Issues cropping up on the political front seem to be overshadowing the economic crisis, albeit temporarily. There seems to be no end to trouble for the SLPP, which has been struggling to retain its hold on power and prevent the disintegration of its parliamentary group as well as its vote bank amidst the country’s worst-ever economic crisis, and the resultant socio-political upheavals.
About a year or so ago, nobody would have, in his or her wildest dreams, imagined that the SLPP, which almost swept the board at the local government polls in 2018, secured the presidency quite comfortably in 2019 and obtained a two-thirds majority in the parliament in 2020, would find itself in a predicament of this nature so soon. It exemplifies the fate that awaits a government which throws caution to the wind, disregards public opinion and does as it pleases.
The SLPP has suffered another setback, a massive one at that; its Chairman Prof. G. L. Peiris and 12 other MPs crossed the floor of the House to the Opposition side on Wednesday (31). Known as the Dallus (Alahapperuma) group, they had fallen out with the SLPP leadership, which shortchanged them, and were expected to break ranks, but their defection could not have come at a worse time for the government, which has so many other problems to contend with.
The latest breakaway from the SLPP occurred amidst speculation that the SJB would suffer another split with some of its MPs joining the government to accept ministerial posts. Political observers have predicted that the government will be able to lure several more SJB MPs into joining the Cabinet, which is to be expanded soon to accommodate crossovers. Opposition and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa, however, says there will be more crossovers from the government and not the other way around. Hope is said to spring eternal in the human breast.
The dramatic turn of events in the parliament on Wednesday was not unprecedented, but such mass defections are rare, and presage trouble for the governments concerned. In 2001, the Chandrika Kumaratunga government collapsed following the defection of more than a dozen MPs led by SLFP General Secretary S. B. Dissanayake to the UNP. Prof. Peiris was also among those defectors. Something similar occurred in late 2014, when the Mahinda Rajapaksa government suffered a string of defections including that of SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena, who came from behind to beat President Rajapaksa in the presidential race in January 2015. We witnessed such defections again in 2020 with a large number of UNP MPs defecting to the SJB. About 39 SLPP MPs chose to sit in the Opposition in April this year, causing the government to lose its two-thirds majority.
The Dallus group is expected to form a new political party to contest future elections. It has already done the groundwork. It has held several rounds of talks with the Election Commission and is planning to win over the SLPP supporters who have become disillusioned. It however will have to vie with other SLPP dissidents and the SLFP for those votes, which number several millions. The SLFP is now facing a new challenge. It presented itself as an alternative to the SLPP in the hope that it would be able to enlist the backing of disgruntled SLPP supporters, but it now has formidable contenders in the form of the SLPP breakaway groups!
The SLPP dissidents who broke ranks with the government previously have welcomed the exit of the Dallus group from SLPP, and shown a willingness to work together with it. They are led by former Ministers Wimal Weerawansa, Vasudeva Nanayakkara and Udaya Gammanpila among others. The Communist Party, the Sri Lanka Sama Samaja Party and about nine other political parties and groupings have already made common cause with them. The SLFP is also planning to form an alliance with the leftist parties. Its leader and former President Maithripala Sirisena has made an announcement to that effect. The SLFP has also been working with the SLPP dissidents, and there is the likelihood of the Dallus Group, other SLPP rebel MPs, the leftist parties, etc., coalescing to contest the next election. Their chances of winning will be greater if they contest together. This is a worrisome proposition for the SLPP in trouble of its own making.
Meanwhile, not to be outdone, the SLPP has launched a campaign to reorganize itself, and held meetings with its organizers in 15 districts so far with the participation of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and SLPP National Organizer Basil Rajapaksa, whose is also the party’s chief strategist. It has sought to put on a brave face; its leaders have claimed that all district organizers have reaffirmed their allegiance to the party, but worry could be seen written all over their faces when they were shown television recently. By reorganizing the SLPP, they have tried to give the impression to the public that they are preparing for an election, but they obviously are not ready for any electoral contest at this juncture because their approval ratings have plummeted. They were wary of facing an election long before the manifestation of the economic crisis in the present form. That is why they postponed the local government elections; they knew they were facing the prospect of a midterm electoral setback. The SLPP has however been losing co-operative society elections, whose outcomes are thought to reflect the levels of support for political parties at the grassroots level.
The odds are that the SLPP will not be able to recover any time soon, but it certainly cannot be written off. It has shown remarkable resilience amidst serious trouble, and managed to cling on to power although one may not approve of its modus operandi. It is sure to make counter moves in a bid to turn the tables on its rivals, who have apparently left it for dead. It will go flat out to prevent the other disgruntled government MPs from breaking ranks by enabling them to realize their ministerial dreams. There is hardly anything politicians hesitate to do to secure ministerial posts. Whoever would have thought SJB MPs Harin Fernando and Manusha Nanayakkara would ever join the SLPP Cabinet and praise their former leader Wickremesinghe, whom they used to lambaste at every turn for ruining the UNP. Whenever a government suffers a breakaway, it invariably expands the Cabinet to lure defectors back and to prevent others from decamping. This, we have seen since the early 1990s, when the then President Ranasinghe Premadasa survived a bid to impeach him, and had to prevent the UNP from disintegrating; he created a large number of ministerial posts for those who, he thought, would switch their allegiance to the UNP rebel group, which went on to found the Democratic United National Front, which became a success and revitalized the Opposition, which was in disarray.
There cannot be anything more frightening for the ruling SLPP than the prospect of losing power. It will therefore leave no stone unturned in its efforts to cling on to power regardless of the methods used for that purpose. How it seeks to achieve that end will be seen in the coming days.
