France and Germany meet halfway on military aid to Ukraine

France’s aggressive opposition to Russia now balanced with Germany’s caution  

By P.K.Balachandran

Colombo, March 15: For some time now, French President Emmanuel Macron had been taking a very hard line against Putin’s Russia, even demanding that European nations send troops to ensure the survival of Ukraine against an unceasing Russian onslaught.

On March 14, Macron warned that if Putin won the war, he would not stop with Ukraine but proceed to threaten the rest of Europe. In February, he caused great controversy in Europe when he said he could not rule out the deployment of ground troops in Ukraine. France had already signed a security pact with Ukraine.

“If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero,” Macron said in a television interview. He warned of a repeat of the Munich appeasement of Nazi Germany prior to World War II.

Citing an existing Russian threat to France, the French government said that several of its services were being targeted by cyberattacks of “unprecedented intensity” by hackers called “Anonymous Sudan”  considered by cybersecurity experts as a pro-Russian group.  

With Donald Trump likely to come to power in the US, Europe faces the danger of having to face Russia’s onslaught against Ukraine without full US help. France is particularly aware of this eventuality and wants Europe to prepare to defend itself.

Franco-German Rift

Macron’s call for arms against Russia, however, startled his NATO allies as it threw up the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia, which they hoped to avoid. Many European leaders distanced themselves from Macron on this issue, though support came from Eastern European countries, whose fears about Russian expansionism had drawn them to Macron.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was particularly against such aggressive posturing as the German population was for a negotiated end to the Ukraine war given their experience during World War II when Germany’s military campaign against the Russians proved to be a monumental failure.

Germany has been for a US-led European defence, while France has entertained visions of a Europe-led defence. Germany had refused to send long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, though it is the second-largest arms supplier to Ukraine after the US. Interestingly, France is 14 th. in the order of suppliers.

Germany’s other grievance against Macron was that he makes sweeping declarations without consulting his European partners. Germany is also not happy with France’s bid to cultivate Central and East European countries, areas it feels lie in its sphere of influence. But France is only tapping into these countries’ fear of Russian expansionism.

Macron’s aggressive anti-Russian stance faced opposition on home ground too and interestingly both from the right and the left. The Guardian quoted Jordan Bardella, president of the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, as saying that Macron’s call was “irresponsible and extremely dangerous for peace in the world.” Fabien Roussel, secretary of the Communist Party, also described Macron’s call as “dangerous.” Marine Tondelier, leader of the Green party, said Macron displayed “amateurism.”

Berlin Agreement

To close the widening gap between France and Germany, a conference between Macron and Scholz was called in Berlin with the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, acting as a mediator. Tusk had just met US President Joe Biden and knew American thinking on European controversies.    

Offering an olive branch to Scholz’s fear of escalation, Macron said: “We will continue as we have done since the first day, never to take the initiative in any escalation.” And Scholz said: “We will procure even more weapons – on the entire world market.”

In addition, the production of military equipment should be expanded, including in Ukraine, Scholz added. He also promised to pursue a “coalition of capabilities” to purchase long-range rocket artillery, an idea first set out at a meeting in Paris in February.

European Union countries have agreed to provide US$ 5.48 billion for military aid to Ukraine. “The message is clear: we will support Ukraine with whatever it takes to prevail,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell posted on the social media platform X after the decision.

Beefing Up European Defence  

These declarations about beefing up European defence capability should be music to Macron’s ears. He has been a long-standing advocate of a more integrated European defence industry without abject dependence on the US.

Macron had pointed out Europe’s weakness vis-à-vis Russia. “When Russia fires 10 shells, we respond with one,” he said.

According to a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report in March, European countries had almost doubled their imports of major arms between 2014–18 and 2019–23.

But the single largest supplier had been the US, around 55% of arms imports by Europe came from the US in 2019–23, up from 35% in 2014–18.

Europe itself accounted for a third of global arms exports, including large volumes going outside the region, reflecting the continent’s strong military–industrial capacity.

