by Vishvanath
Elections are a worrisome proposition for any government even if its approval ratings are high. The Rajapaksa-Wickremesinghe administration, whose popularity has reached its nadir, has been left with no alternative but to come to terms with the prospect of having to face an electoral contest in the next few months. The Election Commission (EC) has said the Local Government (LG) polls will be held early next year, according to a group of Opposition politicians who had a discussion with the EC on Wednesday (16).
Midterm elections
US midterm elections and their outcomes have generated much excitement not only among the players involved in power games in Washington but also a bunch of politicians more than 14,000 km away; Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, on Thursday, treated the Opposition to a brief lecture on US midterm elections or midterms, as they are commonly known. He did so when an SJB MP, referring to the US midterms, called upon President Ranil Wickremesinghe to hold a general election and prove that the government still had a mandate to govern the country. A visibly agitated PM sprang to his feet and asked the Opposition to study the US electoral system properly before making statements on them in the House. He said the US Constitution provided for midterms whereas there was no such constitutional requirement in Sri Lanka.
The US midterms are held, half way through the President’s four-year term, to the Congress, which is bicameral and consists of the Senate and the House of Representatives. These electoral contests keep the serving Presidents of the US on tenterhooks, as their outcomes have a direct bearing on their ability to rule, and serve as a barometer of public opinion. President Joe Biden must have heaved a sigh of relief when his Democratic Party retained its hold on the US Senate, the other day, despite a surge in the Republicans’ popularity.
Lankan Presidents’ worst fear
Sri Lankan Presidents may not have midterms to worry about, but some elections can happen during their terms either to the parliament or the Provincial Councils or the local government institutions. Such contests could be as worrisome as midterms.
J. R. Jayewardene, who introduced the current Constitution and became the President in 1978 after the UNP’s mammoth victory at the 1977 general election, did not have to face major elections during his first term. He however failed to steer the UNP to victory at the Kalawana by-election held in 1981 following the unseating by the Supreme Court of UNP MP Abeyratne Pilapitiya, who won that seat in 1977. That defeat prompted the UNP to do everything in its power thereafter to suppress the Opposition and resort to unbridled violence and malpractices to win elections to consolidate its hold on power. The UNP won the District Development Council elections in 1981, but suffered a humiliating defeat in Jaffna.
President Jayewardene, after securing a second term at the 1982 presidential election, avoided parliamentary polls by holding a referendum two months later. The UNP had to face 18 by-elections in May 1983 in the electorates where it had failed to obtain majorities at the previous year’s referendum. Those elections were marred by violence and rigging, and the UNP won 14 of them. SLFP stalwarts Amarasiri Dodangoda, Richard Pathirana, and Anil Moonesinghe won the Baddegama, Akmeemana and Matugama electorates; MEP leader and current PM Gunawardena won the Maharagama electorate. The SLFP succeeded in unseating the UNP MP Ananda Kularatne in Mulkirigala, but he won the seat again at the by-election that followed in 1985. With that, by-elections came to an end in Sri Lanka; they cannot be held under the current Proportional Representation (PR) system as MPs are elected on the basis of electoral districts and not electorates as such.
The UNP contested Provincial Council election during the second term of President Jayewardene in 1988, and won them except in the merged North-East by unleashing violence and stuffing ballot boxes. President Ranasinghe Premadasa, who won the 1988 presidential election faced a general election the following year itself amidst JVP terror, and the UNP managed to obtain a comfortable majority thanks to violence and election malpractices it resorted with impunity. He steered the UNP to victory at the local government elections in 1991 before being assassinated two years later.
D. B. Wijetunga, who was elected President by the parliament, following the assassination of President Premadasa, led the UNP at the Provincial Council elections (1993), and the parliamentary and presidential polls (1994) unsuccessfully. The UNP lost power for the first time in 17 years during his stewardship. The 1993 Provincial Council polls marked a turning point in Sri Lankan politics with Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga becoming the Chief Minister of the Western Province, and securing the premiership and the presidency in quick succession the following year, as the leader of the SLFP-led People’s Alliance (PA) coalition.
During President Kumaratunga’s first term, the PA won the 1997 LG polls, and resorted to violence and various malpractices to win the Provincial Council polls. She secured a second term at the 1999 presidential election, on the eve of which she survived an assassination bid. The PA won the first general election during her second term in 2000, but lost power in the parliament due to mass crossovers in 2001, when the UNP defeated her coalition at a snap general election. She turned the tables on the UNP at the 2004 parliamentary polls by forming the SLFP-led United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) with the JVP as a constituent, before retiring in 2005.
Mahinda Rajapaksa, who became President in 2005, led the UPFA, at countless Provincial Council and local government elections, which he staggered whimsically, and won the 2010 presidential election and enabled his party to score a comfortable victory at parliamentary election a few months later. He however lost the 2015 presidential election and became the first Sri Lankan President to be defeated while in power. His successor Maithripala Sirisena’s party, the SLFP and the UNP led by the then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe managed to postpone the Provincial Council elections in 2017, unable to face them, but lost the first election—the local government polls—the Yahapalana government was compelled to hold in 2018. President Sirisena did not seek a second term, and the SLFP avoided a crushing defeat at the 2020 general election by coalescing with the SLPP. The UNP was reduced to a single National List seat.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa faced the first test of his popularity in 2020 less than one year after winning the presidential contest. His party, the SLPP, secured 145 seats at the general election held in that year and mustered a two-thirds majority with the help of crossovers. But he had to resign in midterm!
President Ranil Wickremesinghe, elected by the parliament, is facing the prospect of having to hold an election. It is too early for the UNP to face an election. The SLPP succeeded in postponing the LG polls by one year, thereby avoiding an electoral setback, but the EC is now constitutionally empowered to hold them.
Govt.’s worst fears realized?
The EC’s undertaking to conduct the LG polls in time for the local councils to be constituted latest by March 20, 2023 has gladdened the hearts of all Opposition politicians, who handed over a petition to the EC on Wednesday calling for the mini polls. After their meetings with the EC, several of them sounded triumphant when they spoke to reporters. Among them was Opposition and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa, who said he was confident that the LG polls would be held without further delay.
Government politicians must be spending sleepless nights. They fear nothing more than an election at this juncture. The EC will now have to announce the date of the LG polls latest by January 09 so that the local councils could be formed on March 20, 2023. (There has to be a gap of two weeks between the announcement of the elections and the submission of nominations; a period of five weeks is required for preparatory work and the conduct of the elections, and the formation of the local councils after the announcement of the election results requires another three weeks. Thus, all in all, there will have to be 10 weeks or 70 days between the announcement of the elections and the formation of the councils.)
The government is not likely to give up easily, and will try every trick in the book to postpone the LG polls although it seems to be in a spot. When President Wickremesinghe announced the government’s decision to appoint a Parliamentary Select Committee on electoral reforms, the Opposition said it was a ruse to put off the LG polls. He has since appointed the National Delimitation Commission with former EC Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya as its head to re-demarcate wards in local government areas. Deshapriya has drawn heavy flak for allegedly helping the government with what is described as a sinister plan to postpone the LG polls, a charge he has vehemently denied. He has said the delimitation process can in no way be used to postpone elections. The Opposition is now asking the government to make funds available for the LG polls, the implication of its demand being that there is a move to block financial allocations for the elections.
What’s up the government’s sleeve is anybody’s guess. The chances of either the SLPP or the UNP winning the LG polls are extremely remote. It was the 2018 LG elections that marked the beginning of the end of the UNP-SLFP government. Odds are that the current UNP-SLPP administration will face a similar fate. But anything is possible in politics, which is full of uncertainties and surprises.