By Kassapa
After an all too brief respite, elections are here again, now for local government institutions. These polls, originally scheduled for early 2023 were postponed by then President Ranil Wickremesinghe in his capacity as Finance Minister citing a lack of funds, an action for which he was later sanctioned by the Supreme Court.
One would expect the ruling Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) to be victorious at the May 6 election. It was less than six months ago that the party swept the general election, recording well over a two-thirds majority with 159 seats in Parliament and securing 61 per cent of the popular vote. The JJB secured victories not only in the South of the country but also in the North, East and plantation regions. Now though, the reality is that the state of play on the ground is not the same.
Undoubtedly, the JJB government and most certainly President Anura Kumara Dissanayake still retains a significant level of popularity. That should get them over the line to win at least a majority of local councils. However, it is also unlikely to record the kind of record-breaking landslide they won at the general election.
There are many reasons for this. Firstly, there is the burden of incumbency which befalls any government. This will affect the JJB government as well even though they were elected to office barely six months ago. This phenomenon is more marked when a government is elected to office with great expectations, as the JJB was.
Then, there is a growing sense of unease, at least among a segment of the population, that “nothing is happening”. This is not entirely true. Legal proceedings have been initiated in several cases that were in limbo during previous administrations although no big names are behind bars yet. Three former Chief Ministers have been detained. An Inspector General of Police (IGP) has been suspended. Nevertheless, many more alleged criminal and corrupt elements roam free, still strut on the political stage, some even challenging the government to catch them if they can.
There is also a feeling that none of the major reforms promised by the JJB during their election campaigns- the abolition of the Executive Presidency, the creation of an Office of an Independent Prosecutor, the repealing of the Prevention of Terrorism Act, to mention a few examples- are being talked about now. It is almost as if the government has forgotten about these pledges.
Then, there are the blunders committed by various JJB ministers and MPs. Beginning with former Speaker Ashoka Ranwala’s doctorate (which is yet to be confirmed and is most likely a figment of his imagination), these gaffes keep coming. From Deputy Minister Sunil Watagala saying he knew the whereabouts of suspended IGP Deshabandu Tennakoon when he was missing and also calling his driver a ‘donkey’ in public to Nalin Hewage uttering falsehoods about the country’s financial reserves, they keep embarrassing the government with unnerving regularity.
What all of this means is that the JJB government’s esteem is slipping in the eyes of the average voter. Even Dissanayake seems to be powerless to stem the tide, so he does what is next best- take the campaign into his own hands and engage in it, while attracting criticism that he is foregoing his presidential duties for a measly local government election.
If these are the issues that handicap the government, what are the prospects of the opposition? The main opposition party- at least in Parliament- the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) is still reeling from the shock defeats it suffered in 2024 at the presidential and general elections, Sajith Premadasa coming a distant second to Dissanayake and then being trounced in the general election.
It doesn’t take an expert to realise that the SJB needed reset, a complete overhaul of policies and leadership. Almost six months later, it has got neither. It is hanging on to the tag of being the single largest opposition in party in Parliament by virtue of which Premadasa remains as Leader of the Opposition.
The SJB could do well in some urban areas and is in with a chance for the grand prize, the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) but that does not translate into being an effective opposition or projecting themselves as an alternative government? They are yet to win an election as a party and, if the long list of defeats keeps growing, Premadasa will only be following in Wickremesinghe’s footsteps in leading his party into political oblivion. That is why winning at least the CMC might be crucial for the SJB.
The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) is in a worse plight, being almost eliminated from Parliament at the last general election. However, this will be the first campaign that Namal Rajapaksa personally leads. Some SLPPers who supported Wickremesinghe have returned to the fold but there is little else to show for the party to regain the trust of voters. It too is looking at another defeat and if it can secure at least a council or two, that will be a bonus. The party will still retain its faithful who are blindly loyal to the Rajapaksa clan and live to fight another day.
It is not so for the United National Party (UNP) which Wickremesinghe leads. The former President has no intention of stepping down from the party leadership or even identifying a successor and grooming him. It would be premature to say that these elections will be the final nail in the UNP coffin but the funeral rites will have to begin after the poll.
Wickremesinghe has hinted, several times, that the UNP and the SJB should combine their councillors to thwart the JJB from gaining control of local bodies. In theory this is possible because there will be many councils where no party secures a simple majority. However, whether the SJB will play ball remains to be seen as some of its stalwarts are still engaging in their favourite pastime of Wickremesinghe bashing.
This is an election where all major contenders- the JJB, SJB, SLPP and the UNP- are all trying to save their blushes. This will undoubtedly be reflected in the post-election comments when they will all try to claim a ‘victory’ of sorts.
