The Chinese factor in Indo-Lanka relations

What exactly Chinese President Xi Jinping’s third term means for Sri Lanka is anybody’s guess.

President Xi Jinping was elected for a third term as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. He will continue for at least another five years as president.

On his way to becoming China’s most authoritarian leader after Mao Zedong, nobody could possibly challenge his political strategy, stature, and personality.

Former Chinese President Hu Jintao, who was seated in the front row next to President Xi Jinping during the much-talked-about Chinese Congress, had to leave his seat during the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing last Saturday.

In a surprise move, Hu Jintao was escorted out of Saturday’s event. Media outlets reported it as a dramatic moment that disrupted the highly choreographed event. The feeble and frail-looking former president (79) seemed reluctant to leave the front row of proceedings in the Great Hall, where he was sitting next to President Xi Jinping. A guide attempted to grab Hu by the arm but was shaken off. He then attempted to lift Hu with both hands from under his armpits. After an exchange of about a minute, during which Hu spoke briefly with Xi and Premier Li Keqiang, he was taken out of the hall.

International media reporting the incident said Xi, who was seated, held onto his papers as Hu tried to grab them. Hu patted Li’s shoulder as he left the proceedings, while most of his colleagues were looking firmly ahead.

Chinese state media said Hu was “not feeling well” when he was unexpectedly removed from the closing ceremony. The state-run news agency Xinhua said on Twitter that Xinhuanet reporter Liu Jiawen had learned that Hu Jintao insisted on attending the closing session despite taking time to recuperate. He was taken to a room next to the meeting venue for a rest when he wasn’t feeling well during the session. Now he is much healthier, Xinhua tweeted.

The week-long congress was held mostly behind closed doors, but Hu’s departure took place shortly after journalists were allowed in for the closing ceremony. Hu exited the hall just before the 2,300 delegates at the congress voted unanimously to endorse Xi’s “core” leadership position.

Meanwhile, Li, China’s number two official, was among four of the seven members of the nation’s all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee who would not be reappointed in a leadership shuffle on Sunday. Li and three others were missing from the ruling Communist Party’s reconstituted 205-member Central Committee that was approved at the closing session. The Congress sets the leadership and agenda for the next five years. Only Central Committee members can serve on the Standing Committee.

Xi is all but assured of being formally announced on Sunday as the party’s general secretary for another five years. This will enable him to become president for a third term.

Since taking over from Hu 10 years ago, Xi has become China’s most authoritarian leader since Mao Zedong.

Xi assumed a precedent-breaking third term. The impact of Xi’s continuing for a third term was deeply felt in the Indo-Pacific Ocean region, where Japan and Australia hurriedly signed a pact to face China. India might have been affected by Xi’s third term. When he was appointed for the first time, it was a handshake across the Himalayas. Eventually, however, the relationship took a dramatic turn for the worse.

Will he continue trade with India as in the past, or will there be a departure or deviation from the accepted path? Indian political analysts have already begun reflecting on the takeaways from Xi’s desirable third term. This is because Xi has packed the Standing Committee with his allies and promoted three generals, including one serving in the area bordering India.

Sri Lanka’s former President, Mahinda Rajapaksa, greeted Xi on his appointment. Xi assured Rajapaksa that he would work closely with the Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna (SLPP). Nevertheless, the SLPP is losing its grip on the masses and its popularity is diminishing by the day. It arguably led the country to an unprecedented economic catastrophe in contemporary history. What Sri Lanka will expect from Xi in these circumstances is a lenient policy towards restructuring our massive debt to China. This will enable Sri Lanka to secure an International Monetary Fund bailout package.

The Chinese Foreign Minister who visited Sri Lanka during the early part of the year said there is no provision in the Chinese system for debt restructuring. However, China could provide another loan to repay the debt.

More than anything, the Foreign Minister was keen to propose a dedicated forum for the well-being of the island nations in the Indian Ocean.

The visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Sri Lanka underlines China’s incessant drive to extend its influence over the Indian Ocean region. In Colombo, Wang spoke of creating a forum for Indian Ocean “island countries”. Though such a forum already exists, China is only a dialogue partner of the Indian Ocean Rim Association, along with Russia, the USA, and several European countries.

Since 2008, an Indian Ocean Navies Symposium has brought together 24 countries in the region, including many observers from China, despite it not being in the Indian Ocean. It is significant that Beijing, which has pumped so much money into many of these countries, but by virtue of its geography, is not a full member of any of the region’s groupings. China now believes there should be another regional forum. Wang’s proposal bears a close resemblance to the Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) doctrine of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In this context, it is likely that the Indo-China conflict could intensify and possibly worsen with the third term of President Xi Jinping, who may try to extend his influence over the region in keeping with the foreign ministers’ proposal during his visit to South Asia, including Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka has to analyse the current political scenario and weigh the compelling factors before taking any action. It has to engage in a balancing act between the two regional giants since Sri Lanka’s location is geographically significant for both of these powers.

