By Abhijit Roy
It is a truism that China can do a lot to help its “iron brother” Pakistan in its war with India. Chinese aircraft and missiles have played a major role in meeting Indian air raids during the on-going Operation Sindoor. And experts add that China can give effective “non-kinetic” assistance to Pakistan in case of a more open two-front war.
Indian army chiefs have for long been talking about facing a “simultaneous, kinetic, two-front war” against Pakistan in the West and China in the East. They have also been deploying forces in the East in Ladakh, building roads and tunnels to move troops and munitions, in addition to massing troops on the Line of Control (LOC) in the West in Kashmir to face the traditional enemy, Pakistan.
But according to Pravin Sawhney, founder-editor of the Indian defence magazine FORCE China is unlikely to physically or kinetically intervene in an Indo-Pak war happening on India’s Western borders. Nevertheless, China has other very effective ways of coming to the aid of its “iron brother Pakistan”, without committing its ground troops or even aircraft for that matter.
China’s electronic and cyber warfare force, and its intelligence gathering satellites could provide valuable inputs to Pakistani defenders or deter the effectiveness of Indian weaponry, Sawhney says.
“China’s non-kinetic capabilities are enough to tilt the balance in a hot war between India and Pakistan in Islamabad’s favour. In the India-Pakistan war theatre, the PLA could provide Pakistan with round the clock battlefield watch,” he adds.
BeiDou Navigation Satellite System
Swahney mentions China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) which has significant military applications, including precise guidance for missiles, mobile target tracking, enabling independent command and control for military forces. It also allows China to potentially interfere with GPS and other systems to gain a tactical advantage.
BDS can guide missiles very close to their targets, with terminal seekers providing active guidance for precise targeting. BDS can be used to identify, track, and strike enemy ships, increasing tracking abilities significantly. BDS allows for precise knowledge of the location of one’s own forces and enables accurate targeting and navigation for military operations. BDS acts as a force multiplier, enhancing the effectiveness of the Chinese military in various scenarios. BDS can be used to interfere with GPS and other systems, potentially giving China a tactical and strategic advantage.
Huge Number of Satellites
Reuters quotes the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) to say that China now has 267 satellites – including 115 devoted to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and a further 81 that monitor military electronic and signals information. It is a network that dwarfs its regional rivals, including India, and is second only to the US. Both in terms of space and missile tracking capabilities, China is much better off now in terms of being able to monitor things as they happen, Reuters adds.
“Additionally, the Pakistan military, unlike the Indian military, would have a regular supply of Chinese ammunition, missiles, spares and critical assembles for salvo firing at intense rates,” Sawhney says.
“Given its huge cyber and non-kinetic anti space assets, China can, without being accountable, also bring civilian life to a standstill across India. China has ships in the region that are capable of cutting subsea internet cables that come into India. India does not have any ships for internet laying and repairs,” Sawhney points out.
Chinese J-10Cs vs French Rafale
According to CNN, the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan following the terror attack in Kashmir on April 22, could be offering China, and indeed the world at large, a first real glimpse into how advanced Chinese military technology performs against proven Western hardware.
After news came about how Chinese-made Pakistani J-10C jets had downed five Indian aircraft including a French-made Rafale on Wednesday, shares of China’s AVIC Chengdu Aircraft company rose 40%.
In the air battle in which a total of 125 fighter jets from India and Pakistan took part for over an hour, with neither side leaving its air space. The usage of Chinese-made J-10C jets by the Pakistan Air Force was confirmed by two US officials, Reuters reported. It added that Pakistan used the Chinese aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets, bringing down at least two.
“It is now being characterized as the most intense air-to-air combat engagement between two nuclear-armed nations,” said Salman Ali Bettani, an international relations scholar at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. “The engagement represented a milestone in the operational use of advanced Chinese-origin systems.”
India has not acknowledged any aircraft losses, and Pakistan has yet to provide evidence to support its claims, Reuters said.
But a French Defence Ministry source said at least one of India’s newest and most-advanced warplanes – a French-made Rafale fighter jet – was lost in the battle.
