Having been on the defensive in the face of propaganda onslaughts carried out by the Opposition from time to time, the government has apparently sought to launch a counterattack. It fired the first salvo from Anuradhapura on Wednesday (Feb. 09), and its rally was well-attended. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and several others made fiery speeches; they waxed eloquent on what they made out to be the government’s achievements and plans for a bright future. All of them basically said the same thing. The current setbacks were temporary; the country would achieve its development goals; the successful Covid vaccination drive had saved many lives, and the SLPP would emerge stronger and win future elections. Hope is said to spring eternal.
The government has put off the Local Government (LG) elections until March 2023, as it is unable to face them at this juncture, and there are some legal impediments, which will have to be cleared for the Provincial Council (PC) elections to be held. But the SLPP’s Anuradhapura rally and some utterances of its seniors in the parliament have fueled speculation that the government is planning to hold an election. Perhaps, it is giving the impression to the public that it is ready to face an election because the LG polls postponement has come to be widely viewed as its admission that it is too weak to face an election.
Rallies and popular support
Can political rallies save governments whose popularity ratings have plummeted? Are large crowds at political rallies and their rapturous applause a reliable indicator of popular support for the party that organizes them?
Crowds at political rallies could be deceptive. A government in power has the wherewithal and robust grassroots organizations to mobilize people in large numbers for its political events, as could be seen from the sheer number of buses, trucks and vans seen around the venues of rallies held by governments. Most participants in political events receive money in addition to food and liquor from the organizers of such events. The same is true of the Opposition parties as well, to some extent. The SJB also stands accused of transporting people to its rallies. Perhaps, only the leftist parties, especially the JVP, could be considered an exception; their members are self-motivated and take part in political rallies voluntarily.
It is thought that unlike the political events held by a ruling party, which throws around a lot of money, successful rallies conducted by the Opposition parties are indicative of the public mood. This argument holds water to a considerable extent because well-attended mass rallies precede regime changes. There are instances where the Opposition outperforms the ruling party in holding well-attended rallies. Such unusually huge protest rallies may help guess which way the political wind is blowing. The Joint Opposition’s ‘Mahinda Sulanga’ protest at Nugegoda in February 2015, the SLPP’s May Day rally at Galle Face in 2017 could be considered examples. The Joint Opposition and SLPP supporters were brought from other areas for those rallies, but overall, most people attended them of their own volition as a mark of protest against the yahapalana government.
Rallies and regime changes
Regime changes, however, are not necessarily preceded by the Opposition holding bigger political rallies than the party in power; successful shows of strength put on by governments in power do not indicate the robustness of the ruling party or coalition.
Prior to the 1977 general election, the SLFP held much bigger rallies than the UNP in most areas. The late Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike was the main attraction at those events, and tens of thousands of people gathered there to see her, but her SLFP was reduced to eight seats, and the UNP obtained a five-sixths majority in the parliament. However, it was the other way around in 1994, when Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga turned the tables on the 17-year UNP regime; rallies she attended attracted much bigger crowds than the ones held by the then UNP government, and it became evident that the writing was on the wall for the UNP. Kumaratunga’s People Alliance won the general and presidential elections held in that year, as expected.
In the run-up to the 2010 presidential election, the Democratic National Alliance (DNA), which fielded Gen. Sarath Fonseka, the war winning army commander, as the presidential candidate, pulled massive crowds because it was backed by the UNP, the JVP, the TNA and the SLMC. In some areas, the DNA outdid the ruling UPFA so much so that the then Opposition thought Fonseka would beat the incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa easily. On seeing seething crowds at the DNA’s Galle rally in 2010, Fonseka got carried away and went so far as to declare that he would throw the Rajapaksas behind bars first thing after becoming the President. His threat proved to be counterproductive in that his political rivals used it to gain public sympathy for the war-winning President in the fray.