However, Sri Lanka has the opportunity to negotiate with the Chinese to restructure the debt portfolio, enabling the country to obtain an IMF bailout package.

Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government must negotiate a revised debt portfolio with Xi Jinping. Especially after the Central Bank Governor announced that Sri Lanka’s creditors have agreed to back the restructuring programme. He was speaking at a recent forum held at the Centre for Policy Studies. Many problems will be solved if China takes a positive stance on the Sri Lankan issue.

Does President Xi Jinping, who was elected for a third term, approach Sri Lanka’s problems with dexterity and pragmatic thinking? Think tanks in China may examine ways for China to extend its goodwill to enhance bilateral relationships with countries in the Indian Ocean. This will enable it to increase its influence over them.

President Xi Jinping visited Sri Lanka on the 16th of September 2014 to lay the foundation stone for the Chinese-sponsored Port City Project when Mahinda Rajapaksa was at the helm of the country as President.

President Rajapaksa made a historic state visit to China in May 2013, during which both leaders agreed to elevate the bilateral relationship to a “Strategic Cooperation Partnership”. This was done by substantially expanding the mandate for engagement.

A number of bilateral agreements and MOUs were signed during President Xi’s visit to Sri Lanka, accompanied by the First Lady, Madam Peng Liyuan, and a high-level official delegation. This was the first visit by a Head of State to Sri Lanka in 28 years.

As the Rajapaksa regime was further strengthening its age-old ties with China, Sri Lanka allowed a Chinese submarine and a warship to dock at Colombo port from September 7th to September 14th, just before the arrival of President Xi. It was much to the chagrin of India to witness the warming of relations with China.

India expressed its serious concern over the matter to Sri Lanka’s Defence Secretary at the time, Gotabaya Rajapaksa. This was when he met Defence Minister Arun Jaitley and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. The meeting, which took place in New Delhi on October 20, 2014, was over the docking of a Chinese submarine “Great Wall No.329” in the Colombo harbour along with the support ship “Changxing Island” from September 7 to 14, 2014.

The two Chinese naval ships were docked at the Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT), in which China has invested $500 million. India may have been overly optimistic at that stage about the possibility of China using its commercial infrastructure assets in Sri Lanka for military purposes.

After the Defence Secretary’s visit, Sri Lanka Naval Chief Vice Admiral Jayantha Perera also visited New Delhi at the invitation of his Indian counterpart, Admiral RK Dhowan. This was apparently to discuss the same issue. In an interview with the media, Admiral Perara allayed India’s fears of a growing Chinese military presence in the island nation. He said, “We will never compromise the national security of India. India’s security is our security. “

But even after all this, yet another Chinese submarine, “Changzheng-2,” along with a PLA Navy (PLAN) escort warship, “Chang Xing Dao,” docked in Colombo on November 6, 2014.

This left a bitter taste in India’s security apparatus, which felt that Sri Lanka opted to ignore India’s security concerns over PLAN warships using Sri Lanka’s port facilities.

The Indian media has raised some doubts about the applicability of the 1987 India-Sri Lanka Agreement (ISLA) to the use of Sri Lanka port facilities by Chinese warships.

More recently, another Chinese research and survey ship, Yuan Wang 5, docked at the Hambantota Port, raising India’s concerns. Sri Lanka, considering its apprehensions requested Beijing to delay the port call. Sri Lanka, in these circumstances, should take extreme care to be in the good books of India to avoid harming the already strained Indo-Lanka relations.

Hence, any close relationship with China may raise concerns for India, which is constantly monitoring Sri Lanka’s moves. This is to determine whether it would be detrimental to India’s security.

In simple form, some politicians would call India our (Sri Lanka’s) brother or sister, while they would like to describe China as a distant cousin.

In any case, India is apprehensive about Chinese meddling in the Indian Ocean region, which India claims as its entity of political and military dominance.

However, now that Xi Jinping has emerged stronger than ever before, India may have to rethink its strategic partnership with the region’s countries.

As far as Sri Lanka is concerned, Sri Lanka has maintained a close relationship with China since mediaeval times. Historical records such as “The Biography of Bhikkhunis,” written in the sixth century, refer to the nuns who ventured out from Sri Lanka to China to inaugurate an order of nuns there.

In more recent times, Sri Lanka established diplomatic ties with China in 1957, and all SLFP-led governments cultivated close links with China. But before that, the Sri Lanka-China Rubber Rice Pact was signed to avoid an economic crisis which prevailed at the time owing to political upheavals. The Minister of Trade and Commerce, R.G. Senanayake, was the architect of the pact, which has been hailed as one of the most durable and successful agreements in history.

Nevertheless, in the present political scenario and given the geo-political concerns of India, it is difficult to fathom which way any shift in Sri Lanka’s approach to cultivating an affinity with China would lead..