by Vishvanath
The NPP leaders have become agitated as never before. They are on the offensive, berating their political opponents. They are also holding public rallies attended by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake himself and repeating their election promises. They have made an about-turn on power tariff revisions to gain political mileage.
The NPP leaders insisted, in the parliament, that it would not be possible to effect the promised 30% electricity price reduction within the next three years, but soon afterwards they allowed the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka to lower power tariff by an average of 20%. Addressing public meetings in the Kalutara District over the weekend, President Dissanayake assured the public employees that they would receive a pay hike from the forthcoming Budget.
Why has the NPP gone into overdrive to attack the Opposition, grant relief to the people and rally public support? Political analysts have pointed out that it is reeling from a string of defeats in the cooperative elections during the past several weeks. Independent groups, backed by the SJB, the UNP, the SLPP, etc., have bagged several key cooperative societies in areas such as Moratuwa, Angunakolapelessa, Homagama, and Kelaniya, where the NPP won handsomely in both presidential and general elections late last year. These setbacks at the grassroots level have apparently had an unsettling effect on the JVP-led NPP with only a few weeks to go before the next local government (LG) elections.
The NPP fared extremely well in the co-op elections while it was in the opposition. It is being claimed in some quarters that the government got the PUCSL to reduce power tariffs as part of a strategy to arrest the rapid decline in its approval rating, and a petroleum price reduction is also possible, given the government’s desperation to stop the erosion of its support base.
Leader of the Pivithru Hela Urumana Udaya Gammanpila told a media briefing on Monday (20) that the Yahapalana government had begun to lose control over the cooperative societies after being in power for three years, but the NPP was suffering losses in cooperative elections only just three weeks after winning a general election. He attributed the situation to the NPP’s failure to govern the country properly and make good on its election promises. This is the line of attack the Opposition has adopted to turn public opinion against the NPP government.
Another disconcerting proposition for the NPP is the prospect of the SJB and the UNP closing ranks to form an electoral alliance. It was a sharp split in the anti-NPP vote that enabled Dissanayake to win last year’s presidential election. The then President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who contested that election from the UNP-led New Democratic Front, stood accused of eating into SJB presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa’s votes, and helping Dissanayake in the process. The votes polled by Dissanayake, Premadasa in the presidential election were as follows:
Dissanayake 5,634,915 votes (42.31%)
Premadasa 4,363,035 votes (32.76%)
Wickremesinghe 2,299,767 votes (17.27%)
Thus, it is being argued that if Wickremesinghe had not entered the fray, Premadasa would have been able to win the presidency. The UNP failed to have any of its candidates elected in the general election that followed; Ravi Karunanayake grabbed a National List post much to the consternation of the UNP leadership. The SJB has also realized its limitations owing to a sharp drop in its votes and seats. It had 54 seats in the previous parliament and that number has fallen to 40. Hence its willingness to consider joining forces with the UNP to contest future elections.
Nothing could be more worrisome to a newly elected government than the prospect of suffering a midterm electoral setback, which will be considered the beginning of its end. A possible decrease in its votes in the upcoming LG elections is not something the NPP can afford. So, the NPP will go all out to win the LG polls and prevent a decline in its electoral strength. Unless the SJB and the UNP make a joint effort to rally popular support by winning back their erstwhile supporters who have switched their allegiance to the NPP, they will have their work cut to turn things around and shorten their stay in the political wilderness (read the Opposition). They seem to be contemplating something similar to what Wickremesinghe and Premadasa did in 2014 ahead of the Uva Provincial Council election during the Mahinda Rajapaksa government.
It was reconciliation between UNP leader Wickremesinghe and his deputy Premadasa in late 2014 that paved the way for the UNP’s return to power in 2015. They appeared on the same platform holding hands together with other UNP seniors, boosting the morale of their supporters in the run-up to the Uva PC election in September 2014. Their rapprochement helped weaken the SLFP-led UPFA, which managed to secure the Uva PC but could retain only 19 out of 25 seats it had in the previous council; the UNP obtained 13 seats (an increase of 6 seats), and the JVP 2 (an increase of one seat). The UPFA’s votes decreased from 418,906 (72%) in the 2009 Uva PC election to 349,906 (51%). Shashindra Rajapaksa was the UPFA chief ministerial candidate. That setback for the Rajapaksa family stood the UNP in good stead in the presidential election that followed in January 2015. The UNP was able to ensure the election of the common presidential candidate of the Opposition, Maithripala Sirisena, as President, who defeated the then incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
The results of the recent cooperative elections seem to have led the SJB and the UNP to consider forming a joint front against the NPP. They have not only agreed to work towards unification but also appointed two teams to initiate negotiations. The SJB team consists of party General Secretary Ranjith Maddumabandara, National Organizer Tissa Attanayake, Chairman Kabir Hashim, MP Ganayantha Karunathilake, MP Harshana Rajakaruna, MP Mujibur Rahuman. The UNP has appointed its General Secretary Thalatha Atukorale, Deputy Leader Ruwan Wijewardene and former presidential advisor H. S. Samaratunga to negotiate with the SJB. Their first meeting took place on Monday, and talks were limited to working out modalities.
The two sides are expected to expedite their negotiations with a view to forming an electoral alliance in time for the submission of nominations for the LG elections slated for early April. There is no way the government can pretend that it does not see the SJB and the UNP on its rearview mirror.
