By P.K. Balachandran
Colombo, October 25- Bihar, a large North Indian State with a population of 104 million, is going to elect a 243-member State Assembly on November 6 and 11. Results will be declared on November 14.
The Bihar elections are critical for the future of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Bihar as well as the NDA regime in New Delhi.
The results of the Bihar elections will set the tone for a string of State Assembly elections next year. Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu will go to the polls in May 2026. Except in Assam, the ruling parties in these States are non-NDA known generally as the INDIA bloc at the national level and the Mahagathbandan (MGB) in Bihar.
The opposition MGB, led by the Congress, is hoping to put up stiff resistance to NDA’s efforts to stay in power in Bihar. In the current Bihar State Assembly, the NDA has 132 seats in the House of 243 and the MGB has 111.
The competition in Bihar is so stiff and the issues raised in the campaign are of such national importance that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the NDA’s supremo, opted to campaign in Bihar rather attend the ASIAN summit in Malaysia where he could have met US President Donald Trump and sorted out the tariff issue.
Perhaps Modi wanted to avoid making even a verbal commitment to Trump on opening up the Indian dairy and agriculture sectors to US products, a sensitive matter in rural India.
Critical Issues
In Bihar, the key issues are poverty, the competition among the various castes for representation and the disenfranchisement that could be caused by the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
SIR became controversial because the opposition and the liberal civil society alleged that it was a device to disenfranchise large sections of the population particularly Muslims, Dalits and tribals which are not sure of voting for the NDA in great numbers.
For the SIR, every voter had to prove that he or she is a citizen of India and give proof of residence with a list of documents authorized by the ECI. But most Indians do not possess such documents, especially in Bihar which is an under-developed State. The ECI had banned the “Adhaar” card (which most Indians have) on the grounds that many non-citizens also have it.
While the Indian constitution guarantees universal adult franchise, the SIR put conditions that would disenfranchise hundreds of thousands. In fact, the exercise initially resulted in the exclusion of 650,000 voters, but later, on the intervention of the Supreme Court, the ECI accepted Adhaar cards and brought down the deleted number to 470,000.
This was also challenged in the Supreme Court as the details of the deleted persons had not been made available. Opposition leaders pointed out that the Supreme Court was not stern enough to stop the SIR though the ECI had no mandate to determine citizenship. Even the direction to the ECI to accept the Adhaar card was only a suggestion.
The next hearing in this landmark case is on November 4, two days before polling in Bihar, too late in the day to stop the election.
Caste Configurations
The status of castes and caste interests are a major criteria in voting behaviour in Bihar. Leaving aside constituencies reserved for Dalits and Tribes, the NDA has distributed tickets evenly between the Upper Castes, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs).
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)- a major constituent of the NDA – is banking mainly on the votes of the Hindu majority. It has not a fielded a single Muslim. But its ally, the Janata Dal United (JDU), has fielded a few Muslims. The Muslims constitute 18% of Bihar’s population.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), a constituent of the MGB, has fielded 18 Muslims. The RJD draws support from the Yadavs and Muslims.
The ticket distribution in JD(U) is heavily skewed in favour of the OBCs and EBCs. State Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s own caste group – the Kurmis – has been allotted 11 tickets.
The OBCs and EBCs are being targeted by parties since together, they comprise over half of Bihar’s population. According to the 2023 Bihar caste survey, the EBCs constitute 36% of the population and the OBCs 27%.
The EBCs are seen as holding the key to electoral success especially in close contests. With 130 sub-castes, including Nishads, Telis, Lohars and Kumhars, and spread across the State, the EBCs have influence in deciding electoral outcomes in over 120 seats in Bihar.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of JDU is well placed in relation to the EBC as it was he who granted 18% reservation for the EBCs in jobs and education in 2005. This has paid him dividends. The NDA is therefore set to gain by the Nitish-EBC equation.
However, the 2023 caste census revealed that the EBCs were excluded from powerful political posts and were lagging behind in government jobs. They might, therefore, evaluate the NDA from this point of view and the INDIA bloc might get some votes of the disgruntled.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has nominated 35 candidates from the Yadav community because its leader and Chief Ministerial candidate Tejaswi Yadav, is a Yadav, one of the dominant castes in Bihar.
Spoilers
The MGB and the NDA have a new challenger or rather a “spoiler” in this election – Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP). The JSP has already shown that it can hurt the NDA and the MGB.
In the by-elections for four Assembly seats in Bihar in November 2024, the JSP secured 10 % of the vote, which was roughly the difference in vote share between the NDA and MGB. The NDA won all the four by-elections but by narrower margins.
There are other players in the fray who could dent both the NDA and MGB, such as the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen and Aam Aadmi Party.
Give Aways
In a poverty-stricken State like Bihar, freebees and give aways play a key role in determining election outcomes. The NDA government in Bihar recently launched the “Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana”, offering INR 10,000 each to 75 lakh women to support self-employment and livelihood initiatives. This could be scaled up to INR 2 lakh depending on the success of a woman’s enterprise.
The scheme draws comparisons with similar welfare-driven poll strategies in states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. While the impact of the new initiative remains uncertain, the move clearly signals the NDA government’s intent to strengthen its support among women voters.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP’s “Ladli Behna Yojana”, which offered INR 1,250 per month to women, was seen as a “game changer” by experts in ensuring another term for the incumbent in 2023, according to Times Now. In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) coalition introduced a similar scheme named “Ladki Bahin Yojana” providing INR 1,500 to women, which proved effective. These women-oriented scheme were replicated in Chhattisgarh and Odisha ahead of the polls.
The Congress too did it in Karnataka, launching the “Gruha Lakshmi Scheme,” offering INR 2,000 to women, which was seen as a key factor in the party’s electoral victory. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha government in used a similar strategy to secure another term in 2024.
Unpredictable Outcome
It is still not clear which factors listed above will work in Bihar this time. But the general impression is that the NDA is better placed in terms of caste coalitions and a more decisive leadership. The NDA was also able to resolve, faster than the MGB, seat sharing challenges within the coalition.
But the most important factor is Prime Minister Modi’s direct involvement. His nationalistic credentials were seen in the way he had refused to bend before an armed challenge from Pakistan and the tariff war initiated by US President Trump.
Those who have studied political preferences of the Bihar electorate point out that the BJP-NDA’s Hindu nationalism has significant traction in the Hindu-majority State. Therefore, most Hindus might support the SIR’s undeclared intention to weed out Muslims on the grounds that they could well be infiltrators from Bangladesh.
Lastly, it is not clear if the masses in Bihar have grasped the ill-effects of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voters list. The MGB is counting on the controversy over the SIR to rake in votes and the NDA is hoping that it is not a factor.
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