There seems to be no light at the end of the proverbial tunnel for Sri Lankans, who are undergoing untold hardships with the government doing precious little to resolve the worsening economic crisis, much less grant them relief. Fuel supplies have run out, and people are fighting at filling stations. Having closed the country for all practical purposes, the government is asking the resentful public to exercise patience until 10 July, when, it says, it will restore the fuel supply. Apart from sending some ministers to oil-producing countries such as Russia and Qatar to negotiate petroleum deals, it has not done anything serious that could instill hope in the public. It is entirely dependent on India for bridge loans pending IMF assistance, which is not forthcoming.
If the government continues to grope in the dark, instead of making a determined bid to resolve the fuel crisis, food riots are bound to erupt; the food supply chain is very likely to collapse for want of diesel. Only a few private buses are operating at present and they too will run out of diesel in a few days, their owners have warned. The government has asked people to work from home, but most institutions and workers are not equipped to do so. Parents are worried about their children’s education; most schools have been closed owing to transport problems. Online education is not possible where the vast majority of school goers are concerned.
It is only natural that the government is coming under increasing pressure to step down, and the campaign to oust it is bound to gather momentum as the economic crisis worsens and inflation rises further. The electricity tariff hike on the cards will fuel public anger further. The least the government can do to pacify the public is to ensure a reliable supply of diesel, petrol, kerosene and cooking gas and prevent the country from crippled. Mere promises will be of no use.
UNP’s leap of faith
The anti-government protesters including the Opposition politicians earlier sought the ouster of only the Rajapaksas. There was a let up in their protests after the resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. But today Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has also become a marked target. It is widely thought that the Rajapaksa family handpicked him as a proxy to further its interests. Hence protests near his official residence.
It may not be fair to expect PM Wickremesinghe to begin to deliver so soon, but that is the way the cookie crumbles in politics. The person who steps in, promising to play a messianic role is expected to deliver from the word go. When the people are desperate for relief, they are not ready to wait; worse, they do not reason.
The UNP raised people’s expectations unnecessarily prior to the appointment of Wickremesinghe as the PM; he was made out to be an economic miracle man, who could raise billions of dollars and make fuel queues disappear almost overnight. Wickremesinghe started signing a different tune after securing the premiership; he began warning of the worst times ahead as if to tell the public not to expect him to sort out the economy anytime soon. But the people are in no mood to wait; they need relief fast. They want government leaders to deliver or depart. It is only natural that public opinion has turned against PM Wickremesinghe as well, and calls are being made for the ouster of the Rajapaksa-Wickremesinghe government. The UNP has launched a social media campaign in defence of Wickremesinghe, but propaganda alone will be of little use in changing public opinion, which has turned against him.
There was absolutely no hope for the UNP after its humiliating defeat at the 2020 general election, and the appointment of its leader as the PM came as a political windfall. It must have expected to gain a lot of political mileage from his appointment, and prepare itself for the next election. But its plan seems to have gone awry if the rising tide of public opinion against the PM and the government is any indication. The UNP has now been bracketed with the SLPP.
SJB intensifying attack
The SJB, which was overshadowed by the Galle Face protest, which has now run out of steam, is intensifying its anti-government campaign. It has an axe to grind with PM Wickremesinghe, who has succeeded in winning over two of its frontline members—Manusha Nanayakkara and Harin Fernando—who are in the Cabinet, and defending the government to the hilt while faulting Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa for having turned down an invitation from President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to accept the premiership in April.
The SJB is demanding that President Rajapaksa step down, paving the way for a national unity government to resolve the economic crisis, and prepare the country for a general election. It made this demand previously, but softened its stand on the eve of the appointment of PM Wickremesinghe; it said it was willing to form a government on the condition that a timeframe was set for the President’s resignation. But the President had already promised to appoint Wickremesinghe Prime Minister. The SJB therefore seems to be trying to dislodge the current government and form an all-party interim administration with Premadasa as the PM. The SJB cannot be unaware that unless the present crisis persists, the SJB will not be able to govern the country even if it succeeds in winning the next general election. Its battle plan appears to be forming a caretaker government with the participation of all political parties with parliamentary representation, containing the crisis, taking the credit for it and facing an election. This approach makes political sense.
The SJB, however, is not capable of bringing enough pressure to bear on the government to step down. It needs the support of others, which seems to be forthcoming. The SLFP led by former President Maithripala Sirisena is also asking for a multi-party caretaker government. It says the current administration does not reflect the composition of the parliament and, more than anything else, has failed to manage the crisis. The JVP has made a similar call, but it changes its tune from time to time. Earlier it asked the entire government to resign. Now, it is asking that the reins of government be handed over to it for the economy to be turned around in just six months!
The common denominator among the anti-government forces including the SLPP dissidents is that the current administration has to be dislodged and a truly multi-party interim government formed for a concerted effort to be made to overcome the crisis. They may be carrying out separate campaigns against the government, but what matters in the final analysis is the cumulative impact of their agitations, and they may be able to achieve their common objective—forming a national unity government. With the economic situation worsening and social order collapsing, the President might have to accede to their demand for want of a better alternative. IMF assistance is not likely to come anytime soon, and only a substantial bridge loan, or several fuel shipments on credit to end endless queues, within the next two weeks or so will give the current administration a fighting chance. The signs are that it is fighting a losing battle.
