Voter apathy setting as campaigns hot up?

By Vishvanath

Politicians are very enthusiastic about the upcoming local government (LG) polls—naturally. More than 80,000 candidates are in the fray. Most of them and their leaders are doing their damnedest to muster votes. But the question is whether voters are as enthusiastic as the candidates and their leaders.

 Sri Lankans are known for their preoccupation with politics and a high level of engagement in the electoral process, but speculation is rife in political circles that the overall voter turnout is likely to be relatively low in next month’s LG elections. Among those who hold this view are seasoned election monitors, who have expressed concern about the possibility of voter apathy setting in. A decline in voter participation in elections is not a healthy sign, given the rise of anti-politics, which is the people’s disillusionment with established political parties, institutions and practices.   

Political parties and independent groups are currently in overdrive to rally as much popular support as possible with the LG polls being only about two weeks away. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake himself is leading the NPP’s election campaign. He is sparing no pains to ensure his party’s victory. Unlike his predecessors, he is even addressing election meetings in villages, making one wonder if the JVP/NPP is without anyone else capable of carrying out the government’s election campaign at the grassroots level. Given the NPP’s very high stakes in the upcoming electoral contest, why the President is exerting himself so hard is understandable. His rivals are doing likewise in a bid to make a comeback.

Opposition and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa is also campaigning hard in a bid to give the NPP a run for its money. The SJB is intensifying its anti-government campaign at all fronts. Other Opposition notables, such as SLPP National Organizer Namal Rajapaksa, too, are striving to improve their electoral performance. Leader of the United Republican Front Champika Ranawaka is carrying out a frontal attack on the government. He marshals his facts and figures effectively and analyzes them clinically. However, the contest will be between the NPP and the SJB although the mixed representation system will enable most other parties and independent groups to secure some seats.

The LG polls campaign has already got down and dirty although there have been no serious incidents. The government and the Opposition have launched ruthless propaganda wars via social media; they are trading abuse liberally and even carrying out vilification campaigns. It is however doubtful whether they will be able to enthuse the public considerably.

Executive Director of the People’s Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL) Rohana Hettiarachchi is among the election monitors who expect a low voter turnout in the upcoming election. Voter apathy sets in due to several factors. It could result from a lack of trust in politicians, political systems, and the electoral process, people’s disillusionment with ineffective governance, lack of knowledge of candidates, and, above all, the perception that all parties are the same. Voter apathy nurtures anti-politics.

Election fatigue could also lead to voter apathy. There have already been two national elections since late last year, and both have been won by the NPP. They were preceded by intense campaigning. Prolonged election periods tend to leave the public tired. Besides, the Opposition supporters may be demoralized. The ruling party supporters also tend to be complacent after back-to-back wins.

Voter apathy could affect the NPP’s electoral performance. The JVP/NPP is without a massive vote or support base as such; it benefited from a huge protest vote last year. Floating voters who had backed the SLPP were so frustrated that they supported the NPP amidst the country’s worst-ever economic crisis and the resultant hardships and uncertainty. However, not all of them are likely to vote for the NPP in future elections. They are known to switch their allegiances. Some of them are thought to be disillusioned with the current administration as it has not been able to bring about the radical change it promised during the presidential and parliamentary election campaigns. It is therefore likely that the disillusioned floating voters will not support any political party.  

Hettiarachchi has said the voter turnout is typically low in LG elections.  However, there could be exceptions. Situations could occur where the LG polls attract more voters than they usually do. The 2018 LG polls assumed the same importance as a national election, for it was the first electoral contest the UNP-led Yahapalana government faced after its victory in the 2015 general election. The so-called National Unity government consisting of the UNP, the SLFP and their allies postponed the Provincial Council (PC) elections due in 2017 by amending the PC Elections Act as it was wary of facing a midterm election. Strangely, the amendment Bill received the backing of other political parties as well; they included the ITAK, which is now demanding that the PC polls be held without further delay. The SLPP, formed by the SLFP dissidents led by the Rajapaksas, was firing on all cylinders in 2018, so the voter turnout increased sharply in the LG elections. The Election Commission has pointed out in its Performance Report (2018) that according to the electoral register of 2017, ‘the number of registered electors was 15,760,867 and the votes polled pertaining to the local authorities elections was 12,561,193. It is a high rate of 79.69% and is a higher polled value, no matter what the election or the circumstance’. The Yahapalana government lost the polls, and its defeat proved to be its undoing.

The 2018 LG polls generated much public enthusiasm because former President Mahinda Rajapakasa himself led the SLPP’s campaign. Although he had lost the 2015 presidential election and failed to secure the premiership in that year’s general election, he remained popular and succeeded in mobilizing the public, thereby preparing the ground for the following year’s regime change. President Dissanayake is also trying to do so by leveraging his popular appeal in a bid to ensure his party’s victory and frustrate the Opposition’s all-out efforts to unsettle the government. He has been travelling across the country the way Mahinda did in 2018. Unlike Mahinda, Dissanayake is in a better position as the incumbent President. Whether his efforts will be crowned with success, with the voter turnout increasing to the same level as last year remains to be seen.