By Kassapa
The marriage of convenience between Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Rajapaksas which earned the former the sobriquet ‘Ranil Rajapaksa’ is at breaking point now and is bound to be tested even more in the coming weeks, as dates for accepting nominations for the presidential elections get nearer.
To better understand the dynamics of this relationship, it must be remembered that Wickremesinghe and the Rajapaksas were thrown together not because they like each other but because they needed each other for survival, vis-à-vis the events of mid-2022, when the administration headed by Gotabaya Rajapaksa first nosedived and then crashed.
Gotabaya fled overseas and Mahinda Rajapaksa sought refuge in a Navy camp in Trincomalee. The entire Rajapaksa empire was at stake. There was uncertainty about who would succeed the fleeing President. Fortunately for the Rajapaksas, Wickremesinghe was already in place as Prime Minister and, by default, became Acting President.
The deal that was struck was simple: Wickremesinghe undertook not to dissolve Parliament prematurely and also not to prosecute the Rajapaksas (which he didn’t do even in 2015). In return the Rajapaksas ensured his selection as President in Parliament, over and above the nominee from their own party, Dullas Alahapperuma.
In power, Ranil Wickremesinghe found himself facing the same plight as Maithripala Sirisena: he was the Executive President but he had no party to derive strength in Parliament. Just as Sirisena had to rely on one-time rivals in the United National Party (UNP), Wickremesinghe had to rely on one-time rivals from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
Wickremesinghe is however not a political simpleton like Sirisena. Slowly but surely, he set about the task of cultivating SLPP MPs. What he inherited from Rajapaksa suited him: it was not a Cabinet of the big guns of the SLPP; they had already been purged by Rajapaksa in a bid to appease an angry public. Barring a few exceptions, it was the ‘B’ team of the SLPP.
That suited Wickremesinghe just as well. He wooed and won them over during the past two years. Now, with less than a hundred days left of his Presidency and the prospect of an election staring at him, they are singing his praises and campaigning for him, much to the chagrin of the SLPP.
This has been causing unease among the Rajapaksa family for some time. The senior Rajapaksas- Mahinda and Basil mostly- have hinted from time to time that Wickremesinghe should stop attempting to seduce their MPs and ministers. Sometimes, their mouthpiece has been their General Secretary, Sagara Kariyawasam. His recent outburst that the SLPP would “consider” endorsing Wickremesinghe for the presidential election if he obtained SLPP membership was a deliberate attempt to convey to Wickremesinghe that he should not take their party for granted.
On another occasion, it was announced that SLPP members should refrain from making public pronouncements about a presidential candidate or from endorsing particular individuals. The likes of Prasanna Ranatunga and Ali Sabry were oblivious to this, advertising Wickremesinghe’s virtues and hailing him as the only leader who can ‘save’ Sri Lanka.
Wickremesinghe himself has carried on regardless. He has encouraged a group from the SLPP led by Nimal Lanza and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa to form the so-called ‘New Alliance’ to support him, irrespective of whether the SLPP endorses him or not. The Nimal Siripala de Silva faction of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) is also now cosying up to this New Alliance.
The SLPP leadership has been feeling the pinch for some time. This is why they floated Dhammika Perera to play the role of ‘Plan B’. That has only prompted Wickremesinghe loyalists in the SLPP to up the ante. Now they are openly canvassing for Wickremesinghe, launching a series of rallies styled ‘Ekwa Negitimu’ (United We Stand). The first was held in Matara organised by Minister Kanchana Wijesekera, formerly a close friend of Namal Rajapaksa but now firmly in Wickremesinghe’s camp. The second was held in Kandy organised by former minister Mahindananda Aluthgamage who once famously said that he was unable to sleep until Wickremesinghe is jailed!
Matters came to a head last week. Prasanna Ranatunga, Chief Government Whip called for a show of hands to endorse Wickremesinghe as a candidate at the third ‘Ekwa Negitimu’ rally at Kadawatha. The crowd gave an enthusiastic roar but Wickremesinghe said he would respond to the invitation at the appropriate time.
Having witnessed Wickremesinghe lure away ardent Rajapaksa loyalists to his own camp while still being an appointed President beholden to the SLPP for a parliamentary majority, the party’s leadership is now shivering at the thought of sponsoring him for another five years as elected president when he will have a greater hold on the next Parliament.
The thinking among a section of the SLPP led by Namal Rajapaksa is that if Wickremesinghe is given this opportunity, there will be no SLPP left at the end of five years. This group argues that, even if it means foregoing this election (which may happen anyway), it would be prudent to endure short term pain for long term gain, focus their energies on 2029, and let Wickremesinghe run his own race with the SLPP fielding a ‘nominal’ candidate (i.e. Dhammika Perera) which will also effectively ruin any slight chance that Wickremesinghe has of emerging victorious.
This view is shared by the leadership layer of the SLPP who must worry not only about the next election but also about how they would ensure there is a party still left for their next generation. Understandably, others in the SLPP do not share this view because the positions they get are only the crumbs left after the spoils have been distributed first among the Rajapaksas- so why should they wait for five years more when they may stand a better chance with Wickremesinghe right now?
This then is the dilemma facing the SLPP right now. In the coming weeks, each and every SLPP politician will have to make a crucial decision: stay with the Rajapaksas or side with Wickremesinghe? We saw this play out in a crucial meeting at SLPP headquarters on Tuesday when Kanchana Wijesekera and Namal Rajapaksa made contrasting statements about their preferences for a presidential candidate.
Then, within the next week or so, Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksas, more so the latter must decide whether they sign nomination papers together- or file papers for divorce.
