Dialectical tensions in NPP govt., and rumors of move to oust PM

By Vishvanath

The problem with political propaganda is that it tends to backfire, as has been the NPP government’s experience. During its election campaigns, the JVP-led NPP gained a great deal of political mileage with its claim that a satellite launched during the Mahinda Rajapaksa government had caused a loss of 320 million US dollars to the state coffers. But in answer to a question, Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya informed the parliament last week that Sri Lanka had made no investment in the satellite project but benefited from it financially. She said her answer was based on information provided by the Board of Investment. Her statement became grist to the SLPP’s mill, and the following day Minister Wasantha Samarainghe made another statement on the satellite project, claiming that the PM’s answer had been based on incorrect data and Sri Lanka had not received any benefits from it.

Traditionally, if a statement made by the Prime Minister is found to contain inaccuracies, no other government member presents a clarification; that task is left to the PM himself or herself. Minister Samarasinghe’s action gave rise to speculation that the JVP was at loggerheads with PM Amarasuriya and undermining her.

Have the JVP and the non-JVP members of the NPP government fallen out, and will the latter break ranks? These questions have dominated political discussion during the last few days, and the government has sought to highlight its unity via social media. Minister Bimal Rathnayake told the media on Wednesday (13) that PM Amarasuriya was a political asset to the NPP just like President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Why he said so is understandable; the Opposition has accused him of eyeing the post of Prime Minister.  

No government, however powerful it may be, is free from internal problems with the potential to lead to splits. That was why J. R. Jayewardene collected undated resignation letters from all his MPs after the UNP’s mammoth victory in the 1977 general election. The SLFP-led United Front government (1970-77) suffered splits although it had a two-thirds majority in the parliament. President Ranasinghe Premadasa was a strong leader and his government had a comfortable majority in the parliament, but a group of dissidents broke away in 1992. The collapse of the powerful Mahinda Rajapaksa government in 2015 was also due to a debilitating split.

The NPP is a fissiparous political alliance not bound by ideological convictions, which hold Marxist parties together. The JVP calls itself a Marxist organization, and the non-JVP members in the NPP government do not espouse any socialist cause. In fact, Prime Minister Amarasuriya, who is identified with the NPP minus the JVP has publicly declared that she is not a Marxist, and some of her political views are at variance with those of the JVP. The non-JVP members of the NPP government are generally described as liberals and they come from middle-class and professional backgrounds.  

The NPP was able to muster adequate popular support across the political spectrum and capture power, last year, not because the non-JVP groups  in the alliance compromised on their liberal ideology to align their views with the JVP’s agenda but because the JVP chose to subjugate its Marxist policies to electoral pragmatism, political expediency, and above all, the current economic reality. It did something similar in 2004, when it coalesced with the SLFP-led UPFA during President Chandrika Bandaranaike’s presidency; 41 of about 55 candidates it fielded in that year’s snap general election on the UPFA ticket were elected, and it gifted two of its National List slots to the SLFP. It lost popular support after leaving the UPFA, and the NPP-led by it had only three seats in the last Parliament.

The JVP does not have a substantial vote base, and its electoral victory last year was due to the formation of the NPP alliance, which enabled it to reimage itself, and ride a wave of floating votes triggered by the present economic crisis and public resentment at the political parties that had been in power. It was the non-JVP NPP members, especially professionals and intellectuals who helped the NPP coalition rally the swing voters, who had voted for Maithripala Sirisena and the UNP-led UNF in 2015 and the SLPP and Gotabaya later. No party can go on riding waves of popular support to win elections indefinitely. Floating votes tend to swing for the Opposition unless the governments formed with their help live up to people’s expectations. There has been a discernible decline in the NPP government’s popularity as evident from the outcome of the May 06 local government (LG) polls. The political parties that win the presidential and parliamentary elections usually go on to sweep the other polls that come in quick succession, but the NPP could not do so in May though it managed to outperform the Opposition again.

What will happen to the JVP if its luck runs out, with its winning streak coming to an end? Will it suffer the same fate as the other leftist parties—such as the Communist Party and the LSSP—which can no longer win elections on their own? Will the JVP be able to revitalize itself ever again as it has compromised its core Marxist ideology and embraced the neo-liberal policies of the previous governments for political expediency? These are some of the questions that the JVP leaders apparently ask themselves. It is not prudent for any party to rely on electoral alliances heavily dependent on floating votes to win elections. This may be the reason why President Anura Kumara Dissanayake made a fiery speech at the 60^th Anniversary of his party, the JVP, in May at the Viharamahadevi Park, Colombo. His speech has come to be viewed as an attempt to boost the sagging morale of the JVP’s rank and file. His much-publicized remark that some of those whom other political parties would not have used as even doormats were going places thanks to the JVP is viewed as an attack on the non-JVP MPs, who strike discordant notes on vital issues. The Opposition has since been derisively calling the non-JVP MPs in the government ‘doormats’ during parliamentary debates.

The Opposition usually exaggerates the ruling party’s internal problems to make the government out to be unstable. Governments also blow intraparty disputes in the Opposition out of proportion for political reasons. The rumors of a rift in the government may be part of a propaganda counterattack by the SJB in retaliation for the government’s claim that Opposition and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa is troubled by a conspiracy to oust him.

Whether the rumors about a rift in the government are true or false, group dynamics, competing ambitions of party seniors, ideological differences, dialectical tensions and the JVP’s penchant for regimenting every aspect of its MPs’ lives have made the NPP administration prone to intraparty disputes. Therefore, the possibility of splits cannot be ruled out. Anything is possible in politics.