Is Anura doing a Ranil?

By Kassapa 

If one were to capture in a single word the rationale of a majority of voters electing Anura Kumara Dissanayake as President and the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) into government with a two-thirds majority late last year, it would be ‘change’.

Whether the so-called ‘seventy-six-year curse’ of the major parties ruling the country is true or not, there was a palpable desire for a seismic change of the old political order during the public uprising better known as the ‘aragalaya’ that swept Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of office in July 2022.

Rajapaksa was replaced by Ranil Wickremesinghe. If ever there was a symbol of the old political order, it was Wickremesinghe. Never an astute politician, he had by then presided over the virtual demise of the United National Party (UNP). Yet, fate decreed that the six-time Prime Minister be given yet another chance, this time as President. The man who could not win elections in his own right was handed power on a platter because of the desperate plight the Rajapaksas found themselves in.

Had Wickremesinghe had some political foresight, he would have grabbed the opportunity to make history. But Wickremesinghe being Wickremesinghe, he reverted to his bad old ways and failed again, protecting the Rajapaksas and governing in an autocratic manner. Postponing local government elections, appointing Deshabandu Tennakoon against the wishes of the Constitutional Council and berating judges of the highest court in Parliament are some examples of his arrogance while in power.

By the end of his stand-in two-and-a-half-year tenure people were yearning for a change even more. This is the tidal wave that swept Dissanayake and the JJB into power, while making history in ending two-party rule and recording a two-thirds majority for the first time under the proportional representation system, a feat that eluded even Mahinda Rajapaksa after the war victory in 2010.

That Dissanayake and the JJB assumed office with a mountain of expectations is an understatement. During their campaigns, they had set lofty standards for themselves. The question now is, are those expectations being met? Even if it is too early to answer that question, there is a more worrying thought: is the new government following in Wickremesinghe’s footsteps?

They certainly are, in terms of economic policy. Dissanayake, who is also Finance Minister, has explained why. He has said that the previous regime had placed the country in a financial strait-jacket designed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). To forcibly extricate the country out of that now would be to return to the financial hardships of the ‘aragalaya’ era. Hence the decision to stick with the IMF.

There was hardly a whimper about this. Even the main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) could only mock the government for following the IMF dictates, saying ‘we told you so’ and accuse the JJB of misleading the public during their election campaigns where they said they would review or withdraw from the IMP program. In fact, the entire business sector heaved a massive sigh of relief that the new government was not planning an economic overhaul overnight after assuming office.

That is not the problem. There are other matters where the government appears to be slowly but surely veering towards Wickremesinghe-type strategies. Consider for instance its stance on two dubious pieces of legislation, the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and the Online Safety Act (OSA). The JJB was at forefront of campaigns to challenge these laws when they were brough under Wickremesinghe’s direction. From election platforms, Dissanayake waxed eloquent about their dangers and promised to abolish them if they were elected to office.

This week, government announced that the OSA would be retained, albeit with some modifications. There have been similar noises being made about the PTA. Detentions under the PTA continue under Dissanayake’s watch. These haven’t reached the sinister and repressive proportions that were seen during Wickremesinghe’s time but the fact is that the law remains and Dissanayake himself said soon after assuming office, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

There is also a deafening silence about the abolition of the Executive Presidency as we know it. That too was a key election promise. True, this cannot be done overnight and requires a process of consultation leading to the drafting of a new Constitution. The current Constitution was introduced barely a year after J.R. Jayewardene was elected because Jayewardene knew that support for such drastic changes by a new government evaporates fast under the burden of incumbency. As far as we can see, there is hardly any noise about a new Constitution and no talk of a consultation process either.

The latest faux pas of the government- or Dissanayake, to be more accurate- is the attempt to instal an ‘outsider’ as the new Auditor General. It was blocked by the Constitutional Council with accusations that the government was trying to appoint a ‘favourite’ with limited experience in the subject. Now, the next in line in the Department has been given an ‘acting’ appointment for six months. The sense of déjà vu vis-à-vis Deshabandu Tennakoon’s appointment by Wickremesinghe is obvious. Fortunately, Dissanayake didn’t go one step further and appoint his nominee anyway despite the Council’s objections, like Wickremesinghe did with Tennakoon, a matter that is now under the scrutiny of the Supreme Court.

This is not to say that the public have lost all confidence in Dissanayake and the JJB. They haven’t as evidenced by the results of the local government election where they still emerged first in a majority of local councils. If those results were extrapolated into the seat allocation system at a general election, they would have secured 122 seats, a comfortable simple majority but well short of the two-thirds majority they now enjoy.

That perhaps is the best yardstick of the JJB’s standing in the eyes of the public now. They are still very much ahead of the opposition but their support is also slipping. If that continues for five years, the results of the next national election are anybody’s guess. That is what Dissanayake and the JJB must remember, always.