Rallying the ‘Joint Opposition’- Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark?

The so-called latest version of the ‘Joint Opposition’ held a media briefing last week to herald their second coming, a rally at Nugegoda on November 21, styled the ‘Mahaa Jana Handa’ or the ‘Great Voice of the People’. The main parties in attendance were the United National Party (UNP), the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).

Oppositions have got to do what they have to do, to stay relevant and in the conscience of the public. After all, the UNP and the SLFP which ruled the country alternatively for seven decades were unable to return any members under their own banner at the last general election, their members being scattered everywhere. The SLPP secured just three per cent of the vote and three Members of Parliament, down from a whopping 145 at the previous poll in 2020.

The Nugegoda meeting follows a familiar script: A month and ten days after Mahinda Rajapaksa’s surprising defeat in January 2015 to Maithripala Sirisena, Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila and Vasudeva Nanayakkara instigated a similar rally, also at Nugegoda titled ‘Mahinda Sulanga’ and its rhetoric targeted the ‘Yahapalanaya’ government headed by Sirisena and Ranil Wickremesinghe.

It was a success and led to the prominence of the SLPP, that party subsequently gaining power in 2019, thanks mostly due to bungling and infighting within the ‘Yahapalanaya’ administration and the negative fallout from the Easter Sunday terror attacks.

The stage is now set for an encore, ironically with the SLPP joining hands with the UNP and the SLFP to oppose the Jathika Jana Balavegaya or National Peoples’ Power (NPP) government. This fusion of erstwhile political arch-rivals is in itself farcical. There is nothing in common between the parties except political expediency and the fact that they are all ‘down and out’ politically. Either party, by itself, will struggle to muster a crowd.

Nevertheless, the Nugegoda meeting will be watched with interest for the slogans that will emerge from the stage that day, especially for any indication as to whether they will function as a single political entity in the future. That though is a highly unlikely possibility. 

Conspicuous by its absence at Nugegoda will be the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), the largest opposition party in Parliament with 40 seats and 17 per cent of the vote. SJB Parliamentarian S.M. Marikkar, who can be considered His Master’s (Sajith Premadasa’s) Voice, categorically stated that the SJB will not be there as it had major policy differences with the participating parties. For once, the SJB has taken a wise decision instead of sitting on the fence and issuing ambivalent statements.

The SJB has nothing to gain and everything to lose if it is identified with the other parties at Nugegoda, especially the SLPP. Already it is ruing its decision to oppose the government’s crackdown on crime in Parliament and outside which has revealed links to SLPP politicians at a grassroots level. This is a move that has public backing and they are not going to win any votes by being critical about it. As more and more criminal and corrupt activities of the SLPP (and perhaps even elements of the UNP) are unearthed by this government, the SJB stands to lose by standing with them. Premadasa has realised this and has made a deliberate decision to ‘go it alone’, an astute move indeed.

The other factor influencing Premadasa and the SJB are the provincial council elections. Postponed for about a decade, they will definitely be held next earlier in keeping with the NPP’s election pledge and will be held earlier in the year rather than later. Of all the opposition parties, the SJB is best placed to contest the poll. Some of its parliamentarians are already gearing themselves to resign and contest for chief ministerial posts. Some of its stalwarts who couldn’t make it to Parliament are also making preparations. They may not all win, but they can offer a fight to the NPP and some may even emerge victorious. Joining forces with tainted entities such as the SLPP and being seen on stage them will only hurt those chances. That is an added reason to keep away from the Nugegoda meeting.

The other interesting aspect of absenting themselves from Nugegoda is the future of negotiations with the UNP. It is well known that the SJB is divided on this issue. Some want to reunite with the Grand Old Party, others are ambivalent and still others are vehemently against it, believing that all the hard work they have done to build up the SJB to what it is today will be undone if they rejoin the UNP because ‘men in suits and ties’ will then take over. Premadasa belongs to the last category, hence his clear statement that any alliance with the UNP must be on the acceptance of the leadership of the SJB (meaning himself, not Ranil Wickremesinghe) and the SJB’s direction, terms that the UNP will not agree to.

The premise of the UNP-SJB reunification will be put to the test at the provincial council elections. If the parties are to at least work together as an alliance, they will need to enter into a ‘no contest’ agreement with each other. That seems to be a faraway prospect at this time because leaders of the UNP, almost all of whom have been booted out of Parliament, want to present themselves for the provincial poll and that would be at the expense of the SJB. So, with the UNP also being a key player at Nugegoda, the SJB is sending a clear message to them as well: you must dance to our tune, we won’t dance to yours.       

Of course, the Nugegoda rally will still happen. It may even attract a significant crowd of the curious rather than the converts. However, the absence of the SJB underscores one important aspect of the current political equation. The opposition is divided and will become even more so once provincial elections are announced. So, the NPP does not need to panic about this ‘Mahaa Jana Handa’, because it does not truly reflect the voice of the people.