By P.K.Balachandran
Colombo, May 26 -“India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem to be managed, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both India’s and Pakistan’s militaries,” says Lt.Gen. Jeffrey Kruse of the USAF.
In a report to the US House of Representatives’ Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations, Gen.Kruse said that for Pakistan, India is the existential threat, and therefore, its focus will be on India.
The General ‘s report was prepared using information available as of 11 May 2025, a day after a ceasefire in the India-Pakistan war came into effect.
Military Situation in India
Briefly recalling the events in the May 7 -10 India-Pakistan air war, Gen. Kruse says – “Following a late April terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, New Delhi conducted missile strikes on terrorism-related infrastructure facilities in Pakistan. The missile strike provoked multiple rounds of missile, drone, and loitering munition attacks, and heavy artillery fire, by both militaries from 7 to 10 May. As of 10 May, both militaries had agreed to a full ceasefire.”
Without commenting on the performance of the two militaries, Gen.Kruse says that India will counter Chinese influence and boost its global leadership role. China had helped Pakistan in the May war by giving it the J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles plus training and intelligence.
In view the emerging challenge, “India is giving priority to advancing its bilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean region through exercises, training, arms sales, and information sharing. India also has increased trilateral engagement in the Indo-Pacific region and actively participates in multilateral fora such as the Quadrilateral, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ASEAN, “ Gen.Kruse notes.
He recalls that in late October 2024, India and China reached an agreement to move forces away from the two remaining contested positions along the disputed Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh. But the disengagement did not resolve the longstanding dispute about border demarcation but reduced some tension still lingering from a 2020 incident when troops on both sides were killed in a clash along the Line of Actual Control.
Gen. Kruse predicts that India “almost certainly will continue promoting its Made in India initiative this year to build its domestic defence industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernize its military. India continued to modernize its military in 2024, conducting a test of the nuclear-capable developmental Agni-I Prime MRBM and the Agni-V multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle while also commissioning its second nuclear-powered submarine to strengthen its nuclear triad and bolster its ability to deter adversaries.”
India will maintain its relationship with Russia through 2025 because it views its ties to Russia as important for achieving its economic and defence objectives and sees value in the relationship as a means to offset deepening Russia-China relations. Under Modi, India has reduced its procurement of Russian-origin military equipment but still relies on Russian spare parts to maintain and sustain its large inventory of Russian-origin tanks and fighter aircraft that form the backbone of its military’s ability to counter perceived threats from China and Pakistan, the American expert feels.
Pakistan’s Stress on Nuclear Modernization
On Pakistan, Gen Kruse says that in 2026, the Pakistani military’s top priorities will likely remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours, rising attacks by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalist militants, counterterrorism efforts, and “nuclear modernization.”
He points out that despite Pakistan’s daily operations during the past year, militants killed more than 2,500 people in Pakistan in 2024.
Unlike India, which is primarily focused on China, Pakistan focus will be Indoa. Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernization effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage.
According to Gen.Kruse, Pakistan is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control. Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries, he adds.
Pak Tie-up With China
The US General notes that “Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse, and Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China’s PLA, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024.”
He further claims that “foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.”
However, terrorist attacks targeting Chinese workers who support China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects have emerged as a point of friction between the countries. Seven Chinese nationals were killed in Pakistan in 2024, Gen.Kruse points out.
Strained Ties with Iran and Afghanistan
Pakistan and Iran have taken steps, including high-level meetings, to deescalate tensions after the two countries conducted unilateral airstrikes on each other’s territory in January 2024 in response to cross-border terror attacks.
In September 2024, Taliban and Pakistani border forces clashed near border posts, resulting in the death of eight Taliban fighters. In March 2025, Pakistan and the Afghanistan exchanged air and artillery strikes on each other’s territory, each citing alleged militant infrastructure as the targets
Taliban Consolidates
Gen Kruse predicts that the Taliban almost certainly will remain firmly in control of Afghanistan during the next year and continue to combat ISIS-Khorasan and anti-Taliban resistance groups, though these groups still conduct deadly attacks in country.
His other observations on Afghanistan are: “The Taliban continues to restrict al-Qa’ida and its affiliates’ activities in accordance with the Taliban’s perception of its Doha Agreement obligations, though some al-Qa’ida elements probably circumvent these restrictions to provide modest covert support to the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan militant group.”
“The Taliban has made some progress toward gaining de facto recognition with regional partners, despite persistent concerns about the state of human rights, inclusive representation in government, and militancy in Afghanistan. Iran has met with the Taliban to discuss water rights and threats posed by terrorist groups, particularly ISIS-Khorasan and Jaysh al-Adl. India is pursuing low-level engagement with the Taliban, focused on humanitarian assistance, countering terrorism, and enabling private sector growth.”
Role of Russia and China
On the role of Russia and China in Afghanistan, Gen.Kruse says -“Russia is continuing to deepen its relationship with the Taliban, expressing its intent to formally recognize the government and cooperate against terrorism. In September 2024, the Russia Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson emphasized Russian efforts to remove the Taliban from Russia’s list of terrorist groups and develop multilateral cooperation while blaming the West for instability in the country.”
On China’s role in Afghanistan, Gen. Kruse recalls that in January 2024, China’s President Xi accepted the diplomatic credentials of a Taliban-appointed ambassador.
“The Taliban’s focus on improving internal security and reducing violence has enabled some foreign investments from China, including oil extraction and copper mining activities in Afghanistan.”
No mention of Other South Asian Countries
It is intriguing that Bangladesh and Myanmar do not figure in the report’s section on South Asia when US interest in both has increased in recent times.
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