Sri Lanka must prepare for disruptions to Indian food supplies, Marambe warns

Sri Lanka must prepare for possible disruptions to food imports from India by strengthening domestic production and managing its water reserves carefully, Senior Professor in Crop Science at University of Peradeniya, Buddhi Marambe warned.

India would prioritise feeding its own population if adverse weather threatened production, leaving countries that depend on its exports exposed, he said.

“India has to protect its own food security before exporting to others. We cannot blame it for that. But we must also understand the implications for us,” Marambe said.

Speaking on the Pathikada programme, Marambe, of the Department of Crop Science at the University of Peradeniya’s Faculty of Agriculture, said Sri Lanka needed to assess its food security against developments across the region.

“Food security cannot be considered in isolation. We must look at the global and regional situation and understand what it means in practice for us.”

He said El Niño could affect Indian states differently, with areas such as Kerala receiving heavy rain while other regions faced a greater likelihood of dry conditions. Sri Lanka needed to consider how such conditions could affect supplies from its neighbour, including rice and onions.

Marambe recalled the difficulties surrounding India’s restrictions on non-basmati rice exports in 2023, during the previous El Niño episode. Those experiences should inform preparations for possible future disruptions, he said.

He explained that India had to balance export earnings against the availability of rice varieties widely consumed by its population. Basmati served a different market, including more affluent consumers and the hotel industry, and earned foreign exchange through exports.

However, exporting rice needed for domestic consumption could create shortages at home. Protecting that supply would therefore take priority, he said, adding that Indian onion exports had also faced restrictions in the past.

Marambe said Sri Lanka should develop its own response to potential disruptions rather than rush to purchase rice from India. Rice and onions were currently available, but the country needed to use forecasts to prepare for changing conditions.

“We must develop an appropriate response within our own country to cope with the potential disruption,” he said, adding that preparations were already under way.

A central part of that response was safeguarding local cultivation through careful water management. Marambe said the heavier rainfall expected during October and November should be collected and conserved to support farming beyond the current Maha season.

He warned that very dry conditions could develop from late January through February, March and April, potentially making it difficult to begin the next Yala season. He stopped short of describing the forecast as a drought.

“Agriculture does not end with one cultivation season,” he said.

Water used unnecessarily during Maha could leave less available in irrigation tanks when farmers needed to begin Yala cultivation. Authorities therefore had to consider the requirements of both seasons when planning releases, he said.

Marambe also stressed the need for coordination between institutions responsible for irrigation and hydropower, recalling earlier disputes over competing demands for water. Each institution had its own responsibilities, but decisions had to account for the wider consequences for food production and electricity supply.

Farmers should also study advice issued by the Agriculture and Meteorology Departments and prepare for the conditions forecast for their areas, he said.

“If we have not learnt from 2023, or do not understand the difficulties we encountered when trying to import from India then, we will be making a serious mistake.”