President Ranil Wickremesinghe finds himself in an unenviable position. He has had to perform what may be called politico-economic jugglery; he has to keep several balls in the air simultaneously without taking his eyes off the IMF bailout package for the show to go on. Just one fumble, and he will face the same fate as his immediate predecessor, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who had to resign due to public protests.
President Wickremesinghe’s task has become even more harder because he has to hold the Opposition at bay on the political front, grant some relief to the public, provide funds for vital sectors such as education, national security, health, social welfare, print money and control inflation at the same time, promote tourism amidst political upheavals, and, above all, ensure the availability of essential commodities, especially fuel and medicine. Needless to say, he has his work cut out. Nonetheless, he and the government seem to enjoy savoring power, and this is what Sri Lankans call ‘eating curd with a straight razor’.
There has been a mixed reaction to Budget 2023, the be-all and end-all of the government’s economic recovery strategy. It has passed muster with the IMF, and all others who advocate economic recovery at any cost, but what is economically right is not necessarily politically wise. The Opposition has taken exception to the budget, and this is something to be expected in Sri Lanka, where everything is viewed through political lenses. The main Opposition party, the SJB, insists that the budget has offered no relief to the public, but the JVP has called it an election budget! It may not be possible for the government to concentrate on public welfare to gain political mileage, given the parlous situation the economy is in, but the fact remains that the people are struggling to make ends meet and are crying out for relief. The hungry are angry and there is no way one could reason with them. It may be the realization of this fact that has made the government try every trick in the book to postpone the local government (LG) polls once again.
There is a semblance of political stability, which has stood the ongoing economic recovery efforts in good stead, much to the relief of the government, thanks to the electronic fuel rationing system, which has worked, and the fact that the state-owned Litro company has been able to ensure a reliable supply of cooking gas. So far so good! Heavy rains in the catchment areas of hydro-power generating reservoirs during the past few weeks have helped mitigate the power crisis to some extent, and power cuts have been brought down to a little over two hours a day. But the Ceylon Electricity Board Engineers have warned of a possible coal shortage, which, they think, will lead to unprecedented power cuts come April 2023 unless coal supplies are replenished fast. They say more than 35 coal shipments are needed, but only about four have been taken delivery of so far.
The national fuel pass with a QR code has also helped save a lot of dollars a month by cutting down on consumption and doing away with hoarding, which sent the country’s fuel bill through the roof a few months ago. But there is no guarantee that the government will be able to continue to maintain the fuel supplies at the current level. It needs dollars for that. A recent drop in the release of cooking gas to the market caused the public to panic but the situation was brought under control. This shows how dicey the supplies of essentials are.
It is the country’s unprecedented debt default that has enabled the government to allocate funds for vital sectors and essential imports. But loans will have to be paid even though hope is being expressed in some quarters that the government will be able to have its external debt restructured. Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal has said he is hopeful that the IMF standby credit facility will be available without undue delay, and the country can start building its foreign reserves again after securing it. Even if this target is achieved, problems will be far from over. Loan repayment cannot be postponed indefinitely. State Minister of Finance Shehan Semasinghe has told Reuters recently that it will take about four years for the country to be able to restore economic growth to the pre-crisis levels. This is the harsh economic reality which everyone will have to come to terms with, but the question is whether the people have the patience to wait that long, especially when politicians do not seem concerned about their suffering.
Perhaps, what hurts the public more than their economic woes is the fact that the ruling party politicians exude arrogance, and they and their kith and kin are seen to be enjoying high life regardless of the current economic crisis. Worse, they have resumed attacks on their political rivals, their attempt to disrupt the SLPP dissidents’ Uttara Sabhagaya convention at Hanguranketha, last Sunday, being a case in point. Pro-government goons stormed the venue of the gathering hours before the commencement of the convention and pulled down decorations and smashed up furniture on the stage. But that did not deter the organizers from going ahead with the event albeit with some delay.
The biggest challenge before the government is to ensure that shortages of essential goods will not occur, leading to queues. Towards the latter stages of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidency, there was no need for anyone to urge the people to take to the streets, for they were already there in their thousands, in the streets, waiting in long queues to obtain petrol, diesel, kerosene, cooking gas, milk powder, etc.
Gotabaya was considered a political toughie and nobody dared shout at him much less confront him during the first year or so of his presidency. The first instance of people booing him occurred while his motorcade was going past a long line of people near a milk food outlet in a suburb of Colombo. The problem with protests is that they tend to snowball. What began as an isolated incident led to more protests leading to the one near Gotabaya’s private residence at Mirihana, in March, and the Occupy Galle Face movement. The rest is history.
The government seems to be laboring under the delusion that it has been able to break the back of the political crisis, and the time has come for it to go on the offensive. It steamrollers Bill through the parliament with the help of a majority it has been able to muster through questionable means such as inducements to engineer crossovers. It has also threatened to crush public protests that are thought to be aimed at effecting a regime change. No less a person than President Wickremesinghe has warned in the parliament that he will not hesitate even to deploy the military and invoke Emergency Regulations for that purpose. The government politicians have begun to move about in super-luxury vehicles, which they stopped using during political upheavals. This and other forms of vulgar display of opulence only incense the public who are undergoing untold hardships.
The lure of curd seems to have blinded the government politicians to the danger that the straight razors pose, in a manner of speaking.
