By P.K.Balachandran
Colombo, September 14: Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had alleged that the US would not have schemed to oust her from power if she had only handed over St.Martin’s island in the Bay of Bengal to it.
The charge was denied by the US. But earlier, when Bangladesh was part of Pakistan, the Pakistan government had offered the island to the US. Currently, the island is a subject of dispute between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Be that as it may, Hasina’s allegation brought into focus the strategic importance of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) for the US and its allies like India.
The BOB is at the crossroads between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean through which extensive maritime traffic transits. Although full-scale wars are unlikely to be fought in the BOB, it is a “grey zone” where there could be military operations below the threshold of high-intensity military conflict between the US/India on the one hand and China on the other.
In a paper published by the Centre for International Maritime Security, University of Texas scholar Mohammad Rubaiyat Rahman says that a variety of non-military competitive actions come under the rubric of “grey zone”.
Adversaries could impede economic exploitation or hamper safe passage though the BOB. An adversary country could assert his maritime interests at the expense of other States in the grey zone.
China’s ceaseless endeavour to penetrate the BOB through Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka makes it a grey zone for the US and India.
BOB littoral states like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have depended onChina for economic and infrastructure development. China has constructed ports, roads, pipelines, and railway tracts in these littoral states. In American eyes, these developmental activities constitute China’s “grey zone activities” in the BOB of potential strategic value.
To the US these projects enhance China’s military access in the region. America also fears that China is earning significant political leverage over decision-making in these countries.
Rahman points out that for many littoral states of the BOB, China is a major supplier of military hardware. Bangladesh has operationalized the country’s only submarine base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, constructed with Chinese financial and technical assistance.
According to Rahman, China sold two Type 035 G Ming-class submarines to Bangladesh in 2016, and a B-variant Ming-class submarine to Myanmar in 2021. Chinese submarine crews were posted to these nations for training purposes. These deals increase China’s competitiveness in the BOB grey zone.
Thailand has signed deals with China to acquire surface warships and submarines for its navy. Myanmar’s airstrip extensions and construction of aviation hangers on the Great Coco Island suggests Chinese involvement and potential uses for maritime surveillance, Rahman writes.
Oceanographic survey vessel activity, and undersea operations are also part of grey zone operations. The frequent visits of Chinese oceanographic survey vessels are a key indicator that China is seeking a better understanding of the undersea environment in the BOB. These activities pave the way for submarine operations.
The oceanographic vessel Shi Yan 1 was used in the Indian exclusive economic zone adjacent to the Andaman Nicobar Islands. The Xiang Yang Hong 06 conducted joint scientific surveys in the territorial sea of Myanmar in February 2020. The same vessel, prior to the Myanmar visit, had conducted research on the seabed of Sri Lanka’s territorial sea,according to Rahman.
These survey vessels also often switch off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders, which makes it difficult to track their locations and activities.
India’s Response
The Indian Navy’s Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region exchanges of information with select partners in the BOB. The littoral states of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar are among the partners in this security collaboration structure. The Indian Navy has deployed coastal surveillance radar systems in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar.
“India has purchased twelve American-made P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, the sale of which the US encouraged as a way to deepen its security ties with India. The P-8Is offer not only superior surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, but also greater speed and longer endurance, making them better anti-submarine warfare platforms.”
“India also established the Baaz naval air station on Great Nicobar Island at the southern end of the Nicobar Islands, only 450 km from the Malacca Strait. From the start, India intended to extend the station’s 3,500-foot runway to accommodate the P-8Is. While the runway was lengthened by 800 feet by 2022, environmental concerns have slowed further construction,” Rahman notes.
He further says that in 2019, India established the Kohassa naval air station on North Andaman Island a suspected Chinese intelligence outpost on Myanmar’s Coco Island.
According to Rahman, India has plans to extend the Kohassa station’s runway to accommodate P-8Is. At the time of writing, only the Utkrosh naval air station in the Nicobar and Andaman Islands has a runway long enough to service the new aircraft. That station is currently home to a squadron of short-range Do-228 maritime patrol aircraft.
“More broadly, in 2019, India announced a ten-year infrastructure upgrade program to deploy new aircraft, warships, and anti-ship missile batteries throughout the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Some elements have now been deployed. The Indian navy rebased a Kora-class guided-missile corvette to Port Blair, and the Indian air force established a forward base for its Su-30MKI fighters on Car Nicobar. The Indian army has test fired its Brahmos anti-ship missiles from the islands.”
Though the Indian Navy is strengthening itself, it is the US Navy which needs to helm the anti-Chinese grey zone operations, Rahman recommends.
Through the Joint Combined Exercise Training (JCET), the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) and the Malabar Exercise, the U.S. Navy has helped regional navies support maritime security and maritime domain awareness in the BOB through exercises such as the Malabar exercise.
The Malabar exercise involves mobile anti-submarine training target exercise, cross-deck helicopter operations, and surface gunnery exercises.
Base in the Andaman Islands
The Andaman and Nicobar (A and N) Islands, which are part of India, are key to India’s security. The A and N islands are only 22 miles from Myanmar. At the southern end, the Indira Point is just 90 miles from Indonesia’s Aceh province and the coast of Thailand lies 270 miles to the east.
In stark contrast, Port Blair the capital of And N islands is about 850 miles from Chennai and Kolkata.
Only 31 of the Andaman archipelago’s 836 islands are inhabited, which means that some of them could be surreptitiously occupied and used against Indian and Western shipping, warns former Indian naval chief, Adm. Arun Prakash in an article in Indian Express.
Prakash recalls that as early as in 1962, a Chinese submarine was sighted off the Andamans. In September 1965, after the commencement of India-Pakistan war, Pakistan President Ayub Khan sent retired Air Marshal Asghar Khan as an emissary to seek support from Indonesia.
Air Marshal Khan was taken aback when the Indonesian navy chief, Admiral Martadinata, asked him: “Don’t you want us to take over the Andaman Islands? They are an extension of Sumatra and are, in any case, between East Pakistan and Indonesia. What right have the Indians to be there?”
Since then, India has upgraded the detachment in the Andaman and Nicobar islands to a joint/unified operational command — the Andaman Nicobar Command (ANC) in Port Blair.
AdmArun Prakash recommends that the base in the Andamans maintains a three-dimensional maritime domain awareness through networked assets, including radars, aircraft, satellites and unmanned vehicles. The command must be invested with adequate defensive and offensive firepower, as well as rapid-reaction forces with amphibious and airlift capabilities.
US Base?
Indian media had quoted a RAND Corporation assessment, titled “Overseas Basing of US Military Forces” as saying that the Navy would strive to station a detachment of broad area maritime surveillance UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles or drones) at Port Blair airport in the Andaman Islands, to increase surveillance over the Strait of Malacca.
But the US denied it, saying that RAND was not a government body and that it could only make suggestions.
According to Adm.Arun Prakash, in 1947, the departing British wanted to retain the Andaman Islands. But Prime Minister Clement Atlee shot it down.
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