Turkiye’s Islamic ambitions, religious commonality and territorial conflicts with neighbours bring the trio together
By P.K.Balachandran
Colombo, May 31 -An axis between Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan came to be noticed in South Asia during the May 7 to 10 India-Pakistan war. Turkiye and Azerbaijan openly backed Pakistan when India accused Islamabad of killing 26 Hindus in Kashmir on April 22 and launched air strikes against Pakistan.
The Turkish media dubbed the terror strike as an “Indian Flag Operation” done with an ulterior political motive. Azerbaijan backed the Pakistani line.
After the short air war in which the Pakistan air force performed creditably, Pakistanis have been celebrating the tripartite alliance while Indians have been railing against it and imposing an informal boycott of Turkish products and companies.
The Turkiye-Pakistan-Azerbaijan axis is based on three factors-
(1) all three are Islamic;
(2) Azerbaijan and Pakistan have been having a religious cum territorial conflict with their neighbours Armenia and India respectively. While Armenia is Christian, India is Hindu. Being an Islamic country, Turkiye has been supporting Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over Nogorno-Karabakh and Pakistan in its conflict with India over Kashmir.
Nogorno-Karabakh is a Christian-Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. It has been wanting to be independent but Azerbaijan has been opposing it. Turkiye and Armenia have been supporting the Nogorno-Karabakhian cause both militarily and in international forums. And Armenia is supported by Christian Russia and Hindu India.
(3) Turkiye has ambitions of being a powerful international player, especially in the Islamic world, challenging the leadership of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
In an article in Turkiye’s Anadolu Agency, Dr. Furkan Kaya, Associate Professor at Yeditepe University, says: “One of the most important features of this strategic triangle is the potential for establishing a multifaceted direct dialogue between the Turkic world and the South Asian Islamic world.”
He recalls that during Turkiye’s struggle to re-establish itself after World War I, significant support was provided by Asian Muslims which resulted in the founding of the Republic of Turkiye.
Sultan Zahidov, advisor at the Centre for the Analysis of International Relations told Anadolou Agency that the friendship and strategic partnership formed between Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan, is based mutual trust. When tensions arose between Pakistan and India, Islamabad first reached out to Turkiye and Azerbaijan. Similarly, Turkiye and Pakistan’s support for Azerbaijan during the Second Karabakh War is a clear example of the unwavering solidarity within this union. In the ‘Three Brothers’ military exercises held in Baku in 2021, Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan demonstrated their potential to form a bloc based on common security and national values.
Dr. Furkan Kaya writes that the foundation of cooperation between Turkiye and Pakistan is cooperation between the defence industries of the two countries. A US$ 1.5 billion contract signed with Pakistan in 2018, resulted in the delivery of the “Babur” class frigates to Pakistan.
With the declaration signed in Shusha on June 15, 2021 by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Azerbijanian counterpart Ilham Aliyev, relations between the two countries were officially raised to the level of a “strategic alliance.” In 2023, with the “Mustafa Kemal Atatürk” exercise held in Nakhchivan, the two countries demonstrating their joint military capabilities and military integration.
The current international system is undergoing a period of serious tectonic changes. The increase in conflicts and wars in different regions, and the insufficient effectiveness of international organizations, especially the UN, in resolving these problems directs States towards regional cooperation. In this context, the formation of new alliances in trilateral and quadrilateral formats becomes relevant.
This strategic line formed by Ankara, Baku, and Islamabad covers the most sensitive regions of Eurasia. In addition to ensuring the security of both East-West and North-South transport corridors, this axis has the potential to contribute to the stability and economic development of the Eurasian continent.
Future transport, energy, and trade projects to be implemented will further strengthen this trilateral cooperation.
In this movement, Turkiye has been a leader in the Eurasian region. According to Foreign Affairs, Turkey now has the third-highest number of diplomatic missions in the world, trailing only China and the United States. And in conflicts in the South Caucasus, the Black Sea region, and the Middle East and North Africa, Turkey has played an increasingly assertive role.
“Throughout Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011, the Turkiye had boldly opposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and provided material support to groups fighting against his rule. It did so even when Assad, backed by Iran and Russia, appeared to have a stranglehold on power, and the conflict itself caused millions of Syrian refugees to flee to Turkey, creating security risks along Turkey’s long southern border with Syria. Yet 13 years later, in December 2024, the Assad regime collapsed. Against all odds, Turkey’s policy had paid off. Ankara’s adversary is gone, and the victory of Turkish-supported opposition groups has given it a direct line to Damascus,” Foreign Affairs notes..
Today, Ankara’s ties to the non-Western world are growing. Gaining influence across the global South has become a main pillar of Turkey’s strategy. In 2002, the country’s volume of trade with Asian countries, including China and Russia, was only half its volume of trade with the European Union. Two decades later, Turkey’s trade with Asia had surpassed its trade with Europe. Turkish Airlines, the national flag carrier, now flies to 130 countries, branding itself as the company that “flies to the most countries in the world.”
Regional instability and the deterioration of security ties with Western partners have also compelled Turkey to develop domestic defence and aerospace technologies. Large-scale government and private investments have fuelled the growth of Turkey’s drone industry. The Bayraktar TB2 drone has been used in various conflicts, including in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, and Ukraine, and is now exported to more than 30 countries. By 2024, Turkey’s total defence and aerospace exports soared to US$ 7.2 billion—a nearly 30% increase over the previous year. As of 2023, three Turkish defence contractors are among the world’s top 100 arms revenue earners.
In 2012, Turkey became a dialogue partner of the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Turkey also joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2015, hoping to unite its own Middle Corridor project—which envisions transport infrastructure connecting East Asia to Europe via Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey—with the Belt and Road Initiative in one big transcontinental network.
On the Russian-Chinese side, Turkey’s economic interest is deepening. In 2024, total trade with these two countries reached $101 billion, accounting for almost 17% of Turkey’s overall external trade. But these trade ties are highly asymmetric—Turkey’s total exports to Russia and China were only $12 billion last year—which significantly contributes to Turkey’s external trade deficits.
The Turkish economy still needs Western markets and capital to sustain its growth; Turkey exports roughly as much to the EU as it imports and almost 70% of foreign direct investment comes from the EU and the United States.
Foreign Affairs warns that being dragged into a trade, technology, and sanctions war between Western actors and the Russian-Chinese axis could lead to significant economic turbulence for Turkiye. The journal says, that Turkiye may have to modify its ambitions and be more measured in its policy formulations and actions.
India’s case should be a warning. India’s bid for strategic autonomy vigorously pursued by Foreign Minister S.Jaishankar with an aggressive stance against the US and the EU despite dependence on them for defence and trade, failed to yield dividends when India needed their support most, that is, during the short war with Pakistan in early May. Only two countries supported India – Israel and Afghanistan. Others were mute spectators.
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