But while Pakistan has got international and Chinese support, India stands isolated
By Abhijit Roy
On May 10, there was an end to military action between India and Pakistan after three days of an intense aerial war. But the prospect of another war has not receded if the statement made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his national address on May 12 is taken seriously.
The belligerence is coming from India, not Pakistan. According to the Press Trust of India, on Thursday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called for a ‘comprehensive dialogue’ between India and Pakistan including on the intractable issue of Kashmir.
But Modi breathed fire in his televised national address on May 12, virtually ruling out talks.
Shehbaz made his comments during a visit to the Kamra (Minhas) air base in Punjab where he interacted with officers and soldiers involved in the recent military confrontation with India.
drones attacked terrorist bases in Pakistan, not only the buildings of terrorist organizations but their courage also was shaken badly. Terrorist bases, like Bahawalpur and Muridke are universities of global terrorism. The big terrorist attacks of the world, be it 9/11, be it London Tube bombings, or the big terrorist attacks which have happened in India in the last many decades their roots are somehow connected to these terrorist hideouts. The terrorists had wiped out the Sindoor of our sisters and India responded by destroying their terrorist headquarters. More than 100 dreaded terrorists have been killed in these attacks by India. Many terrorist leaders were roaming freely in Pakistan for the last two and a half to three decades who used to conspire against India. India killed them in one stroke,” Modi said.
“Instead of supporting India’s strike against terrorism, Pakistan started attacking India itself. Pakistan targeted our schools, colleges, Gurudwaras, temples and houses of civilians. Pakistan targeted our military bases. But in this act Pakistan itself got exposed. The world saw how Pakistan’s drones and missiles fell like straws in front of India. India’s strong air defence system destroyed them in the sky itself.”
“Pakistan had prepared for an attack on the border, but India struck at the heart of Pakistan. India’s drones and missiles attacked with precision. They damaged those airbases of the Pakistani Air Forces, of which Pakistan was very proud. India caused heavy damage to Pakistan in the first three days itself, which it had never imagined.”
Pakistan Was On Its Knees, Modi Said
“Pakistan started looking for ways to escape. Pakistan was pleading to the world to ease tensions. And after suffering heavy losses, Pakistan’s army contacted our DGMO on the afternoon of 10th May. By then, we had destroyed the infrastructure of terrorism on a large scale. The terrorists were eliminated. We had destroyed the terror camps established in the heart of Pakistan. Therefore, when Pakistan appealed and said that it will not indulge in any sort of terror activities or military audacity further, India considered it.”
Modi’s Tough Terms
But what Modi said in continuation is the more important part of his oration. He said, “We have just suspended our retaliatory action against Pakistan’s terror and military camps. In the coming days we will measure every step of Pakistan on the criterion that what sort of attitude Pakistan will adopt ahead. “
“First, if there is a terrorist attack on India, a fitting reply will be given. We will give a befitting response on our terms only. We will take strict action at every place from where the roots of terrorism emerge. Secondly, India will not tolerate any nuclear blackmail. India will strike precisely and decisively at the terrorist hideouts developing under the cover of nuclear blackmail. Thirdly, we will not differentiate between the government sponsoring terrorism and the masterminds of terrorism.”
India’s stand is very clear… Terror and talks cannot go together… Terror and trade cannot go together…. Water and blood cannot flow together.”
“Today, I would also like to tell the global community that our stated policy has been: if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on terrorism; and if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).”
What Modi said was that there would be no talks with Pakistan until terror attacks cease, that the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty would continue so long as Pakistan continues its sponsorship of terrorism and that if there are talks on Kashmir it will only be on the return of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) to India. POK had been taken by Pakistan in the first India-Pakistan war of 1948-49.
By laying these conditions, Modi had categorically rejected talks with Pakistan. And India also made it clear that it had only suspended firing. It has not suspended the prospect of going to war again if Pakistan is suspected to have staged another terror attack.
No Mediation on Kashmir
In this context, India is unlikely to accept US President Donald Trump’s offer of mediation on Kashmir. Apart from the fact that India does not accept third party mediation on Kashmir, it would be well- nigh impossible for any mediator to convince Pakistan to give up its part of Kashmir when it claims the whole of Kashmir on the basis of the fact that Kashmir is a Muslim-majority area. Pakistan points out that as per a principle of India’s partition in 1947, Muslim majority areas had to go to Pakistan.
India’s stand is very clear… Terror and talks cannot go together… Terror and trade cannot go together…. Water and blood cannot flow together.”