“If confirmed, it indicates that the weapon systems at Pakistan’s disposal are, at the minimum, contemporary or current, compared to what Western Europe (especially France) offers,” said Bilal Khan, founder of Toronto-based defence analysis firm Quwa Group Inc.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman would not comment, saying he was not familiar with the situation. But the Chinese could be closely monitoring the performance of their manufactures against Western products.
But despite the absence of official confirmation and hard proof, Chinese military enthusiasts have taken to social media to celebrate what they see as a triumph for Chinese-made weapon systems, CNN reported.
Shares of China’s state-owned AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, the maker of Pakistan’s J-10C fighter jets, closed 17% higher on the Shenzhen exchange on Wednesday, even before Pakistan’s foreign minister claimed the jets had been used to shoot down India’s planes. Shares in the company rose an additional 20% on Thursday.
China Top Supplier To Pakistan
Over the past five years, China has supplied 81% of Pakistan’s imported weapons, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Those exports include advanced fighter jets, missiles, radars and air-defence systems. Some Pakistan-made weapons have also been co-developed with Chinese firms or built with Chinese technology and expertise.
In addition, Chinese and Pakistani militaries have engaged in increasingly sophisticated joint air, sea and land exercises, including combat simulations and even crew-swapping drills, CNN says.
“This makes any engagement between India and Pakistan a de facto test environment for Chinese military exports,” CNN quoted Sajjan Gohel, international security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a think tank based in London as saying.
“Beijing’s long-standing support for Islamabad – through hardware, training, and now increasingly AI-enabled targeting – has quietly shifted the tactical balance,” pointed out Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the US-based Foundation for Defence of Democracies.
“This isn’t just a bilateral clash anymore; it’s a glimpse of how Chinese defence exports are reshaping regional deterrence,” Shingleton observed.
Speciality of J-10CE
The J-10CE is the latest version of China’s single-engine, multirole J-10 fighter, which entered service with the Chinese air force in the early 2000s.
The J-10C is classified as a 4.5-generation fighter – in the same tier as the Rafale but a rung below 5th-generation stealth jets, like China’s J-20 or the US F-35.
China delivered the first batch of the J-10CE – the export version – to Pakistan in 2022, CCTV reported at the time. It’s now the most advanced fighter jet in Pakistan’s arsenal, alongside the JF-17 Block III, a 4.5-generation lightweight fighter co-developed by Pakistan and China. the Chinese-made J-10CEs and JF-17 Block IIIs feature contemporary technologies such as active electronically scanned array (AESA).
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) also operates a larger fleet of American-built F-16s, one of which was used to shoot down a Soviet-designed MIG Indian fighter jet during a flare-up in Pulwama in Kashmir in 2019.
Senior Col. (ret) Zhou Bo, senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy in Beijing, told Reuters that if Chinese-made J-10Cs were indeed used to shoot down the French-made Rafales, it would be “a tremendous boost of confidence in Chinese weapon systems.”
PL-15 Missile Component
Experts in Pakistan and China told Reuters that the J-10Cs deployed by the Pakistan Air Force are likely to have been paired with the PL-15, China’s most advanced air-to-air missile – which has a reported beyond-visual-range of 200-300 km, though Pravin Sawhney says that the PAF version has a range of about 145 km.
India’s losses, if confirmed, could stem more from poor tactics and planning by the Indian Air Force than from the perceived advancements in Chinese weapons, CNN commented.
“If reports of India losing multiple jets holds up, it would raise serious questions about the IAF’s readiness, not just its platforms. The Rafales are modern, but warfighting is about integration, coordination, and survivability — not just headline acquisitions,” said Craig Singleton, the analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Credit to Indian Missiles
However, to the credit of the Indians, their missiles successfully hit multiple targets deep inside Pakistan – suggesting that their missiles penetrated Pakistani air defences, which are armed with Chinese surface-to-air missiles, including the long-range HQ-9B.
“If Chinese-origin radar or missile systems failed to detect or deter Indian strikes, that’s (also) bad optics for Beijing’s arms export credibility,” Gohel, the defense expert in London told CNN.
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