By Kassapa
The much-hyped local government elections are over. As predicted, the ruling Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) emerged the single largest party in a vast majority of local councils. The collective opposition performed poorly as expected, but one wouldn’t realise that, listening to some of their stalwarts who are behaving as if they won the poll when in fact, they have been given another bashing by voters.
As for the JJB, although they secured the most number of seats in most of the councils, there are some important messages from voters. Their vote percentage has slipped from 61 per cent at the general election to 43 per cent, just over the 42 per cent polled by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the presidential election.
The JJB did surprisingly well at the general election in the North and East but this support has slipped with voters reverting to regional parties. An important factor is that this is a local election where there is a tendency among voters to opt for more locally based parties rather than a national political party. If the JJB is to retain the North and East at the next general election, it needs to revamp and strengthen its networks in those regions because they can no longer rely on a ‘protest’ vote at that election when they would have been in office for five years.
In other regions of the country too, the vote for the JJB has declined. Just in case opposition parties get too excited about this, the JJB is still the dominant party in the country. If not for the quirks in the system of seat allocation at local councils and if these results were extrapolated into a general election type seat allocation, the JJB would have swept the poll albeit falling short of a two-thirds majority.
Nevertheless, the JJB must also realise that the 61 per cent who voted for the party at the general election included those who voted for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) five years ago. That this percentage has fallen to 43 per cent- with corresponding increases in the votes of the SLPP and the SJB- means that some of those votes are slowly slipping back to their ‘original’ bases.
The JJB must ask itself, why? The party has indeed established a different political culture and has not yet been accused of corruption but has failed to deliver any landmark achievements, be it in ‘catching thieves’, ‘punishing criminals’ or in serious legislative and constitutional reforms. In addition, some of their representatives have been self-incriminating in their statements and have behaved with an arrogance that is not expected from the JJB.
The danger is that, if the JJB fails to deliver on the promises it so vociferously proclaimed from election platforms last year, their votes will continue to revert to the two major opposition parties, the SJB and the SLPP, and they could even risk defeat at the next national elections.
The SJB polled 17.6 per cent at the general election last year and 21.6 per cent at this week’s election, a four per cent increase. This could be considered as significant but the party must note that, if it is to sustain that momentum, the SJB must reform and reinvent itself instead of attempting to be the United National Party (UNP) in another name, with the same jaded politicians at its helm. None of that seems to be happening.
At the time of writing the SJB is busy trying to strategically gain control of those councils where the JJB does not have a simple majority, particularly in the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC). To do so, it would have to enlist the support of the SLPP in most instances. This is after SJB leader Sajith Premadasa shouted himself hoarse at public rallies saying that there would be no ‘deals’ with the ‘hora pohottuwa’ or the corrupt SLPP. Premadasa has always taken high moral ground in his political interactions- such as when he refused an offer from Gotabaya Rajapaksa to become Prime Minister. He will no longer be able to claim such credits if he resorts to political ‘deals’ with the SLPP. The question that will inevitably follow is how the SJB could offer a clean government in the future, when it is in cahoots with the SLPP in local councils.
The SLPP seems very happy that it has raised the percentage of its vote from 3.1 per cent at the general election to 9.1 per cent at this poll. It does reflect a significant increase but the total overall vote is less than a million and there is no guarantee that this would keep increasing. Namal Rajapaksa’s biggest handicap is his surname and his and his party’s future would largely be determined by outcomes of the many legal proceedings that he has to contend with.
The less said about the UNP, the better. Ranil Wickremesinghe sees his party’s performance as a progressive first step because it increased it vote from a miniscule 4.5 per cent to a negligible 4.7 per cent. He speaks of young leaders “in their 40s and 50s” needing to take charge of the party. At the same time he shows no signs of quitting the leadership or, at the very least, anointing a successor. With such obstinacy in the face of what is impending political oblivion, it is not a matter of if the UNP will die, it is only a matter of when it will happen- unless of course, it reunites with the SJB. That will not happen as long as Wickremesinghe and Premadasa lead their respective parties.
This then, is an election with no real winners. All major political parties have lessons to learn which, if they do, can shape their political futures. However, particularly for the opposition, ignoring the people’s verdict and behaving as if they have won the election will not get them anywhere. The message from voters to the JJB, SJB, SLPP and the UNP is that they all have room for improvement- and not to take their vote for granted