France’s arms exports increased by 47% between 2014–18 and 2019–23 and for the first time it was the second biggest arms exporter, just ahead of Russia.

However, the largest share of France’s arms exports (42%) went to States in Asia and Oceania, and another 34% to Middle Eastern states. The largest single recipient of French arms exports was India, which accounted for nearly 30%.

“France is using the opportunity of strong global demand to boost its arms industry through exports,” SIPRI said. According to Le Monde France is proud of the success of its defence technological and industrial base (BITD) with 4,000 companies – including 450 considered strategic and 600 exporters.

But France has been losing ground in Europe and is also increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern countries for its sales, Le Monde pointed out. It is struggling to sell frigates and submarines in a highly competitive market. Its manufacturers have abandoned infantry equipment, the paper said.

France feels the need to improve its defence industries and expand its market and the European war theatre seems to offer an attractive prospect. A possible dilution of US involvement in the European conflict arena might enable France to fill the breach. This though lies at the root of Macron’s policy of taking strong steps to beef up Europe’s defences against Russia.

. 

Significantly, France’s Minister of Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecornu, has said that French manufacturers are being encouraged to produce new equipment quickly, both to reconstitute the stocks of the French Armed Forces without delay, and to meet the needs of European states anxious to raise their level of protection.

“It is a real war economy that is being put in place. We will accelerate this transformation,” Lecornu said in a recent report.

“The Member States of the European Union have proved that a sovereign and united Europe has the capacity to ensure its own security and to face global challenges, in complementarity with the role played by NATO. This further strengthens France’s determination to promote the European strategic autonomy, which relies in particular on a solid Defence Technological and Industrial Base.”

“This is the observation made at the Versailles summit by the heads of State and Government of the European Union. The return of war to Europe requires us to rapidly build the conditions for our own European Defence responses, particularly with regard to our industry. This is one of the challenges that we Europeans must take up if we are to keep pace with history,” Lecornu said.

Thus, France and Germany have met halfway on military aid to Ukraine and France’s aggressive opposition to Russia has now been balanced with Germany’s caution.

END

France and Germany meet halfway on military aid to Ukraine

France’s aggressive opposition to Russia now balanced with Germany’s caution  

By P.K.Balachandran

Colombo, March 15:

For some time now, French President Emmanuel Macron had been taking a very hard line against Putin’s Russia, even demanding that European nations send troops to ensure the survival of Ukraine against an unceasing Russian onslaught.

On March 14, Macron warned that if Putin won the war, he would not stop with Ukraine but proceed to threaten the rest of Europe. In February, he caused great controversy in Europe when he said he could not rule out the deployment of ground troops in Ukraine. France had already signed a security pact with Ukraine.

“If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero,” Macron said in a television interview. He warned of a repeat of the Munich appeasement of Nazi Germany prior to World War II.

Citing an existing Russian threat to France, the French government said that several of its services were being targeted by cyberattacks of “unprecedented intensity” by hackers called “Anonymous Sudan”  considered by cybersecurity experts as a pro-Russian group.  

With Donald Trump likely to come to power in the US, Europe faces the danger of having to face Russia’s onslaught against Ukraine without full US help. France is particularly aware of this eventuality and wants Europe to prepare to defend itself.

Franco-German Rift

Macron’s call for arms against Russia, however, startled his NATO allies as it threw up the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia, which they hoped to avoid. Many European leaders distanced themselves from Macron on this issue, though support came from Eastern European countries, whose fears about Russian expansionism had drawn them to Macron.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was particularly against such aggressive posturing as the German population was for a negotiated end to the Ukraine war given their experience during World War II when Germany’s military campaign against the Russians proved to be a monumental failure.

Germany has been for a US-led European defence, while France has entertained visions of a Europe-led defence. Germany had refused to send long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, though it is the second-largest arms supplier to Ukraine after the US. Interestingly, France is 14 th. in the order of suppliers.

Germany’s other grievance against Macron was that he makes sweeping declarations without consulting his European partners. Germany is also not happy with France’s bid to cultivate Central and East European countries, areas it feels lie in its sphere of influence. But France is only tapping into these countries’ fear of Russian expansionism.

