Will the ‘Pohottuwa’ wither away?

By Kassapa 

It was a fortnight full of seemingly surprising political developments, especially in the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Its likely presidential candidate changed, first from President Ranil Wickremesinghe to business magnate Dhammika Perera and then, at the eleventh hour, to the party’s heir apparent Namal Rajapaksa.

Such is the reputation of the SLPP, or the ‘Pohottuwa’ party as they are popularly known, that conspiracy theories abound. It has even been suggested that all these changes were part of a masterplan and that the younger Rajapaksa was always the chosen one. A closer reading of the events however suggests otherwise. It points towards a different, darker truth: the party is close to its demise.

There was many a discussion between Wickremesinghe and Basil Rajapaksa and even Mahinda Rajapaksa in preparing a plan where Wickremesinghe would be an independent candidate but with the SLPP’s blessings. These were cordial up until the point where some SLPP ministers- most notably Prasanna Ranatunga and Kanchana Wijesekera- took it upon themselves to proclaim Wickremesinghe as ‘their’ candidate, ignoring the party’s edict not to make such pronouncements.

This led to suspicions that Wickremesinghe was slowly but surely chipping away at the SLPP’s power base by luring its most competent politicians- and even a few who were not so competent. This is why Basil Rajapaksa asked for some assurances if the SLPP were to endorse Wickremesinghe. He didn’t want to be left with only the shell of the SLPP, most of its core having been consumed by Wickremesinghe. In response to these requests, Wickremesinghe was evasive and non-committal in his characteristic way.

Even then, the older Rajapaksas- particularly Mahinda and Chamal- were agreeable to play along with Wickremesinghe because they are aware of the stark reality on the ground: Wickremesinghe is expected to lose, even with the SLPP’s backing. However, young Namal was not. He kept sniping at Wickremesinghe in public remarks, saying that breaking up political parties was his pastime.

The SLPP Politburo meeting was then orchestrated, with the knowledge of the Rajapaksa elders beforehand, to deny Wickremesinghe an endorsement from the SLPP. Even if some in the Rajapaksa clan had reservations about this, they ultimately fell in line with Namal’s thinking which did stand to some reason.

The younger Rajapaksa’s argument was that, if Wickremesinghe is blessed with a SLPP endorsement and becomes President as a result of it, he will ensure that within the five years of his term of office, the SLPP will be reduced to an inconsequential political entity which is what the once glorious Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) has become today. Namal Rajapaksa felt it was a safer option to retreat now by parting ways with Wickremesinghe, offering a nominal candidate in the form of Dhammika Perera and still live politically to fight in five years’ time.

Thus, the stage was all set for this. Where the Rajapaksas miscalculated terribly was in underestimating the fallout from this decision. They expected their staunch supporters who saw Mahinda Rajapaksa as their lifetime political Messiah, to stick with them through these lean times.

That did not happen. Even ‘hardcore’ SLPP loyalists left the sinking ship, one at a time. There was S.M. Chandrasena in Anuradhapura for whose sake Mahinda Rajapaksa antagonised Berty Premalal Dissanayake and his son Duminda. There was also Pavithra Wanniarachchi who once fell at Rajapaksa’s feet and worshipped him publicly. Recently appointed as Treasurer of the SLPP, she offered the excuse that her constituents want her to support Wickremesinghe. Then there was Rohitha Abeygunawardena, recently appointed National Convenor of the party, who offered a pathetic explanation- that his elderly mother asked him to support Wickremesinghe.

These defections would have been hard for the Rajapaksa’s to digest. They come from the very core of the SLPP. The bottom-line is that each and every SLPP parliamentarian is now weighing his prospects and calculating whether they will be better off under Wickremesinghe or a Rajapaksa. For those who do not bear the latter surname, the answer is almost always the former.

The cruellest blow came at the eleventh hour, though. That was the withdrawal of Dhammika Perera. The Rajapaksas were hoping to offer Perera as a candidate and test its base vote knowing that he would never win. It would cost them nothing as Perera would bankroll his own campaign. Besides, it would save Namal Rajapaksa the ignominy of finishing fourth at the elections.

Perera was willing to play ball with this plan, only because he believed he had a realistic chance of winning, especially if he was supported by the heavyweights of the SLPP. When he saw them desert the sinking ‘pohottuwa’ ship one by one, he knew that he would spending his money on a lost cause. So, with the announcement of the SLPP candidate scheduled for Wednesday morning, he pulled out on Tuesday, thrusting Namal Rajapaksa into the candidacy.

In hindsight, Namal Rajapaksa’s plans to thwart Ranil Wickremesinghe have boomeranged on him now. He is forced to run a race that he didn’t really want to, with every possibility that he will be the last of the ‘major’ candidates, a tag that will haunt him in the future.

What is the impact of Rajapaksa’s candidacy? The public will be in for entertainment as SLPP heavyweights now have to get on political platforms and explain to the people why they should vote for Wickremesinghe instead of Rajapaksa!

That said, Wickremesinghe will not benefit either. The base vote of the SLPP which would have accrued to Wickremesinghe had the SLPP endorsed him, will now remain with Rajapaksa. In what promises to be an extremely close election, that could make a crucial difference.

It must be remembered that the ‘Pohottuwa’ was a political project of the Rajapaksas where this is no room for anyone else. In that sense, it is only correct that Namal Rajapaksa should be their candidate. It also means that, if the Rajapaksas are now a spent force in Sri Lankan politics, the ‘Pohottuwa’ can longer bloom, it must wither away.