Hardly anything goes as planned in politics, which is full of uncertainties. Trouble is reportedly brewing in the government earlier than expected, with the SLPP and the UNP being engaged in a cold war of sorts. The SLPP is trying to regain political traction and prepare itself for the next election while the UNP is making the most of the appointment of its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as the President to recover lost ground. While this tug of war is on, a story is being floated that the SLPP is planning to bring former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to Parliament as a National List MP and subsequently make him the Prime Minister. SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam has, in a recent television interview, answered some questions about this rumor.
The rumor of a possible Gotabaya comeback cannot be dismissed as a mere figment of the imagination of a social media activist, who seeks clicks, which can be monetized. It could be aimed at unsettling the SLPP’s rivals, and keeping the UNP in check politically.
Diminishing threat level and govt.’s unity
Adversity is said to make strange bedfellows, and this may explain the unexpected coming together of the SLPP and the UNP amidst popular uprisings against the government. But their relations tend to weaken, if not turn sour, when threats that prompt them to close ranks diminish. Now that the government under President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s leadership has been able to beat back Aragalaya, and bring about a semblance of political stability, differences between the SLPP and the UNP are said to be surfacing.
The SLPP, which took cover behind President Wickremesinghe at the height of anti-government protests that led to the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in mid-July, is now consolidating its power and leveraging its parliamentary majority for that purpose. Two issues have made the SLPP and the UNP manifest what may be considered unmistakable signs of distrust.
The SLPP is at the mercy of President Wickremesinghe where his power to dissolve the parliament is concerned. He can terminate the term of the current Parliament at a time of his choosing after March 2023, as things stand, if the SLPP tries to undermine him. He is at the same time dependent on the SLPP’s parliamentary majority to function as the Executive. The draft 22nd Amendment Bill has also sought to retain that provision, and the SLPP wants it altered to prevent the President from dissolving the parliament until it has completed four and a half years of its terms, as was the case under the 19th Amendment.
Secondly, the SLPP MPs who held ministerial posts in the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government are demanding that they be accommodated in the Cabinet or given other ministerial posts. Power is like narcotics; it is habit-forming. The SLPP is reported to have sent a list of names to the President, asking him to appoint them ministers, and he is not in a position to turn it down. He will lose parliamentary support if he antagonizes the SLPP, and this is a worrisome proposition for the President with only a single MP (Vajira Abeywardena) in the House.
SLPP becoming assertive
SLFP leader and former President Maithripala Sirisena has gone on record as telling the media that the government is planning to expand the Cabinet to accommodate as many as 30 members and appoint 40 deputy and state ministers to pacify the warring SLPP politicians. The 22nd Amendment Bill presented to the parliament for a second time has been changed to include provision for doing away with restriction on the number of ministers in case of the formation of a unity government. Thus, even if the 22nd Amendment becomes law, the government will be able to appoint a 30-member mega Cabinet and award 40 other ministerial posts to the SLPP MPs.
At this rate, President Wickremesinghe is bound to face the same problem as President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and President Sirisena from 2001 to 2004, and from 2015 to 2019, respectively. Both Kumaratunga and Sirisena had to work with hostile governments led by the UNP. UNP leader Wickremesinghe might have to contend with a not-so-cooperative SLPP, which may even turn abrasive in time to come, unless he does its bidding.
President Wickremesinghe has undertaken to make a difference in politics in response to Aragalaya, and he will have to live up to the people’s expectations, which are extremely high. While going flat out to revive the economy, eliminate the shortage of essentials, and grant relief to the public, he will have to give the present political culture a radical shake-up if he is to win over the country’s youth, who are fed up with all political parties and resentful. Politically active, and aggressive, they are a force to be reckoned with. But the President may not be able to get out of the political rut if he has to do as the SLPP says. People want a smaller Cabinet and the cost of maintaining it reduced to a bare minimum. If the President happens to pander to the whims and fancies of the SLPP, as is likely to be the case, he will incur the ire of the youth as well as others who desire a radical departure from existing political culture.
SLPP on rumored Gotabaya comeback
The story about Gotabaya’s alleged plan to make a political comeback has become a hot social media topic. Nothing is so certain as the unexpected in Sri Lankan politics, and the people tend to believe in virtually anything. At the beginning of this year, it was rumored that a national government would be formed with UNP leader Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister. Nobody would have expected such a thing, at the time, when the SLPP government looked stable despite the economic downturn, but a few months later what was dismissed as pure speculation came to pass, and Wickremesinghe went a step further and became the President.
There are no legal barriers for Gotabaya to enter the Parliament either by contesting a general election or through the National List. Any MP can become the Prime Minister, if he or she commands the support of the majority of MPs, and the PM becomes the President, if the incumbent President ceases to hold office.
But has Gotabaya indicated a desire to enter the parliament? In answer to a question from Hiru TV about this rumor, SLPP General Secretary Kariyawasam said, over the weekend, that Gotabaya had not given even the slightest indication that he was planning a return to politics, and therefore the story in question was without any basis.
It is doubtful whether the public buys into what the likes of Kariyawasam say, for politicians cannot be expected to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Being a lawyer, Kariyawasam was obviously on his guard, and used words carefully and economically; he did not go so far as to rule out the possibility of Gotabaya being brought to Parliament as a National List MP. He only said Gotabaya had not intimated to the SLPP anything about his anticipated comeback.
However, Kariyawasam came out with something interesting. He said the SLPP was in total control of the situation; its parliamentary majority had produced the President and the Prime Minister. He said he was confident that the SLPP would perform extremely well at future elections. His line of reasoning seems to be that the SLPP has succeeded in retaining its hold on power due to Aragalaya and, therefore, it should get the lion’s share of ministerial posts.
There is no conclusive proof that Gotabaya is planning a comeback, but one thing is clear from Kariyawasam’s answers and his attitude. The SLPP is doing its darnedest to consolidate its power on the political front, and keep the President and the Prime Minister reminded of the fact that they are where they are because of its parliamentary majority.
