of more than two years. It promoted only Premadasa and concentrated more on attacking Dissanayake than addressing the weaknesses of the JVP/NPP. Not all its key campaigners were clean politicians. It could have found a better team to carry out its vital election campaign. It will be really lucky if it can retain the same number of parliamentary seats at the upcoming general election.
Only the TNA may be able to contest the next parliamentary election with confidence. It is not without internal problems as evident from Pakkiyaselvam’s entry into the presidential race against its wishes, but it will be a different scenario at a general election, and the vast majority of Tamil votes in the country except in the central hills and other plantation areas are likely to swing for the TNA.
It will be interesting to see how political forces will realign; group dynamics of the parties will behave and their campaign strategies will change in the next few weeks. The UNP has declared its intention to invite the SJB to form an alliance to contest the upcoming general election, and the latter has refused to do so.
Nobody seems concerned about the ailing economy anymore! There’s the rub.