“Today, I would also like to tell the global community that our stated policy has been: if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on terrorism; and if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).”
What Modi said was that there would be no talks with Pakistan until terror attacks cease, that the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty would continue so long as Pakistan continues its sponsorship of terrorism and that if there are talks on Kashmir it will only be on the return of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) to India. POK had been taken by Pakistan in the first India-Pakistan war of 1948-49.
By laying these conditions, Modi had categorically rejected talks with Pakistan. And India also made it clear that it had only suspended firing. It has not suspended the prospect of going to war again if Pakistan is suspected to have staged another terror attack.
No Mediation on Kashmir
In this context, India is unlikely to accept US President Donald Trump’s offer of mediation on Kashmir. Apart from the fact that India does not accept third party mediation on Kashmir, it would be well- nigh impossible for any mediator to convince Pakistan to give up its part of Kashmir when it claims the whole of Kashmir on the basis of the fact that Kashmir is a Muslim-majority area. Pakistan points out that as per a principle of India’s partition in 1947, Muslim majority areas had to go to Pakistan.
India’s grandstanding on the issues connected with the war and Modi’s conditions for talks, are unlikely to get support from the world’s powers. In fact, except for Israel and Afghanistan, no country supported India during the short war. All called for restraint in the prosecution of the war and or a ceasefire. There was no universal outrage about terrorism in Pahalgam though India went to war due to the killing of 26 Indian tourists there.
On the contrary, Pakistan Premier Sharif’s call for a comprehensive dialogue is expected to get more support, especially from the US and Western governments. The fact that India has refused to acknowledge America’s role in bringing about the ceasefire is unlikely to be appreciated in Washington. It will only harden its attitude to India.
In fact, Trump said that he was asking Apple not to add more manufacturing facilities in India, but locate them in the US. He also said that India should charge zero duty on US goods. The US is negotiating a trade deal with India. To the shock of Indian he even said that the Indians had agreed to zero duty! Trump’s relationship with Modi is at its nadir.
Pakistan’s Army Gets A Boost In Domestic Politics
key Gulf allies issued boilerplate (standard) statements urging de-escalation from both sides that drew a false equivalence that, in effect, undermined New Delhi’s core message: that it had suffered yet another terror attack sponsored from across the border,” Azhar points out.
India tried to stop the IMF package for Pakistan, but it did not succeed. And the IMF is essentially an American institution.
China has made Pakistan the Regional Stabilizer
Having armed Pakistan with the state-of-the-art aerial combat platforms, China used the war to make Pakistan play the role of regional stabilizer, a role Islamabad was only too happy to adopt with its made-in-China military kit, Azhar observes.
The post-attack narrative had shifted from terrorism to regional tensions. Rather than global condemnation of the militancy at Pahalgam, the prevailing international concern became regional escalation in a nuclear dyad. That shift marked a significant strategic loss for New Delhi, Azhar says.
Modi Weakened.
Modi’s speech on May 12, was meant to boost his image as India’s strong man. While it may have won plaudits from his followers and he may win the Bihar Assembly elections also using the rhetoric. But he has actually trapped himself.
He is being asked to explain how tourists in Pahalgam were given no security in a State like Kashmir frequented by terrorists from across the border? Why was intelligence about a terror strike, if any, ignored? Why India has been unable to pursue the terrorists or at least been able to identify them? Why did Jaishankar say that India had warned Pakistan about a strike against terror camps? The terrorists were allowed to escape and the Pakistan air force was alerted.
The lapdog Indian media has not asked any of these questions. But the opposition Congress is asking for a full debate in parliament, which Modi is unlikely to concede if his past behaviour is any indication. He believes in one-way communication and not discussion and dialogue.
One only hopes there is no more terror strike by Pakistan or any such action that could be attributed to Pakistan. One also hope that India does not go to war again causing enormous damage to its economy. If the claim about India losing a Rafale is true, it means that it had in seconds lost a machine worth US$ 280 million. Pakistan claims five Indian aircraft.
While China will fund Pakistan’s weapons refurbishment program, India will have to buy new equipment with its own funds, that are more needed for boosting its economy.
China Reinforces Claim on Arunachal Pradesh
China’s stand against India has hardened. It has again given Chinese names to more places in Arunachal Pradesh which is a State of India. The total number of places thus renamed has gone up to 90.
And in any future war, India will have to contend with a more active Pakistani-Chinese collaboration especially in the high tech sphere, while India is unlikely to get any help from any of its Western allies.
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