By Kassapa
There is intense speculation that the much-awaited alliance between the United National Party (UNP) and the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) may finally materialise. The reason for this hype and renewed enthusiasm are comments from the leaders of the two parties.
UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was quizzed by reporters recently on a different issue and his response was “I am not in politics now”. Encouraging as that may sound, Wickremesinghe’s critics say that they heard the same words after the Grand Old Party was routed and reduced to just one seat at the 2020 general election. Promises of grooming the next leader of the UNP under a ‘Leadership Council’ followed but many months later it was Wickremesinghe who took that solitary seat on the National List and the rest, as they say, is history.
The other remarks come from SJB and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa. On his social media account Premadasa noted that “another round of talks had been held” and described the discussions as successful, adding that he is hopeful they will lead to a ‘victorious conclusion’.
There was indeed a second round of discussions between Premadasa, who was accompanied by his General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara and the UNP, represented by Ruwan Wijewardena, Thalatha Atukorale, Navin Dissanayake, Akila Viraj Kariyawasam, and Sagala Ratnayaka. Barring Atukorale and Dissanayake, the other three are staunch Wickremesinghe loyalists.
Even if the talks can be described as ‘progress’, there are many thorny issues to be resolved. Among them is what shape and form a UNP-SJB alliance would take. There are those, both in the UNP and the SJB, who believe it should be in the form of SJB members being welcomed back to their political ancestral home. They cite how Dingiri Banda Wijetunge invited Gamini Dissanayake to return to the UNP. Ironically, that was after the assassination of Ranasinghe Premadasa, Sajith’s father. The rationale behind this is that the SJB consists of UNPers who broke away only because of a leadership dispute between Wickremesinghe and Premadasa and if that is now resolved, and if an alliance is being contemplated in good faith, there is no reason to bicker about being different entities anymore.
However, not all are convinced, especially on the UNP side of the divide. Some UNPers argue that it was they who remained with the party through thick and thin- and it has been more thin than thick in recent years- and to now invite those who ‘betrayed’ the party is simply not fair. The majority of those who hold this view are those backed Wickremesinghe and vehemently opposed Premadasa during the dispute between the two. They fear that if Premadasa is handed over the leadership on a platter with all its powers at his disposal, there would be a purge of Wickremesinghe loyalists, quite a likely possibility. Heading this list is Vajira Abeywardena.
Even some SJB members feel that the degree of mistrust between the UNP and the SJB has reached such levels that the safer option would be to form an alliance to start with and have a ‘trial’ period of working together, with the upcoming provincial council elections providing an ideal opportunity to test the relationship. That would be the ‘living together’ period before marriage, which would also allow both parties to separate if the union does not work well.
Another issue that needs to be resolved is how any proposed alliance should functon. There have been discussions about forming a ‘joint working committee’ which would become the highest decision-making body of the new alliance. By virtue of their numerical superiority in Parliament, the SJB is likely to insist on having a majority in this committee. The UNP, on the other hand, would want at least equal representation from the two parties citing the fact that it is the more established party with a history of governing the country for many decades and having a symbol, the elephant, that is deeply etched in the minds of the Sri Lankan public.
Another obstacle before the two parties is a key policy issue: Wickremesinghe is insisting that the opposition should work with other major political parties, most notably the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) if it is to win the next national elections as the National Peoples’ Power (NPP) government’s popularity still remains considerably high. His views are tempered by the fact that he was able to work with the SLPP during his Presidency. Premadasa vehemently opposes any association with the SLPP, his reasoning being that it is very much a tainted entity and any link with it will only cost votes. Premadasa’s critics however are of the view that this is an excuse to prevent being upstaged by the SLPP’s heir-apparent, Namal Rajapaksa, if they were in one, broad, alliance.
All these issues however pale into insignificance when considering the major factor, that of who would be leading the proposed ‘alliance’. The SJB wants its pound of flesh on this issue, insisting that Premadasa should be the undisputed leader as the SJB has commanded the greater proportion of the popular vote vis-à-vis the UNP at the most recent elections and, as a result, has 40 seats in Parliament when the UNP has no party members who contested from the ‘elephant symbol’ and won. This is where Wickremesinghe’s remark about not being in politics anymore assumes significance.
As discussions stand now, the logical next step is a one-to-one, face-to face meeting between Premadasa and Wickremesinghe. If this eventuates, it could help clear up many of the outstanding issues and pave the path to some sort of working arrangement at least, even if it is not a full-scale reunion. Wickremesinghe however is preoccupied with his court case for alleged misappropriation of public funds which will take the form of a Trial at Bar and will be called in March. In an ironical twist, if he is found guilty and is compelled to remove himself from the UNP leadership, it could lead the way for a speedier resolution of this issue, just as much as Ranasinghe Premadasa removal’s from politics by his assassination created a reason for the UNP to welcome Gamini Dissanayake back to the fold.
Therefore, there is still many a hurdle to overcome before the UNP and the SJB can sign on the dotted line. The UNP has yielded much but the SJB is asking for Wickremesinghe to go. Therein lies the problem.
