Basil Rajapaksa is known to be a behind-the-scenes player, but he has taken centre stage of late, and even overshadowed former President Mahinda Rajapaksa for all practical purposes. Ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has cocooned himself and turned into a virtual recluse; he has been sighted only once in public since his return from self-exile. Former Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa is maintaining a very low profile, as usual, and no other member of the Rajapaksa family is in the public eye unlike in the past. Having declared, in a recent press interview, that his allegiance is only to his elder brother, Mahinda, Basil is now leading the SLPP’s battle from the front. He meets President Ranil Wickremesinghe and discusses issues of national importance as if to keep the latter reminded that the SLPP has a say in running the country. What’s up his sleeve?

Basil is a seasoned political strategist, who is both underrated and overrated at the same time, paradoxical as it may sound. From 2005 to 2019, he worked tirelessly to promote his brothers, Mahinda and Gotabaya, respectively and enable them to realize their presidential dreams. Why has he chosen to be in the thick of things as never before? Has he begun promoting himself, at last?

Basil is known for lateral thinking and keeps his cards very close to his chest. It is therefore well-nigh impossible to get inside his elusive mind. But there is reason to believe that he is planning to play a different role in politics and preparing the ground for it.

Not that Basil’s strategies always work. They have gone awry more than once. Basil is certainly not infallible—far from it. He has made mistakes, nay blunders, which have cost him and his family dear politically. He was in charge of President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s third presidential election campaign as well and had the entire state machinery at his disposal besides political clout, and undisclosed amounts of funds, but he failed to prevent Maithripala Sirisena from pulling off an upset victory. But the fact remains that he is blessed with a great deal of political acumen and a remarkable trait—fortitude. He is not tired of waiting until the time is opportune for action.

It was not certainly Basil who mobilized the masses after Mahinda’s humiliating defeat in the 2015 presidential race, and made the Rajapaksa family and its loyalists combat-ready, so to speak; he was in the US at the time, and the credit for initiating the process of enabling the Rajapaksa faction of the SLFP to turn the tables on the UNP and President Sirisena should go to those who are in the SLPP rebel groups. Prominent among them were Wimal Weerawansa, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, Kumar Welgama and Prasanna Ranatunga. Welgama joined the SJB and then formed a new party. But there is no gainsaying the fact that it was Basil who turned the anti-Yahapalana forces into a political party, the SLPP, in 2016, to translate popular supportfor them into votes. That task required a great deal of expertise, cunning, experience and a knack to bargain.

Does Basil think the time is opportune for him to pursue his personal political ambitions and dominate national politics the way Mahinda did? He is facing a constitutional barrier. The 21stAmendment to the Constitution prevents dual citizens from contesting popular elections. In 2015, the Yahapalanagovernment introduced a provision in the 19th Amendment to keep Basil at bay; it banned dual citizens from holding elected office. That effectively prevented Basil from entering the parliament in that year. But he succeeded in having the 19thAmendment replaced with the 20th Amendment, which did away with that provision, entering the parliament as a National List MP and then becoming the Finance Minister. He failed to deliver, had to give up his ministerial post and quit his parliamentary seat due to public protests.

But one can always relinquish one’s citizenship provided there are no legal barriers to such action. Gotabaya did so in 2019. He gave up his US citizenship, and ran for President successfully. Will Basil do likewise? This question was posed to him in a recent television interview. The following is an English translation of the relevant questions and answers:

Derana 360% programme host Sanka Amarajith: You can get rid of the Ugly American label easily. Your brother Gotabaya gave up his US citizenship. Geetha Kumarasinghe relinquished her Swiss citizenship. Why can’t you follow suit?

Basil: Not that I can’t do so.

Sanka: Why can’t you make even a minor sacrifice like thatfor the sake of the people?

Basil: I may do so if the need for such action arises.

Sanka: Will you relinquish your US citizenship or will you get MPs loyal to you to change the Constitution again to clear that obstacle in your path?

Basil: I will do what needs to be done at the right time.

What one gathers from the foregoing is that Basil has not ruled out the possibility of opting to relinquish his US citizenship for expediency, but he will tread cautiously, as he has learned from Gotabaya’s experience. Gotabaya has been left without both the presidency and his US citizenship. He was denied a visa to travel to the US while he was on the run after resigning as the President. Basil has referred to Gotabaya’s predicament in the above-mentioned interview in answer to a different question.

Basil’s declaration that he is willing to consider giving up his US citizenship to contest elections here will have an unsettling effect on his political opponents, who have sought to write him off due to the 21st Amendment. He will continue to be their bugbear.

The upcoming Local Government elections will be the moment of truth for the SLPP and the UNP or an alliance between the two parties said to be on the cards. If they succeed in proving polls predictions wrong, and perform better than their rivals either jointly or severally, Basil is likely to put the next phase of his plan into action. Otherwise, it will be a long wait for him. It was the 2018 local government polls that proved to be the undoing of the Yahapalana government with the UNP and the SLFP turning on each other.

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