The BJP’s anti-Bengali Muslim movement could vitiate India-Bangladesh relations if it is not checked in time.         
 
By P.K.Balachandran 
 
Colombo, March 28 – The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), helmed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is aiming to score a hat trick in the Assam State Assembly elections to be held on April 9. 
 
The present State Assembly has 126 seats, in which the NDA has 76 (62 of that is accounted for by the BJP) and the UPA has 44, with the Congress accounting for 27. 
 
Winning Formula  
 
The BJP/NDA’s winning formula comprises (1) vilification and marginalisation of Bengali-speaking Muslims dubbed as illegal migrants from Bangladesh (2) consolidation of the Hindu vote by showing the bogey of a Muslim takeover of Assam (3) attracting women voters with cash transfers.  
 
As luck would have it, the BJP/NDA’s prospects are boosted by a weak opposition United Peoples Alliance (UPA), headed by a divided Congress, whose leadership is New Delhi-based and not in Assam. The Congress party’s organisational structure is rickety and plagued by a shortage of volunteers to oversee polling in the booths.   
 
The top-most Assamese Congress leader, Gaurav Gogoi, has an enviable political lineage, but he lacks a strong second line. Moreover, he is a resident of New Delhi, being an MP. He also took too much time to stitch together the UPA. On the other hand, his opponent, Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, is a hands-on man grounded in Assam. In search of a strong local leader, several top Assam Congress leaders have defected to the BJP, securing nominations for the upcoming elections. 
 
Anti-Bengali Muslim Miya Movement 
 
Himanta Biswa Sarma has survived the rough and tumble of politics by a combination of daring, populism, and unabashed antiMuslimism often challenging the law and constitution. He is cued into a basic character of the Assamese psyche – a mortal fear of being obliterated by Miyas, Bengali-speaking Muslims, allegedly illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.  
 
Illegal immigration from Bangladesh has been a defining issue in 
Assam since the early 1970s. It gave rise to the Assam movement, Assamese terrorism and the Assam Accord in 1985, which set a cutoff date for distinguishing native Assamese (Hindu or Muslim) and the immigrants from Bangladesh. However, despite the Accord, the Assamese believed that illegal immigration continued, a feeling fanned by political parties to get Assamese votes, especially the vote of the Hindu Assamese.  
 
Sarma has exploited this sentiment to the maximum, keeping it fanned by ingenious campaigns. He has publicly stated that he encourages “troubling the Miya Muslims” so that they leave Assam.  “Trouble the Miya Muslims by any means. If they face trouble, they will go away from Assam. We are directly against the Miya Muslims. We are not hiding anything.  Earlier, people feared that notices would be served against them. Now, I encourage everyone to give trouble to Miyas.”  
 
He even posed in a video of the State BJP with a gun, apparently aiming at a Miya. The text displayed in the video read – “Foreigner free Assam,” “No mercy,” “Why did you not go to Pakistan?” and “There is no forgiveness to Bangladeshis,” among other phrases. The communist parties went to the Supreme Court and the Court agreed to hear the case. Subsequently,  the video was deleted. However, Sarma never repented. In an interview to Rajat Sharma on Aj Tak TV he said that Assam is polarized and therefore his utterances are kosher. The interviewer did not pursue the matter because Sarma was a BJP strongman.     
 
Congress leaders in Delhi called the video encouragement for a “genocide”. Supriya Shrinate said it revealed the real face of BJP, a party of “mass murderers.” Muslim organisation Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind  approached the Supreme Court. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief and Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi lodged a police complaint against Sarma. Significantly, the Assam Congress was quiet fearing that speaking out for Miyas will alienate the majority Assamese Hindus.     
The anti-Bengali Muslim movement could very well vitiate IndiaBangladesh relations if it is not checked in time.         
 
Disenfranchisement  
 
Sarma went on to threaten that “4-5 Lakh Miya votes will be cut during the Assam Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voters list. He asked BJP workers to file bulk ‘Form 7’ against Miyas. Form 7 is used for raising objections to the inclusion of a name on the voter list.  
 
Disenfranchisement of Muslims is not new. When the National Register of Citizens (NRC) for Assam was produced in 2019,  1.9 million people had been struck off the register. Out of these, 4 to 5 lakhs were believed to be Muslims. Cases of deletion are now stuck in Foreigners Tribunals.  
 
As on date, Muslims make 35% of Assam’s population. There are about 14 lakhs in Upper Assam.  
 
Pakistani Angle      
 
Taking the anti-foreigner war into the Congress camp, Sarma accused 
Gaurav Gogoi of being a “Pakistani agent” as he had gone to the “enemy country” along with his wife, who was working for an international organisation.  
 
However, the BJP/NDA is not oblivious to vulnerability on the Muslim  front. To offset Sarama’s anti-Muslim rant, the BJP’s ally, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), has fielded 13 Muslims candidates (not Miyas) out of the 25 it is contesting. 
 
Wooing Women’s Votes 
 
Sarma is believed to have women voters in his pocket. The Orunodoi scheme provides a monthly direct benefit transfer of Rs 1,250 to more than 38 lakh women. Those who submit LPG connection documents receive an additional Rs 250. The Mukhya Mantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyan (Lakhpati Baideo initiative) provides seed capital of Rs. 10,000 to women in self-help groups to start microenterprises, with additional support contingent on progress. The Nijut Moina Asoni supports girls from the higher secondary to the university level with monthly financial assistance. 
 
Downside 
 
Although many women are beneficiaries of the schemes, tribal women workers in the plantation sector complain of abysmally low wages (INR 250 per day). They have been demanding INR 350 per day in vain. 
 
Then there are caste grievances too. In Upper Assam, the tribal communities of Tai Ahom, Moran, Matak, Chutia and KochRajbongshi are seeking Scheduled Tribe status to avail of State affirmative action schemes. As for economic development, it is concentrated in Guwahati, the lone city in Assam. Outside Guwahati, unemployment is a huge issue.  Sarma also faces opposition from former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal.  
 
Sarma is well known for corruption. Congress supremo Rahul Gandhi had gone around Assam calling Sarma the “most corrupt Chief Minister in India.”  Sarma has cases relating to extortion, murder, terrorism and misuse of authority for personal gain.   
 
But he is unfazed. He has faced the rough and tumble of politics for decades by a combination of chutzpah, populism and unabashed anti-Miyaism, often challenging the law and constitution. And is expected to repeat the feat in April 2026. 
Impact on Indo-Bangladesh Relations 
The unceasing anti-Miya movement in Assam, supported by all centrist and right-wing parties in Assam, and the characterisation of 
Bangladeshi illegal immigrants  as “termites” by the Indian Home Minister Amit Shah, could eventually vitiate India-Bangladesh relations, which are just about improving after the overthrow of the pro-India leader Sheikh Hasina in August 2025. 
But Indian politicians, whether at the State-level or at the all-India level, are so steeped in local politics that they hardly consider what impact their utterances will have on India’s foreign policy and its relations with other countries, especially their neighbours. This situation is unlikely to be corrected any time soon. 
END