Rajapaksa won the race with a huge majority, and unable to come to terms with what had befallen them, the Opposition and Fonseka refused to accept the outcome of the election, and launched a campaign against President Rajapaksa, claiming that he had stolen the election. They went around the country, calling Fonseka ‘the People’s President’, fought a legal battle unsuccessfully, and later their campaign fizzled out. Fonseka was arrested on some flimsy grounds and incarcerated before being given a presidential pardon a few years later.
A situation similar to that in 1977 happened ahead of the 2015 presidential election. President Rajapaksa, who was very popular, held a series of huge election rallies. A political magnet, he drew huge crowds wherever he went, and dwarfed his rival, and common candidate of the Opposition, Maithripala Sirisena. The UPFA under Rajapaksa’s leadership had won all the elections since 2015, and the Opposition was extremely weak. But Sirisena scored an upset win in the race, and the UPFA government collapsed, paving the way for the Yahapalana rule.
In 2019, it was the Opposition that put on bigger shows of strength in the run-up to the presidential election. The SLPP held the most attractive presidential election campaign, which was in fact the culmination of a series of successful protests it had held previously. The SJB could not match the SLPP’s organizing skills. Gotabaya Rajapaksa got a head start in the presidential race, and it was obvious from the beginning that he would beat SJB candidate Sajith Premadasa in the race, and his victory came as no surprise.
SLPP’s Anuradhapura show
The SLPP leaders are triumphantly boastful following their successful rally in Anuradhapura, last week. They seem to think they will be able to overcome challenges on the political front and recover lost ground with mass rallies.
The fact that none of the SLPP coalition partners were invited to the rally has given rise to speculation that the SLPP is planning to go it alone at future elections, and its message to its allies has been loud and clear. But such a move will only make the SLPP regret come the next election. Under the Proportional Representation system, every vote matters and hence the need for political parties to form coalitions.
Political rallies may help boost the sagging morale of the SLPP supporters and organizers, but they are no substitute for hard work and the fulfilment of the election pledges of the ruling coalition. People usually do not vote on the basis of what they hear from political platforms; instead, their decisions are based on ground reality, their expectations and perceptions.
At present, farmers are resentful that they have not received fertilizers; they have suffered yield losses, as a result. Most members of the Middle Class have been reduced to penury due to job losses and the closure of business owing to the pandemic. But the abysmal economic performance of the country is not solely due to the prevailing health emergency; the government has failed to manage the economy properly. It should not have embarked on its fertilizer experiment while the country was in the grip of an economic crisis; it should have known that a reduction in national agricultural output would adversely affect a large segment of the population and the national economy.
Corruption is another factor that has caused a sharp drop in the approval ratings of the present government. The public perception is that none of the instances of corruption have been properly investigated. Questionable deals such as the one between the government and the US-based New Fortress Energy over the Yugadanavi power plant, and the Trincomalee oil tank farm have tarnished the image of the SLPP. Gas explosions have also not been investigated properly, and it was a big mistake for President Rajapaksa to reinstate Chairman of Litro Gas Theshara Jayasinghe, who was sacked for the lapses on the part of the gas company. Essential commodities are in short supply, and people have to wait in queues to buy milk powder, cooking gas, etc. Inflation is soaring, and people are struggling to make ends meet. It is popularly thought that while the ordinary people are suffering, those in the higher echelons of government and their kith and kin are living in the lap of luxury.
Perceptions matter as much as reality when people make political decisions. One of the main reasons why the SLFP government fell in 1977 was that the UNP succeeded in convincing the public that the members of the Bandaranaike family were leading a life of luxury while they people were standing in queues to buy rice and bread. The UNP effectively used the famous ‘Family Tree’ cartoon to turn public opinion against the SLFP. The current Opposition is doing likewise, and social media is having a field day at the expense of the ruling Rajapaksa family.
So, given this situation, the SLPP will be extremely lucky if it could counter adverse propaganda and win over public sympathy by holding mass rallies like the recent one in Anuradhapura.
