By Vishvanath
Sri Lankan politicians usually take their political battles beyond the country’s national boundaries. This practice has a long history.In the late 1980s, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was an Opposition firebrand at the time and his soulmate, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, submitted a petition to the UNHRC against the then Premadasa government over human rights violations, especially widespreadextrajudicial killings, torture and involuntary disappearances, which characterized the UNP regime’s military campaign to crush the JVP uprising. Their petition arguably had more to do with their politics than any concern for human rights. The UNHRC is currently inundated with complaints against Sri Lanka over human rights issues. Besides, there have been instances where politicians out of power lodged complaints with the Commonwealth institutionsagainst the Speakers of Parliament for suppressing the rights of the Opposition. The SJB-led opposition parties are currently finalising drafts of complaints to be sent to the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association and the Inter-Parliamentary Union against Speaker Dr. Jagath Wickremeratne for allegedly suppressing its parliamentary rights and privileges.
In addition to formal complaints to international organizations, Sri Lankan politicians also carry out attacks on their political rivals, in other countries, when they meet Sri Lankan expatriates. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake did so in Tokyo the other day. He took a swipe at the Opposition during a meeting with a group of Sri Lankans. He said ongoing arrests had terrified the Opposition parties to the extent of driving them to close ranks for self-preservation. Warning that arrests would continue for the next four years or so, he claimed that hispolitical rivals’ fear was such that as many as 40 political party leaders had recently been crammed into a small room to discussways and means of protecting their interests. His statement was tantamount to an admission that the government had unwittingly provided the Opposition with a fresh rallying point. Usually, agovernment gains politically not from its rivals’ unity but their disunity. Hence attempts by governments to cause splits in the Opposition the way all President Dissanayake’s predecessors did effectively, Mahinda Rajapaksa standing out among them.
The coming together of oppositional forces is not to be taken lightly however weak they may be individually. They are a force to be reckoned with. It was a mere show of unity that triggered a political process that led to the collapse of the powerful Mahinda Rajapaksa government in 2015. One may recall that the UNP was experiencing a leadership struggle between its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and his deputy Sajith Premadasa during the heyday of the Rajapaksa government, which was on a winning streak. But in the run-up to the Sept., 2014 Uva PC poll Ranil and Sajith patched up their differences and appeared on the same platform holding hands together with other UNP seniors, boosting the morale of their supporters.
Their rapprochement stood the Opposition in good stead and led to the SLFP-led UPFA’s ‘poor’ performance in the Sept. 2014 Uva Provincial Council election. The UPFA managed to secure the council but could retain only 19 out of 25 seats it had previously, and the UNP obtained 13 seats (an increase of 6 seats), and the JVP 2 (an increase of one seat). The UPFA’s votes decreased from 418,906 (72%) in the 2009 Uva PC election to 349,906 (51%), indicating a drop in popular support. Shashindra Rajapaksa was the UPFA chief ministerial candidate. That setback for the Rajapaksa family benefited the UNP in the presidential election that followed in January 2015. The UNP was able to ensure the election of the common presidential candidate of the Opposition, Maithripala Sirisena, as President, form an interim administration and return to power by winning a general election held a few months later.
What made Sirisena’s victory possible was a massive swing in the electorate, with a large number of voters who had backed the Rajapaksa administration in 2010 switching their allegiances to the Opposition alliance, which came to be dubbed the Yahapalanacamp. These swing voters rallied behind Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the 2019 presidential election, enabling the SLPP’s rise to power, with the Rajapaksa family at the helm. Those who had suffered a humiliating defeat in 2015 made a comeback. In 2024, the floating voters, disillusioned with the SLPP due to corruption, abuse of power and the economic crisis, threw their weight behind the NPP and Dissanayake. Thus, there is no guarantee that they will not swing for some other party in a future election if the NPP does not live up to their expectations or something big happens upsetting the NPP’s winning streak, which has shown signs of tailing off, as evident from the outcome of the May 06 Local Government polls is any indication. The government has placed greater emphasis on welfare measures, state sector employment, its anti-corruption drive coupled with high-profile arrests and propaganda in a bid to shore up its support base. Whether its efforts will yield the intended results remains to be seen.
Another interesting development full of political significance was reported recently. However, it escaped the attention of the print media. This is understandable given the rate at which political issues crop up in this country, where countless press conferences are held daily. Addressing the media recently, member of the NPP lawyers’ association, Hemaka Senanayake, at a recent media briefing, sought to ridicule the coming together of the Opposition forces to countervail the NPP. He said adversity had made them close ranks for self-preservation vis-a-vis the government’s anti-corruption drive, which had already led to the prosecution of several key Opposition figures. Claiming that what was being flaunted as a grand Opposition alliance was nothing more than a fissiparous outfit of disparate spent forces without any political future, he said it was bound to fall apart when it had to decide who its next presidential candidate was. His remark, which went unnoticed by political commentators, could be considered a Freudian slip. He can be thought to have unwittingly indicated that the NPP is going to contest the next presidential election, for the implication of his statement is that another presidential election will be held and the NPP has already decided on its presidential candidate unlike its rivals. If the NPP is serious about scrapping the executive presidency, it need not challenge its political rivals to name their presidential candidates.
Attacks and counterattacks are the name of the game in politics. The NPP has apparently decided to intensify propaganda attacks on the Opposition, which is using the assets of JVP leaders in a bid to discredit the government and turn public opinion against it. The Opposition can shore up its vote base with propaganda, but the government has to retain popular support by delivering on its promises, the main being granting economic relief to the public.
