by Vishvanath
On Dec., 20, 2024, this column highlighted a setback the ruling NPP had suffered in a cooperative society election in Moratuwa, one of the key electorates which delivered huge majorities to the NPP in the last general election. The government leaders may have chosen to make little of it, thinking that it did not signify a trend as such. But subsequent developments show that it may not be advisable for them to try to wish away the vicissitudes of electoral fortunes at the grassroots level.
Sri Lankans are given to voting in such a way that a political party that wins a national election (parliamentary or presidential) goes on to score comfortable wins in subsequent polls. This became evident from the NPP’s unprecedented victory in last November’s general election following its moderate win in the presidential election held two months before. Its presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake could not win 50% plus one vote to secure the presidency outright; he could poll only 42.31% of the total number of valid votes and became the President only after a preferential vote count, which was unprecedented in this country. But the NPP won a two-thirds majority with 159 seats in the general election by obtaining 6.86 million votes (61.5%). So, it was thought that the NPP would have the local government polls held immediately afterwards with a view to sweeping them as well. However, there has been a delay in conducting the mini polls, which are expected to be held in April. The government has said it needs time to amend the local government election laws to sort out some issues created by the indefinite postponement by the previous government of the mini polls in 2023.
Something the NPP did not bargain for has happened in the meantime. It won both presidential and general elections by consolidating its hold on the grassroots after many months of vigorous campaigning and trouncing all its political rivals. But the Opposition is beginning to show signs of recovery; it is winning cooperative society elections, which are political battles with the ruling party and the Opposition openly campaigning for the candidates in the fray. Given its stellar performance in the parliamentary election only about two months ago, the NPP was expected to win the cooperative society elections hands down, but it has been able to score notable wins only in some areas such as Bokundara (Piliyandala) and Mahara.
The trend of the Opposition gaining political traction at the grassroots level has continued into the new year. An independent group fielded jointly by several Opposition parties, namely, the SJB, the SLPP, the UNP and Dinesh Gunawardena’ MEP, beat the NPP in the Homagama Cooperative Society election on Jan, 12, 2025. The Independents won 32 divisions and the NPP only 17. They also secured 56 seats as opposed to the NPP’s 46 in the cooperative society. That was no mean achievement for the Opposition still reeling from two consecutive defeats in last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections. The winners have claimed that the NPP misused the government’s Clean Sri Lanka initiative to promote the NPP candidates, a charge the NPP has denied. But the fact remains that the ruling party leverages its hold on power in favor of its candidates in an electoral contest. That is the name of the game in Sri Lankan politics.
The NPP’s setback in Homagama came close on the heels of an independent group, backed by the Opposition, defeating it in the election to the cooperative society No. 9 in Angunukolapelessa, in the Hambantota District, which is a stronghold of the JVP, which leads the NPP. The Independent group had 143 members returned as opposed to the NPP’s 128 in that cooperative society.
The NPP’s defeat in the Homagama cooperative society election is of significance, given the huge majority with which it won in that polling division in the last general election (Nov. 14, 2024), the results of which were as follows:
NPP – 102,122 votes (75.04%)
SJB – 17,139 votes (12.59%)
SLPP – 5,541 votes (4.07%
UNP-led NDF – 4,127 Votes (3.03%)
Sarvajana Balaya (SB) – 3,534 votes (2.6%)
An independent group backed by the Opposition, especially the SJB, scored a win in the recent Kelaniya Cooperative Society election as well. It won in 62 divisions and had 99 of its members returned while the NPP could win only in 37 divisions with 62 members elected. The NPP’s setback in Kelaniya is also noteworthy in that it won more than 70% of the total number of votes there in last November’s general election.
The parliamentary election (2024) results in the Kelaniya polling division were as follows:
NPP – 43,080 votes (70.49%)
SJB – 8,307 votes (13.59%)
SLPP – 2,962 votes (4.85%)
UNP-led NDF – 1,790 votes (2.93%)
SB – 1,783 votes (2.92%)
Last month, the SJB beat the NPP in another crucial cooperative society election. It bagged the Moratuwa Cooperative Society by polling 51 votes as opposed to the NPP’s 49. The margin of victory was narrow, but the win was decisive in that it came less than one month after the NPP’s stunning performance in the last general election, which saw a Maroon wave sweeping across the country. More importantly, the NPP failed to clinch victory in a cooperative society located in a polling division, which it won in a general election a few weeks back by polling more than 56,500 votes; the SJB came a poor second with only 14,300 votes in that contest.
The results of the 2024 parliamentary election in the Moratuwa polling division were as follows:
NPP – 56,550 votes (68.44%)
SJB – 14,395 votes (17.42%)
NDF – 4,324 votes (5.28%)
SLPP – 2,707 votes (3.28%)
SB – 1,720 votes (2.08%)
The political mood swing of the public at the grassroots level ahead of the local government elections is not something the NPP can afford to ignore, for among those actively involved in the cooperative society elections are local government politicians, most of whom will contest the upcoming mini polls. The prospective Opposition local government candidates are using the co-operative society elections as a springboard.
The NPP will have to work really hard and shore up its support base, which shows signs of erosion, if it is to avoid unpleasant surprises in the local government election. A mid-term electoral setback in a local council election is something it cannot afford in view of numerous challenges and difficulties it is experiencing at the national level, where its popularity is apparently on the wane, mainly due to its failure to fulfil its main election promises, numerous policy U-turns and the enduring controversy over its MPs’ educational qualifications.
The Opposition parties have won the aforesaid cooperative society elections as an alliance, but it is highly unlikely that they will contest future elections together. But the results of the co-operative society elections portend trouble for the NPP, which will have to win the upcoming mini polls spectacularly if it is to consolidate its electoral gains secured in the general election and face the Provincial Council elections confidently later this year.
