All political parties are girding up their loins for the local government (LG) polls, which are expected to be held soon. In what is described as a surprising move, President Ranil Wickremesinghe has declared that he will remain neutral at the elections. Giving reasons for his decision, he has prioritized the task of resolving the economic crisis by working with all political parties, and his neutrality will help him enlist their cooperation. This may sound a plausible explanation, but one can argue that the President is only making a virtue of necessity, for it is well-nigh impossible for his party, the UNP, to improve its electoral performance, much less win an election, anytime soon; it was reduced to a single National List seat at the last general election in 2020.
The Election Commission (EC) has initiated the process of conducting the LG elections for all practical purposes. It has called for nominations, which will be accepted from 18 to 21 January, and some political parties and Independent groups have already made deposits, and electoral alliances are being formed. But the Opposition would have the public believe that the government has not given up its efforts to postpone the LG polls.
There was a real hullabaloo in the parliament on Thursday, when Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, in his capacity as the Minister of Provincial Councils and Local Government Authorities, presented a ministerial report on two motions that had been tabled by SJB MP Imthiaz Bakeer Marker and SLPP MP Premanath Dolawatte, separately, seeking to increase youth representation in local councils through some amendments to the Local Authorities Elections Act. The Opposition viewed the ministerial report as an attempt to introduce a new law in a hurry and cause the LG polls to be postponed. Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe discounted that view, and assured that the government would not interfere in the affairs of the EC, by neither the Opposition nor the discerning public is convinced.
Glimmer of hope?
President Wickremesinghe’s decision to remain neutral at the LG elections could be considered an indication that the government has reconciled itself to the fact it has run out of options and cannot put off the polls again, and the President is trying to dissociate himself from the UNP so that he cannot be blamed if it faces another electoral defeat, which is very likely. This may be a glimmer of hope for those who are all out to prevent the government from delaying the LG polls further.
But bad news is that the EC is reportedly divided on the LG polls. President Wickremesinghe has met the EC members together with the Attorney General and urged them to reach a consensus on the matter as soon as possible because it should not keep the public in suspense any longer. The EC is expected to announce its decision on Monday (09).
Presidential neutrality
Wickremesinghe will not be the first President to remain neutral during an electoral contest if the LG polls are held. President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga did so in 2004, when her bete noire, Mahinda Rajapaksa, ran for President. She had not forgiven Mahinda, who had turned hostile towards her and her late husband Vijaya Kumaratunga, and gone all out to prevent her from rejoining the SLFP in the early 1990s. He had also scolded her at a public rally while they were in the Opposition. Settling personal scores, she not only remained neutral at the 2004 presidential election but also ensured that the SLFP did not throw its weight behind Rajapaksa. In fact, she was partial to UNP candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe in the fray. The state media organizations, which were under President Kumaratunga, did not support Rajapaksa, who was dependent entirely only a section of the SLFP consisting led by Mangala Samaraweera, Maithripala Sirisena, Jeyaraj Fernandopulle, and Nimal Siripala de Silva, and the JVP to conduct his election campaign and secure the presidency.
It was no secret that President Kumaratunga wished for Rajapaksa’s defeat, as Sirisena has revealed in Aththai, Saththai, a fawning biography launched in 2010. She was planning to field her brother Anura Bandaranaike as the SLFP’s presidential candidate, Sirisena has said, in the book. According to anecdotal evidence, there was a secret plan by the SLFP leadership to ruin Mahinda’s chances of winning the presidency by having him arrested on the eve of the presidential election over alleged mishandling of tsunami funds.
President Maithripala Sirisena chose to remain neutral during the 2015 parliamentary polls, and the 2019 presidential election. He became the President with the help of the UNP in January 2015, and wanted that party to win the general election, held six months later, even though he had grabbed the SLFP leadership by that time. He did so for three reasons—gratitude, his pledge to form a national government with the UNP as an ally, and his fear that Mahinda Rajapaksa would become the Prime Minister and undermine him in case of the SLFP-led UPFA’s victory. He knew that the UPFA parliamentary group would side with Mahinda if the latter became the PM. He in fact helped the UNP by demoralizing the SLFP voters; he declared in an address to the nation ahead of the election that there was no guarantee that he would make Mahinda the PM even if the SLFP won the general election. He said he had opposed the party decision to field Mahinda as the Prime Ministerial candidate.
President Sirisena again decided against supporting any of the candidates in the presidential race in 2019 although he had smoked the peace pipe with the Rajapaksa family by then. He was partial to Sajith Premadasa, who contested from the UNP-led National Democratic Front; he did not want to back Gotabaya Rajapaksa, although the SLFP was part of the SLPP-led alliance. It was rumored that some of the scathing propaganda attacks on Gotabaya in the run-up to the election were carried out from the Presidential Secretariat. The SLFP has denied that claim.
Ranil’s smart move
The main reason for the collapse of the UNP-SLFP joint administration in 2018 was the LG polls, where President Sirisena backed the SLFP and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe the UNP. Both parties lost the elections badly, and started fighting thereafter, and things came to a head a few months later with the SLFP pulling out of the Yahapalana government and President Sirisena trying to oust PM Wickremesinghe but to no avail.
President Wickremesinghe seems to have learnt from experience. He does not want to support the UNP and antagonize the SLPP, which made him the President; he is also dependent on the SLPP for parliamentary support. It will be disadvantageous for him to be seen to be backing the UNP for another reason. If the UNP loses the LG polls, as expected, his political opponents can use its defeat against him and bolster their claim that he is without a popular mandate. If he remains neutral, his relations with the SLPP will not turn sour and he will be able to disclaim responsibility for the UNP’s defeat in case the EC reaches a consensus and decides to go ahead with the LG polls.
