Khaleda’s daughter-in-law Zubaida Rahman is likely to lead the Bangladesh Nationalist Party until son Tariq Rahman arrives to take charge
By Abhijit Roy
With Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia set to return to Dhaka on Tuesday after four months of medical treatment in London, there is palpable enthusiasm among BNP cadres and supporters about the party’s revival.
For nearly 15 years, the BNP was in the doghouse, forced into it by Sheikh Hasina’s repressive rule, leader Khaleda’s illness and her incarceration by Hasina on trumped up corruption charges.
Khaleda’s daughter-in-law Zubaida Rahman, who would be accompanying Khaleda, is likely to lead the BNP until her son Tariq Rahman arrives to take charge from exile in London. Dr Zubaida Rahman, wife of Tarique Rahman, would be returning to Bangladesh after 17 years in exile.
Sheikh Hasina had slapped corruption charges against Tariq forcing him to seek refuge in the UK in 2008.
The BNP ranks appear energised by Khaleda’s return. But party members across the country are more elated and emotional about Zubaida’s long-awaited homecoming. Her return has sparked fresh curiosity about whether she will now enter active politics. Political analysts say Zubaida’s return may ignite renewed interest in the national political landscape. If she engages in politics, it could bring a new dynamic to the BNP and Bangladesh’s politics. Even without direct involvement, her presence would carry symbolic weight for BNP politics, it is said. Zubaida’s father was a former navy chief Rear Admiral Mahbub Ali Khan.
However, party insiders told the media that Zubaida is expected to stay in Dhaka only for one or two months and she is unlikely to take part in political programmes during this period as she plans to spend time with her mother and mother-in-law.
Whether Zubaida will enter politics remains a personal or family decision. However, should she choose to, BNP supporters would welcome her. Public enthusiasm over the arrival of Khaleda and Zubaida would electrify the political atmosphere to force the Muhammad Yunus government to hold early elections.
There are no pending cases against Begum Khaleda Zia. Although Zubaida was convicted in a corruption case, the sentence has been stayed. In 2023, a Dhaka court sentenced her in an anti-corruption case. However, the ruling was stayed following political changes after the mass uprising on 5 August last year.
Challenges Before Tariq Rahman
Tariq Rahman, the Acting Chairman of the BNP, has been leading the BNP from London. Having recently been acquitted in major cases, including the August 21 grenade attack, he faces minimal legal hurdles to return.
Analysts reckon that he may test the political waters in Bangladesh under the Yunus administration, which is under pressure to deliver on its promised reforms and to hold elections. BNP wants an urgent election this year and has threatened to hold street protests if they are delayed. The BNP asserts that long-term reforms should be carried out under an elected government. However, the core question remains whether Rahman can provide leadership.
After the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, efforts were set afoot to reform the government and other institutions ensued including the formation of the Electoral Reform Commission. But democracy has always been highly flawed in Bangladesh. It has consistently ranked low in global democracy and freedom indices. In Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2024 report, Bangladesh was tagged as “partly free” garnering 40 out of a possible 100 points measuring political rights and civil liberties.
The report noted sustained harassment of the opposition and their perceived allies. Critical media and civil society were chained. Poor due process guarantees and human rights violations of the security forces were also observed.
The International IDEA in a report said the 12th general election was characterized by “toxic politics, an opposition boycott, crackdowns on dissent, repression, voting irregularities, and widespread violence” and that it “fell short of basic level of procedural and operational integrity, genuine political competition, inclusion, voter participation, safety, credibility, and legitimacy.”
Thus, electoral reforms, including key institutional reforms that would contribute to ensuring electoral integrity, are needed more than ever.
BNP’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Writing in Diplomat, Dr. Shafi Md Mostofa Associate professor of World Religions and Culture at the University of Dhaka, says that despite its historical popularity, the BNP has lost ground due to a combination of internal weaknesses, external pressures, and shifting public expectations.
The 2024 student-led revolution, rekindled hopes for democracy and political pluralism. Yet, the BNP finds itself at a crossroads. If the BNP is to reclaim its position as a leading political force, it must address these challenges head-on and adapt to the new realities of a post-revolution Bangladesh, Dr. Mostofa says.
“The BNP has long been one of Bangladesh’s most popular political parties, with a support base that has remained remarkably consistent over the years. According to recent surveys, the party enjoys the backing of approximately 42% of the electorate.”
“For the BNP, the present presents both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, the party’s historical support base positions it as a natural contender for leadership in a democratic Bangladesh. On the other hand, the party’s inability to capitalize on this support base in the post-revolution period has raised questions about its relevance and effectiveness,” Mostofa says.
Time Tariq Returned
One of the most significant challenges facing the BNP is the prolonged absence of its acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, from the country. Many had expected Rahman to return to Bangladesh following the revolution, but he has yet to do so.
Dr. Mostofa says that Rahman’s absence has created a leadership vacuum within the BNP, which has been skilfully exploited by its political rivals, particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Once a marginal force in Bangladeshi politics, JI has seen its support base grow dramatically, from under 10% to 32% according to recent surveys.
Explaining the Jamaat’s popularity Dr. Mostofa says, “This surge in popularity can be attributed, at least in part, to JI’s ability to position itself as a viable alternative to the BNP, particularly among conservative voters.”
“As the Acting chairman of the BNP, Rahman is the de facto leader of the party, and his failure to return to Bangladesh has left the BNP without a unifying figurehead. This has weakened the party’s organizational structure and undermined its ability to negotiate with the interim government on critical issues, such as the reformation of the state structure.”
BNP Not in Tune with New Realities
BNP is not in tune with the new realities, points out Dr.Mostofa. The BNP is plagued by extortionist tendencies.
“Over the years, numerous allegations of misconduct have been levelled against BNP members, tarnishing the party’s reputation and eroding public trust. While the BNP has taken steps to address this issue by expelling some of the accused members, the damage to its image has been significant.”
“While young activists of the revolution are demanding transparency, accountability, and a break from the politics of the past, the BNP’s failure to distance itself from power-hungry elites and embrace a more inclusive and dynamic leadership style has only reinforced the perception that the party is out of touch with the aspirations of the people.”
“The BNP’s conservative approach to the reform process has also become a liability in the post-revolution era. The BNP’s reluctance to endorse radical reforms has put the party at odds with the demands of the youth-led revolution. If the party is to remain relevant, it must find a way to reconcile its cautious approach with the revolutionary fervour of the youth,”” Dr.Mostofa says
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