The ongoing political war between the UNP and the SJB has got down and dirty amid speculation that the much-delayed local government elections will be held in a few weeks. The UNP is all out to engineer some more crossovers from the SJB parliamentary group, having already caused several defections, and rewarded the defectors with ministerial posts.
Trouble however is far from over for the government. UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe received 134 votes at the mini-presidential election in the parliament, in July and became the President. Most of those who voted for him were SLPP MPs. But he and the SLPP could muster only 123 votes for Budget 2023, in the 225-member House, and this drop augurs ill for the government, which seems to have redoubled its efforts to win over some more Opposition MPs, as a result.
The SLFP has already lost about nine out of its 14 MPs (elected on the SLPP ticket) to the UNP-SLPP administration. The UNP is floating rumors of another split in the SJB, which has trained its propaganda cannon on the government in retaliation.
Bombshell
The SJB women’s wing has dropped a bombshell. On Friday, it summoned a media briefing and accused presidential advisor, Prof. Ashu Marasinghe, of bestiality. He has since resigned from his post, denied the allegation, and reported the matter to the CID. A video released by Hirunika Premachandra is going viral, causing considerable damage to the reputation of Prof. Marasinghe, who insists that it has been doctored.
What is playing out on the propaganda front may be considered a foretaste of what is to come ahead of the local government polls. The propaganda war between the UNP and the SJB is bound to intensify in the next few weeks.
Another year of upheavals?
When a ruling party/coalition becomes unpopular, it is usually the main Opposition party that stands to gain. But the SJB is facing stiff competition from the JVP and the SLPP dissidents. The JVP’s approval ratings have increased significantly during the past few months, according to some opinion polls.
There are three groups of SLPP dissidents. Those led by Wimal Weerawansa, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, Udaya Gammanpila and others have formed the Uttara Lanka Sabagaya (ULS) or the Supreme Lanka Coalition. The SLPP rebels under Dullas Alahapperuma’s leadership have founded the Freedom People’s Congress (FPC), and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa is leading the other rebel group, which is not yet organized as a political party. These dissident groups will have to join forces if they are serious about trying to match the strength of the SLPP, which cannot be written off as a spent force despite its unpopularity.
Speculation is rife in political circles that former President Maithripala Sirisena’s SLFP, Champika Ranawaka’s 43rd Brigade, the ULS, and FPC will coalesce to contest the upcoming local government elections. The Anura Yapa group is likely to throw in its lot with them. If such an alliance takes shape, as expected, it will be able to enlist the support of those who will leave the ruling coalition in protest against the alliance to be formed between the SLPP and the UNP. The Communist Party (CP) and the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) will not join a coalition with the UNP as a partner. They are likely to join the anti-government coalition to be formed.
The coming together of the SLPP rebels, the SLFP and others is a worrisome proposition for the SJB, which will have to vie with them besides the JVP at future elections. There will be a three-cornered fight in the Opposition, with the TNA and the SLMC dominating the North and the East.
Under the Proportional Representation System, a split in the anti-government vote could be somewhat advantageous to the SLPP-UNP alliance. This may be the reason why the UNP is spreading a rumor of a snap presidential election, which, however, will be a huge gamble for the UNP and Wickremesinghe, who even failed to get elected from the Colombo District at the last general election.
It is only natural that the SJB is trying to outperform other Oppositional forces, while taking on the SLPP-UNP administration, and has decided to step up anti-government protests. SJBP MP S. M. Marikkar has told the media recently that his party will launch a wave of public protests in 2023. This cannot be dismissed as mere rhetoric.
The SJB will have to go into overdrive to impress the public, and protests are the most effective way of doing so. Not to be outdone, the JPV has also planned a series of protests to be held next year.
Economic burden and public anger
The government has already announced a massive electricity tariff hike, which will take effect at the beginning of 2023; thepower prices are scheduled to be increased again towards mid-year. The costs of all goods and services are linked to power prices, and inflation is sure to soar further due to the electricity tariff increase on the cards.
The Cabinet is reportedly divided on the power price increase. The ministers cannot be unaware of its political falloutespecially ahead of an election. But the government has crossed the point of no return in fulfilling the IMF loan conditions, and will have to go ahead with the scheduled power price hike.
The Opposition is obviously planning to tap public anger aggravated by tax and tariff hikes, the increasing cost of living and various shortages, to fuel its anti-government campaigns, which will gain a tremendous boost from electricity price increase and power cuts, which are expected to be extended due to a shortage of coal.
Street protests will adversely impact the semblance of political stability which has come about, and make the country’s economic recovery even more difficult. But there is no way protests could be stopped in a democracy. The governmenthowever is not likely to take it lying down; it will go all out to crush protests, as it has done during the past several months. But crackdowns only strengthen the resolve of protesters, especially that of the supporters of radical parties like the JVP.
This situation could have been averted if the SLPP had not squandered an opportunity that presented itself a few months ago.
Missed opportunity
The best way to overcome problems on the political front, and stabilize the economy would have been to form an all-party interim government with a timeframe set for an early general election. Such a course of action would have helped defuse tensions and prevent political upheavals, which have taken their toll on the economic recovery process.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had apparently realized the need to do so and seemed amenable to the idea of an all-party government, but some powerful members of the SLPP had other plans; they did not want to lose their hold on power by sharing it with the main Opposition party, the SJB. Instead, they opted for an arrangement, which, they thought, would not pose a threat to their long-term interests. They brought in Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister and then had him elected President because the UNP was extremely weak and they knew he would be dependent on them for parliamentary support. Now, they have chosen to coalesce with the UNP to contest the upcoming local government elections!
The government finds itself in a spot. Force will not help it contain protests, and leniency will only encourage the Opposition to intensify agitations, as was the experience of Gotabaya. This will be the government’s dilemma in the new year, which is likely to witness a huge increase in street protests and countermeasures, with the propagandists of the warring sides taking their reputation busting campaigns to the next level.