Macron’s aggressive anti-Russian stance faced opposition on home ground too and interestingly both from the right and the left. The Guardian quoted Jordan Bardella, president of the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, as saying that Macron’s call was “irresponsible and extremely dangerous for peace in the world.” Fabien Roussel, secretary of the Communist Party, also described Macron’s call as “dangerous.” Marine Tondelier, leader of the Green party, said Macron displayed “amateurism.”

Berlin Agreement

To close the widening gap between France and Germany, a conference between Macron and Scholz was called in Berlin with the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, acting as a mediator. Tusk had just met US President Joe Biden and knew American thinking on European controversies.    

Offering an olive branch to Scholz’s fear of escalation, Macron said: “We will continue as we have done since the first day, never to take the initiative in any escalation.” And Scholz said: “We will procure even more weapons – on the entire world market.”

In addition, the production of military equipment should be expanded, including in Ukraine, Scholz added. He also promised to pursue a “coalition of capabilities” to purchase long-range rocket artillery, an idea first set out at a meeting in Paris in February.

European Union countries have agreed to provide US$ 5.48 billion for military aid to Ukraine. “The message is clear: we will support Ukraine with whatever it takes to prevail,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell posted on the social media platform X after the decision.

Beefing Up European Defence  

These declarations about beefing up European defence capability should be music to Macron’s ears. He has been a long-standing advocate of a more integrated European defence industry without abject dependence on the US.

Macron had pointed out Europe’s weakness vis-à-vis Russia. “When Russia fires 10 shells, we respond with one,” he said.

According to a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report in March, European countries had almost doubled their imports of major arms between 2014–18 and 2019–23.

But the single largest supplier had been the US, around 55% of arms imports by Europe came from the US in 2019–23, up from 35% in 2014–18.

Europe itself accounted for a third of global arms exports, including large volumes going outside the region, reflecting the continent’s strong military–industrial capacity.

France’s arms exports increased by 47% between 2014–18 and 2019–23 and for the first time it was the second biggest arms exporter, just ahead of Russia.

However, the largest share of France’s arms exports (42%) went to States in Asia and Oceania, and another 34% to Middle Eastern states. The largest single recipient of French arms exports was India, which accounted for nearly 30%.

“France is using the opportunity of strong global demand to boost its arms industry through exports,” SIPRI said. According to Le Monde France is proud of the success of its defence technological and industrial base (BITD) with 4,000 companies – including 450 considered strategic and 600 exporters.

But France has been losing ground in Europe and is also increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern countries for its sales, Le Monde pointed out. It is struggling to sell frigates and submarines in a highly competitive market. Its manufacturers have abandoned infantry equipment, the paper said.

France feels the need to improve its defence industries and expand its market and the European war theatre seems to offer an attractive prospect. A possible dilution of US involvement in the European conflict arena might enable France to fill the breach. This though lies at the root of Macron’s policy of taking strong steps to beef up Europe’s defences against Russia.

. 

Significantly, France’s Minister of Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecornu, has said that French manufacturers are being encouraged to produce new equipment quickly, both to reconstitute the stocks of the French Armed Forces without delay, and to meet the needs of European states anxious to raise their level of protection.

“It is a real war economy that is being put in place. We will accelerate this transformation,” Lecornu said in a recent report.

“The Member States of the European Union have proved that a sovereign and united Europe has the capacity to ensure its own security and to face global challenges, in complementarity with the role played by NATO. This further strengthens France’s determination to promote the European strategic autonomy, which relies in particular on a solid Defence Technological and Industrial Base.”

“This is the observation made at the Versailles summit by the heads of State and Government of the European Union. The return of war to Europe requires us to rapidly build the conditions for our own European Defence responses, particularly with regard to our industry. This is one of the challenges that we Europeans must take up if we are to keep pace with history,” Lecornu said.

Thus, France and Germany have met halfway on military aid to Ukraine and France’s aggressive opposition to Russia has now been balanced with Germany’s caution.

END